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	<title>Comments on: China, Congress, and commercialized launch</title>
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	<description>Because sometimes the most important orbit is the Beltway...</description>
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		<title>By: Al Fansome</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2006/04/10/china-congress-and-commercialized-launch/#comment-7608</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Al Fansome]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Apr 2006 16:48:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.districtofbaseball.com/spacepolitics/?p=930#comment-7608</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jim,

Considering that this site is called &quot;Space Politics&quot;, I thought that most of the people here understand that the core underlying reason for Apollo was about &quot;national security&quot; and &quot;politics&quot; and had almost nothing to do with a &quot;space objective.&quot;

After we beat the Soviets to the Moon, we had achieved the overriding purpose.  Which was to demonstrate that countries based on democracy &amp; capitalism was superior to those based on communism.  (There are books written with this as the core theme.)

FYI, once Apollo&#039;s political purpose was complete, it was IRRELEVANT that it was technically feasible to put humans on Mars by 1982.

Many engineers tend to forget that space is fundamentally political at its core.  As they say &quot;politics always wins&quot;.

- Al

PS -- If you don&#039;t like this reality, great, join the rest of us.  This is one more good reason for supporting a much stronger commercial space agenda.  A profitable and triving commercial space industry is the best way to eliminate the need to ask politicians, year in and year out, for taxpayer funds.  

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jim,</p>
<p>Considering that this site is called &#8220;Space Politics&#8221;, I thought that most of the people here understand that the core underlying reason for Apollo was about &#8220;national security&#8221; and &#8220;politics&#8221; and had almost nothing to do with a &#8220;space objective.&#8221;</p>
<p>After we beat the Soviets to the Moon, we had achieved the overriding purpose.  Which was to demonstrate that countries based on democracy &#038; capitalism was superior to those based on communism.  (There are books written with this as the core theme.)</p>
<p>FYI, once Apollo&#8217;s political purpose was complete, it was IRRELEVANT that it was technically feasible to put humans on Mars by 1982.</p>
<p>Many engineers tend to forget that space is fundamentally political at its core.  As they say &#8220;politics always wins&#8221;.</p>
<p>&#8211; Al</p>
<p>PS &#8212; If you don&#8217;t like this reality, great, join the rest of us.  This is one more good reason for supporting a much stronger commercial space agenda.  A profitable and triving commercial space industry is the best way to eliminate the need to ask politicians, year in and year out, for taxpayer funds.  </p>
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		<title>By: Paul Dietz</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2006/04/10/china-congress-and-commercialized-launch/#comment-7607</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Paul Dietz]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Apr 2006 15:12:22 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Jim: &#039;will&#039; is not an independent variable.  It&#039;s a consequence of the costs and benefits of a policy.  We don&#039;t have any great will to go back to the moon because for most people it has no compelling justification.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jim: &#8216;will&#8217; is not an independent variable.  It&#8217;s a consequence of the costs and benefits of a policy.  We don&#8217;t have any great will to go back to the moon because for most people it has no compelling justification.</p>
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		<title>By: Jim Rohrich</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2006/04/10/china-congress-and-commercialized-launch/#comment-7606</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Rohrich]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Apr 2006 06:36:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.districtofbaseball.com/spacepolitics/?p=930#comment-7606</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Sorry, I don&#039;t believe the Chinese bring anything to the table that helps the United States get to the Moon more quickly.  Going back to my first post... the competition (Soviet Union) didn&#039;t disappear after we landed on the Moon.  Nor did it disappear after our last manned mission to the Moon in Dec 1972.  What went away, in my opinion, was a lack of resolve politically on our part.  We chose not to compete.  We had the means... but not the will. Von Braun outlined a plan to have Americans on Mars by 1982.  If followed, another &quot;Apollo&quot; type program would of worked getting us to Mars.  We&#039;ve had 30 years of sitting around after a &quot;space race&quot;.  And you&#039;re wondering why were not going anywhere in space?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sorry, I don&#8217;t believe the Chinese bring anything to the table that helps the United States get to the Moon more quickly.  Going back to my first post&#8230; the competition (Soviet Union) didn&#8217;t disappear after we landed on the Moon.  Nor did it disappear after our last manned mission to the Moon in Dec 1972.  What went away, in my opinion, was a lack of resolve politically on our part.  We chose not to compete.  We had the means&#8230; but not the will. Von Braun outlined a plan to have Americans on Mars by 1982.  If followed, another &#8220;Apollo&#8221; type program would of worked getting us to Mars.  We&#8217;ve had 30 years of sitting around after a &#8220;space race&#8221;.  And you&#8217;re wondering why were not going anywhere in space?</p>
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		<title>By: Jeff Foust</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2006/04/10/china-congress-and-commercialized-launch/#comment-7605</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jeff Foust]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Apr 2006 17:51:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.districtofbaseball.com/spacepolitics/?p=930#comment-7605</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I negelected to respond to one part of Mr. Rohrich&#039;s comment above that has been largely ignored in the resulting conversation:

&lt;i&gt;You have to wonder why Dr. Foust is against competition.&lt;/i&gt;

I&#039;m not against competition in general.  The problem is that the best example of competition in space&#8212;the Space Race between the US and USSR in the 1960s&#8212;had long-term negative consequences that have arguably outweighed the positive short-term benefits from racing to the Moon.  As I noted in &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thespacereview.com/article/25/1&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;an article nearly three years ago&lt;/a&gt;, in an earlier bubble of US-China space race hysteria:

&lt;blockquote&gt;Given what has happened in the three decades since the end of Apollo, one can argue that a high-intensity, short-duration space race like the one between the US and USSR is one of the worst things one can do to advance space exploration short of abandoning it altogether. The 1960s space race created institutions and bureaucracies that needed to be served after the race was over and warped expectations of what a realistic space program was for the worse. And, yet despite all of this, there are people who want to create a new space race with a new opponent.&lt;/blockquote&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I negelected to respond to one part of Mr. Rohrich&#8217;s comment above that has been largely ignored in the resulting conversation:</p>
<p><i>You have to wonder why Dr. Foust is against competition.</i></p>
<p>I&#8217;m not against competition in general.  The problem is that the best example of competition in space&#8212;the Space Race between the US and USSR in the 1960s&#8212;had long-term negative consequences that have arguably outweighed the positive short-term benefits from racing to the Moon.  As I noted in <a href="http://www.thespacereview.com/article/25/1" rel="nofollow">an article nearly three years ago</a>, in an earlier bubble of US-China space race hysteria:</p>
<blockquote><p>Given what has happened in the three decades since the end of Apollo, one can argue that a high-intensity, short-duration space race like the one between the US and USSR is one of the worst things one can do to advance space exploration short of abandoning it altogether. The 1960s space race created institutions and bureaucracies that needed to be served after the race was over and warped expectations of what a realistic space program was for the worse. And, yet despite all of this, there are people who want to create a new space race with a new opponent.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>By: Dwayne A. Day</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2006/04/10/china-congress-and-commercialized-launch/#comment-7604</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dwayne A. Day]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Apr 2006 17:49:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.districtofbaseball.com/spacepolitics/?p=930#comment-7604</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nemo wrote:
&quot;Very well, Dr. Day. In the future you may address me as &quot;Captain&quot;.&quot;

&quot;Dr.&quot; ain&#039;t necessary, as I cannot write prescriptions.  I was going to call you &quot;Finding.&quot;

But this discussion isn&#039;t worth continuing.  I&#039;ll take my (desperate, dangerously naive, ignorant) comments elsewhere.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nemo wrote:<br />
&#8220;Very well, Dr. Day. In the future you may address me as &#8220;Captain&#8221;.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;Dr.&#8221; ain&#8217;t necessary, as I cannot write prescriptions.  I was going to call you &#8220;Finding.&#8221;</p>
<p>But this discussion isn&#8217;t worth continuing.  I&#8217;ll take my (desperate, dangerously naive, ignorant) comments elsewhere.</p>
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		<title>By: Rand Simberg</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2006/04/10/china-congress-and-commercialized-launch/#comment-7603</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Rand Simberg]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Apr 2006 00:45:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.districtofbaseball.com/spacepolitics/?p=930#comment-7603</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;em&gt;If it succeeds over the long haul, the Space Station, or its eventual replacement, is likely to become a center for international research, and potentially even trade.&lt;/em&gt;

The likelihood of ISS &quot;succeeding over the long haul,&quot; give its bastard origins and fundamental design features (including its location) are vanishingly small.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>If it succeeds over the long haul, the Space Station, or its eventual replacement, is likely to become a center for international research, and potentially even trade.</em></p>
<p>The likelihood of ISS &#8220;succeeding over the long haul,&#8221; give its bastard origins and fundamental design features (including its location) are vanishingly small.</p>
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		<title>By: al Fansome</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2006/04/10/china-congress-and-commercialized-launch/#comment-7602</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[al Fansome]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Apr 2006 23:29:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.districtofbaseball.com/spacepolitics/?p=930#comment-7602</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;i&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;


Donald,

I personally hope the ISS will some day become a &quot;center for international trade&quot;.  Perhaps the best spokesperson for this &quot;vision&quot; was Rick Tumlinson of the Space Frontier Foundation when he introduced the &quot;AlphaTown&quot; concept in the mid-1990s.  IMO, the privatization of the supply chain to ISS (via COTS) is perhaps the most important initiative taking place at NASA these days.  I would suggest it is more important than the VSE.  

As I said, &quot;I hope&quot;.

That being said, the ISS is not an international center of trade right now, so your suggestion that we using the ISS as a free trade-like tool will not work.  If ISS was a center of international trade, and there were lots of profits to be made (on both sides), this might be a different case.  Some day in the future this may happen.  If so, that will be a good day.

The real benefits of joining ISS these days are primarily about &quot;national prestige&quot;.  They have to do with diplomacy and being allowed to join an exclusive club of democratic nations.  They are not economic.  They are not scientific.

Also, since free trade on Earth is working so well at creating the &quot;peace dividend&quot; benefit, there is little chance of a hot war between the U.S. and China in the near future (excepting a bad day in Taiwan).  Therefore, we don&#039;t need to allow China to ISS for a diplomatic peace-benefit with China, like we generated in Apollo-Soyuz.  

Finally, Nemo separately mentioned how using ISS as a diplomatic tool has failed.  From both the left and the right.  The Clinton Administration theory was that adding Russia into ISS would reduce the demand for Russian scientists and engineers to work for rogue states on ballistic missiles and WMD.  The problem is that we have demonstrable proof that it did not work, or at least was not sufficient.  Russia has thumbed its nose at the U.S., both in Iraq, and Iran, because both of those countries were willing to do billions in trade with Russia.  A little space station deal does not make a difference.  The &quot;ISS diplimacy&quot; deal failed on the right from the Iran Non-proliferation Act (INA).  The Republicans in Congress passed INA in 2000, thinking they could do the job better than the Clinton Administration, and 5 years later Russia was still dealing with Iran.

The truth is that space station foreign policy deals are a VERY WEAK and ineffective response to issues dealing with economics and foreign policy.  Recent history has proven this.  We need much stronger tools.

For example, Russia would probably listen a lot more to the U.s. about Iran if we threatened to block their joining the WTO.

The same goes with China.  If we want something from China, like them to stop sending missiles to other countries, space is a very weak bargaining chip. 

- Al

&lt;/i&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>>>></p>
<p>Donald,</p>
<p>I personally hope the ISS will some day become a &#8220;center for international trade&#8221;.  Perhaps the best spokesperson for this &#8220;vision&#8221; was Rick Tumlinson of the Space Frontier Foundation when he introduced the &#8220;AlphaTown&#8221; concept in the mid-1990s.  IMO, the privatization of the supply chain to ISS (via COTS) is perhaps the most important initiative taking place at NASA these days.  I would suggest it is more important than the VSE.  </p>
<p>As I said, &#8220;I hope&#8221;.</p>
<p>That being said, the ISS is not an international center of trade right now, so your suggestion that we using the ISS as a free trade-like tool will not work.  If ISS was a center of international trade, and there were lots of profits to be made (on both sides), this might be a different case.  Some day in the future this may happen.  If so, that will be a good day.</p>
<p>The real benefits of joining ISS these days are primarily about &#8220;national prestige&#8221;.  They have to do with diplomacy and being allowed to join an exclusive club of democratic nations.  They are not economic.  They are not scientific.</p>
<p>Also, since free trade on Earth is working so well at creating the &#8220;peace dividend&#8221; benefit, there is little chance of a hot war between the U.S. and China in the near future (excepting a bad day in Taiwan).  Therefore, we don&#8217;t need to allow China to ISS for a diplomatic peace-benefit with China, like we generated in Apollo-Soyuz.  </p>
<p>Finally, Nemo separately mentioned how using ISS as a diplomatic tool has failed.  From both the left and the right.  The Clinton Administration theory was that adding Russia into ISS would reduce the demand for Russian scientists and engineers to work for rogue states on ballistic missiles and WMD.  The problem is that we have demonstrable proof that it did not work, or at least was not sufficient.  Russia has thumbed its nose at the U.S., both in Iraq, and Iran, because both of those countries were willing to do billions in trade with Russia.  A little space station deal does not make a difference.  The &#8220;ISS diplimacy&#8221; deal failed on the right from the Iran Non-proliferation Act (INA).  The Republicans in Congress passed INA in 2000, thinking they could do the job better than the Clinton Administration, and 5 years later Russia was still dealing with Iran.</p>
<p>The truth is that space station foreign policy deals are a VERY WEAK and ineffective response to issues dealing with economics and foreign policy.  Recent history has proven this.  We need much stronger tools.</p>
<p>For example, Russia would probably listen a lot more to the U.s. about Iran if we threatened to block their joining the WTO.</p>
<p>The same goes with China.  If we want something from China, like them to stop sending missiles to other countries, space is a very weak bargaining chip. </p>
<p>&#8211; Al</p>
<p></i></p>
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		<title>By: Al Fansome</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2006/04/10/china-congress-and-commercialized-launch/#comment-7601</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Al Fansome]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Apr 2006 23:09:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.districtofbaseball.com/spacepolitics/?p=930#comment-7601</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dr. Day,

It was not my intention to insult you.  My apologies for &quot;appearing&quot; to insult you. 

Anyways, it appears that you are changing the subject (and making this one sentence the topic instead of responding to my core points.  Even by your stringent standards, well over 95% of my response was of a non-insulting and substantive nature.  

Do you want to debate and discuss the substance of the issue?

- Al]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dr. Day,</p>
<p>It was not my intention to insult you.  My apologies for &#8220;appearing&#8221; to insult you. </p>
<p>Anyways, it appears that you are changing the subject (and making this one sentence the topic instead of responding to my core points.  Even by your stringent standards, well over 95% of my response was of a non-insulting and substantive nature.  </p>
<p>Do you want to debate and discuss the substance of the issue?</p>
<p>&#8211; Al</p>
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		<title>By: Dwayne A. Day</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2006/04/10/china-congress-and-commercialized-launch/#comment-7600</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dwayne A. Day]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Apr 2006 22:31:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.districtofbaseball.com/spacepolitics/?p=930#comment-7600</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mr. Fansome wrote:
&quot;You seem desperate to reach out to China, and appear to want to ignore geopolitical realities.&quot;

Previously I was labeled &quot;dangerously naive.&quot;  Why is it necessary to resort to insults?  Why is it even necessary to visit my intentions?  Why isn&#039;t it possible to disagree with somebody without denigrating them?

I have tried to make it a rule to not respond to people who don&#039;t address the issues, but instead choose to attack the writer.  It&#039;s one of the primary reasons why I find blog commentary sections of limited utility.  I&#039;d rather waste my time more productively.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mr. Fansome wrote:<br />
&#8220;You seem desperate to reach out to China, and appear to want to ignore geopolitical realities.&#8221;</p>
<p>Previously I was labeled &#8220;dangerously naive.&#8221;  Why is it necessary to resort to insults?  Why is it even necessary to visit my intentions?  Why isn&#8217;t it possible to disagree with somebody without denigrating them?</p>
<p>I have tried to make it a rule to not respond to people who don&#8217;t address the issues, but instead choose to attack the writer.  It&#8217;s one of the primary reasons why I find blog commentary sections of limited utility.  I&#8217;d rather waste my time more productively.</p>
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		<title>By: Donald F. Robertson</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2006/04/10/china-congress-and-commercialized-launch/#comment-7599</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Donald F. Robertson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Apr 2006 21:31:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.districtofbaseball.com/spacepolitics/?p=930#comment-7599</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Okay, Al, How about this?

If it succeeds over the long haul, the Space Station, or its eventual replacement, is likely to become a center for international research, and potentially even trade.  Already, European countries are prepared to pay high political and financial prices -- and to try to force us to keep our promises to do the same -- not to write off their investments in the Space Station.  There is a long and successful history of government bases on Earth slowly growing into sites of commerce.  Already, the existance of the Space Station is forcing the nations of the world to keep certain launch vehicles and spacecraft alive, and to encourage commercial companies to develop new ones.  It seems at least possible that, if we do deploy a polar lunar base and use skipping polar reentries, a high-latitude LEO base may yet prove important for future deep-space expeditions.

I know that my &quot;vision&quot; here -- based more on my archaeological and historial backgrounds, than on a technical one -- is not widely subscribed.  However, for the sake of arguement, let&#039;s assume that I am right.

If so, than the case for inviting China becomes much the same as that for free trade with China.  If the Space Station becomes a truly international place -- which it seems well on the way to becoming -- than having them involved could provide many of the &quot;upsides&quot; that you list.

It is popular to denigrate Mr. Clinton&#039;s invetation to Russia to join the Space Station on technical grounds, but we forget he did that as part of an attempt to tie them into the larger world economy.  It worked.  Russia has avoided significant conflict with us, and it seems likely that their involvement in the Space Station has contributed in a small way to that.  It has certainly tied their aerospace industry into the Western economy far more than would have been the case otherwise.  They&#039;ve kept the project afloat with their simple and effective transportation system.  A Chinese copy of that system provides greater flexibility, security (in the economic sense), and an alternative the next time we&#039;re unhappy with the Russians.  

You say that free trade may be the greatest peacemaker of all time, and I don&#039;t disagree with that.  Providing China with economic reasons to tie their aerospace industry closer to ours strikes me as a good lever to that end.  Encouraging the Space Station to become a place for international commerce, while making China a part of that, strikes me as two net goods.

-- Donald]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Okay, Al, How about this?</p>
<p>If it succeeds over the long haul, the Space Station, or its eventual replacement, is likely to become a center for international research, and potentially even trade.  Already, European countries are prepared to pay high political and financial prices &#8212; and to try to force us to keep our promises to do the same &#8212; not to write off their investments in the Space Station.  There is a long and successful history of government bases on Earth slowly growing into sites of commerce.  Already, the existance of the Space Station is forcing the nations of the world to keep certain launch vehicles and spacecraft alive, and to encourage commercial companies to develop new ones.  It seems at least possible that, if we do deploy a polar lunar base and use skipping polar reentries, a high-latitude LEO base may yet prove important for future deep-space expeditions.</p>
<p>I know that my &#8220;vision&#8221; here &#8212; based more on my archaeological and historial backgrounds, than on a technical one &#8212; is not widely subscribed.  However, for the sake of arguement, let&#8217;s assume that I am right.</p>
<p>If so, than the case for inviting China becomes much the same as that for free trade with China.  If the Space Station becomes a truly international place &#8212; which it seems well on the way to becoming &#8212; than having them involved could provide many of the &#8220;upsides&#8221; that you list.</p>
<p>It is popular to denigrate Mr. Clinton&#8217;s invetation to Russia to join the Space Station on technical grounds, but we forget he did that as part of an attempt to tie them into the larger world economy.  It worked.  Russia has avoided significant conflict with us, and it seems likely that their involvement in the Space Station has contributed in a small way to that.  It has certainly tied their aerospace industry into the Western economy far more than would have been the case otherwise.  They&#8217;ve kept the project afloat with their simple and effective transportation system.  A Chinese copy of that system provides greater flexibility, security (in the economic sense), and an alternative the next time we&#8217;re unhappy with the Russians.  </p>
<p>You say that free trade may be the greatest peacemaker of all time, and I don&#8217;t disagree with that.  Providing China with economic reasons to tie their aerospace industry closer to ours strikes me as a good lever to that end.  Encouraging the Space Station to become a place for international commerce, while making China a part of that, strikes me as two net goods.</p>
<p>&#8212; Donald</p>
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