Tell me if I’m going blind, but the one relevant quote from the article that I see says that “China plans to set up a lunar base after 2020… a Chinese space official said Wednesday.” The article goes on to indicate that Ji Wu, director of China’s Center for Space Science and Applied Research, is responsible for the quote.

Just to be clear, is that what you’re basing this on?

“Sounds to me the decision to put a manned program to the Moon has already been taken”

I don’t see the evidence for such a decision in that article, for a couple reasons:

1) The quote is from Chinese center director who is only the equivalent of a NASA Center Director, not a NASA Administrator, a White House official, or a Congressional leader. Just as quotes from NASA engineers, scientists, and managers about future programs often don’t reflect White House policy, Congressional funding, or NASA-approved plans, a Chinese center director does not speak for the entire Chinese space program, nevertheless the Chinese government.

2) The quote only makes reference to “plans”. NASA has tons and tons of plans, but that doesn’t mean that decisions — by NASA HQ leadership, the White House, and/or Congress — have been made to implement and fund those plans. (Heck, I can point to multiple missions in the VSE that Griffin has cancelled.) Same thing goes for China’s, or any other country’s, space program.

Are there people in the Chinese space program, like this center director, who have worked on plans to build a lunar base? Sure there are. Does that mean that China’s government has made a decision to proceed with such a program and fund it? No.

“and they’ve decided on a date for planning purposes.”

Tell me if I’m going blind, but I don’t see a specific date. The quote only makes reference to a time period “after 2020″. This is actually consistent with the quotes I’ve provided earlier, which state that China doesn’t plan to make a decision on a human lunar program until after 2020 and doesn’t anticipate its first human lunar landing until 2030 at the earliest.

Could China’s future human lunar program start now and go faster if they wanted to and applied the necessary resources? Sure. Does the linked article prove, or even indicate, that they are going to do so? No.

“So now we know the Chinese have a manned lunar program, announced publicly”

No we don’t. This article only indicates that a Chinese center director has been involved in “plans” to “set up a lunar base after 2020.” Plans, especially coming from a Chinese center director, are not the same thing as a government “decision”, “announced publicly” or otherwise.

When China’s Premier makes a Kennedy-esque announcement, or when the head of China’s space program says that their next ten year plan is funded for a human lunar return, or when satellite images of actual, lunar-specific hardware getting built or tested start showing up, then we can safely state that China has made a decision to land humans on the Moon. Until then, this is little more than bureaucratic planning, which is endemic to any national space program, Chinese or otherwise.

“they are building a heavy lift pad nearer to the equator;”

Yes, but per my earlier post:

1) The proposed new facility is a “Satellite Launch Center”.

2) The facility has been in planning for at least two years. A decision to actually start construction has not been made (or probably funded) yet.

3) The “heavy lift” Long March 5 being referred to is only equivalent to an EELV heavy (25 tons to LEO). It’s not a lunar-class Saturn V/Ares V heavy lift (~100 tons to LEO).

4) Even the EELV-equivalent “heavy lift” Long March 5 is still in planning. A decision to actually start and fund development has not been made yet.

I’d also note that first stage of China’s Long March family relies on low performing UMDH and dinitrogen tetroxide propellants. Just my 2 cent estimate, but I’d guess that China will build an entire new first stage and engine with higher performing propellants before undertaking a human lunar program.

(These propellants are also highly toxic and killed some 63 to 500 workers and villagers — depending on whether we trust the Chinese government or Western press — in two launch accidents back in 1995 and 1996. Loral subsequently shared technical information to help China figure out the cause of the accidents, which in turn led to INA and factored into the tightening of ITAR. No good deed goes unpunished.)

“they have announced strategic reasons for going to the moon”

Mr. Wu makes reference to going to the Moon to “utilise its resources”, including “industrial purposes” and “potential energy resources”. An actual decision by the Chinese government to pursue a human lunar program will probably have more to do with regional competition with India and (maybe) Japan, than the application of lunar resources to industry or energy supply, which is arguably decades, if not centuries, off.

In fact, we may not see a decision by China to fund a human lunar program (or any other step beyond China’s current LEO flights) until India gets serious about its human space flight program and pushes into LEO.

“they have now published their timeline”

Again, tell me if I’m wrong, but I didn’t see any timeline in that article.

“Still a skeptic?”

It’s not a matter of skepticism. It’s a matter of evidence. And there’s just no written or physical evidence — at least that we’ve been able to collectively dredge up on this thread — that the Chinese government has made a decision to start a human lunar program or is actually funding, building, and testing human lunar hardware today.

Again, are there folks working on and talking about such plans in China’s space program? Sure. It wouldn’t be a national space program if there wasn’t. But there are also folks working on and talking about interstellar probes at NASA. Does that mean that decisions have been made to pursue and fund either set of plans and start building and testing the necessary hardware? No.

It’s easy in the intelligence business to overhype the statements of a bureaucrat or two. But we have to be more critical than that, and examine carefully who the speaker is, what they’re specifically saying, and whether it’s consistent with the statements of their higher-ups and (most importantly) the actions the country is actually undertaking.

I apologize if that sounds preachy, but, in the context of our post-Iraq WMD debacle world, there arguably needs to be a higher level of rigor applied to our foreign intelligence, including any questions surrounding China’s human space flight program. And based on everything in this thread and that’s out there, I would still criticize Griffin for his lack of rigor and fear-mongering about China beating us back to the Moon, especially in the face of written Chinese plans to the contrary and the lack of any physical evidence that China is pursuing a human lunar program.

Finally, on a lighter note, I have to say I found this part of the article’s translation amusing, where Mr. Wu, referring to our Moon said:

“As a satellite of the Earth, it is a large platform that never stops and needs no maintenance”

I guess that’s certainly two advantages that the Moon has over ISS, Mir, and Skylab! It never stops and never needs maintenance! Funny stuff…

I never claimed that China is hiding a human lunar program. I only stated that is was a possibility, but a very remote one, given all the highly visible activities involved in carrying out a human lunar program.

“Incidentally, in the Xinuha article, they refer to “large space station” elements. Like the Destiny module? Like Kibo? Like Columbus?”

Like Apollo-Soyuz, as I already mentioned. I don’t know what “large” specifically refers to, but Project 921-2, China’s space station, was last planned to consist of nothing more than the unmanned docking of Shenzhou 8 and 9. I would not describe that as “large” as far as space stations go. (Actually, I’d call it as “small” as space stations come.) But the Chinese, or just their propoganda machine, may arguably may view it as “large”. As an aside, the manned flight of Shenzhou 10 was last planned to be the first crewed visit to China’s space station.

I’d note that it’s doubtful any of this space station activity will launch from Wenchang given that it doesn’t need Long March 5 capabilities (I checked and it appears that Shenzhou 8 and 9 were planned for launch on Long March 2EAs) and given that Wenchang is still in planning.

“I’d say they are announcing bit by bit, the pieces they need.”

What human lunar-specific pieces are you referring too? All China has (or appears to have) is a Gemini-equivalent Shenzou/Long March 2, a lunar remote sensing orbiter that’s running behind schedule, aspirations to fund a 25-ton Atlas V/Delta IV-class launch vehicle and break ground on its launch site, and a still potential future Apollo/Soyuz-class space station that will consist of nothing more than a couple unmanned Shenzhous docked together.

Outside rendezvous and docking at their planned space station, there is no evidence that the things China (or any nation) needs to actually build a human lunar program are underway in China. There is no Ares V/Saturn V-class lunar heavy lift vehicle or its engines in development or under testing. There is no in-space fueling development underway or orbital tests planned. There are no human capsule reentry tests from a lunar-return trajectory planned or underway. There is no lunar lander in development or under testing.

If the Chinese stick to their plan to make a decision circa 2020 on a human lunar landing circa 2030, we may start to see some of these elements get underway a decade or so from now. But so far, there’s no evidence of such.

FWIW…

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-09/22/content_6774462.htm

I note that Xinhua specifically mentions lifting “space stations”. I think that qualifies as heavy lift.”

All space stations, launch facilities, and heavy lift vehicles are not created equal. We have to examine the details and see whether they’re indicative of a human lunar program. A handful of points:

1) China’s planned space station is little more than a couple modified Shenzhou spacecraft docked together. It has more in common with Apollo-Soyuz than Skylab, Mir, or ISS. The Long March 2F, which delivers only 8,400 kg to LEO, is the current launch vehicle for the Shenzhou. The two modified Shenzhou that will be used to create China’s space station will probably still be launched on a couple of these existing Long March 2F launch vehicles. No heavy lift required.

2) The Wenchang facility referenced in the article is a former suborbital launch range that’s undergoing refit for orbital launches. Although it could theoretically launch manned missions, it’s officially called the “Wenchang Satellite Launch Center”. See Wikipedia entry for the same.

3) China has been “planning” to construct the Wenchang facility since at least 2005 and has apparently made no construction progress to date(still “planning”). See:

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/China_Mulls_New_Southern_Space_Port.html

4) Just by virtue of its more southerly latitude, Wenchang will improve the performance of the existing Long March family of launch vehicles over existing Chinese launch facilities. Also, unlike other Chinese launch facilities, Wenchang will be capable of launching the planned Long March 5 launch vehicle. But the Long March 5 is not a lunar-class heavy lift vehicle. With 25 tons to LEO, it’s a competitor to the Atlas V/Delta IV heavies, not to Ares V or another Saturn V-class lunar booster.

5) Just as Wenchang is still in “planning”, the Long March 5 is still unfunded. See Wikipedia entry for Long March 5.

Bottom-line: China’s space program is pursuing a small space station, still planning a new launch facility, and seeking funding for a new heavy lift version of the Long March launch vehicle. But none of this is indicative of a human lunar program. The space station does not require new launch vehicles, the launch facility — if it’s ever built — appears to be focused on satellite launches, and the new heavy lift Long March — if it’s ever funded — is comparable to Atlas/Delta heavies, not Ares V/Saturn V/lunar-class heavy lift.

Hope this helps.

I note that Xinhua specifically mentions lifting “space stations”. I think that qualifies as heavy lift.

Exchanging safety requirements for Mass margin requirements by striping ‘required’ safety systems off of Orion is just that. Yes Space is tough but you have to give hope enough margin to succeed or change your objectives or approach. At some point the astronauts are going to need to weigh in on this. I’m surprise they haven’t already moved to a four abreast 4.5m Orion, which would solve a number of problems.

While the original Ares-I was a good idea within the context of replacing the Space Shuttle quickly, politics and performing the ISS mission only (i.e. 4-Segment SRB, small upper stage, and significantly lower mass capsule) it is clearly generating too many problems in an attempt to get it to work for the VSE longer term lunar and Mars focus. Its lower inherently lower performance is a key cause of the disruptive changes required by the Ares-V as well need to get the total Lunar mass up to the requirements of marginal polar mission.

“In explaining the latest [Constellation] slip [from 2014 to 2015], Scott Horowitz, associate administrator for NASA’s Exploration Systems Mission Directorate, said the development of the Constellation Program, including the Orion module for carrying crew and the Ares rockets that will lift crew and cargo into space, is a ‘huge, technical system-engineering problem.'”

See fifth paragraph in this article:

http://www.wired.com/science/space/news/2007/09/space_gap

If the inventor of the Scotty rocket himself (not really, but Horowitz has gotten the credit) admits that Ares presents a “huge, technical system-engineering problem”, the why are we still pursuing such a difficult solution? Why not pursue one of several, simpler alternatives that can provide the same essential capabilities sooner, at less cost, and with a lot less hassle?

Quotes from both Griffin and Horowitz have been giving me headaches all week long. How can they not realize that what they’re saying goes directly against the very decisions they’ve made and are continuing to make?

Oy vey…