I agree with you on the use of some of the new money for COTS. $500M would be a drop in the bucket for Ares 1/Orion, and would no nothing to change the strategic situation.”

Thirded.

“Of course I’d like a bit to go to Centennial Challenges, too.”

Seconded.

That will really solve America’s problems, like debt, war, oil, climate, etc …

Look at the bright side – the Ares I booster might just come in handy as a ballistic missile for the upcoming resource wars with Mexico and Canada.

NASA obviously doesn’t get that or doesn’t want to get it and Congress and Senate ultimately don’t seem to either.

The VSE was not intended to be the creation of another fiscal black hole but rather to say “hey look we have NASA and we’re going to continue paying NASA but when we do so we might as well give them a higher purpose than they’re currently having so as to get more out of it”.

Aldridge commission* anyone? Sustainability, affordability, credibility.

One can have “business as usual” or the VSE but not both and it seems just about everybody has decided against the VSE in practice.

* pdf of the “President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy” aka the Aldridge commission available at the website linked in the nametag.

I agree with you on the use of some of the new money for COTS. $500M would be a drop in the bucket for Ares 1/Orion, and would no nothing to change the strategic situation.

Anon — I agree with you about the motivations of Members on this subject. Everybody now believes the appropriations will be voted by Bush (because has officially stated his intent to do so in writingg). Therefore, the need to be “fiscally responsible” is no longer present since they believe there is no fiscal cost to voting for adding $1 Billion. But they do get the benefits for voting or it. You have to think like a Member of Congress, and understand their interests, in order to appreciate what is going on here.

– Al

That wouldn’t bother me. Of course she’s going to have to share if she wants to get enough votes on her side. $500M or so might not make much difference if sent to a giant orbiting telescope or something like that, but it could make a big difference in smaller Earth or space science missions, research and analysis, or (NewSpace and/or Old) suborbital science missions.

For the lunar program, which is a priority for many folks on this site, at least some of the pressure against the program from the science areas raided by Ares/Shuttle would be reduced. This money could also be used in ways that promote both the Earth/space science and the lunar program at the same time (eg: an Earth observation demo from the lunar surface/orbit, or a small lunar space science mission).

Of course I’d like a bit to go to Centennial Challenges, too.

anonymous.space: “3) Even if the remainder does go towards Constellation, a $500 million boost in one year is unlikely to make much of a dent in the Ares I/Orion schedule. This amount is only a splash in that $20-30 billion bucket, and it all has to be spent in one fiscal year, which limits the funding’s utility to a multi-year development program like Constellation.”

I agree that sending $500M to Ares 1/Orion wouldn’t be a good use of the money, if it ever appears. It would be like sending 500 more troops up the hill at Fredricksburg. I’d say the same for the Shuttle.

However, an additional $500M could be extremely productive if used to bolster COTS. $500M could easily be the difference between failure and success for COTS. If COTS fails, Ares 1/Orion will have to be focused on ISS transportation, which would make the prospects for the lunar program even grimmer. If COTS succeeds, there will be no need for Ares ISS support (except perhaps as a backup option), so, to keep the Shuttle workforce busy, a lunar program, or something else ambitious, would be needed.

if the U.S. continues down the current path of stoking anti-chinese space fears, i seriously doubt a chinese role in the ISS, even if we get out in 2016 or 2020. doesnt look good, cooperating with the ‘boogeyman’ being used to justify funding increases.

“Imagine if some of that oil money went to developing access to space maybe we would have a reusable SSTO (single stage to orbit) spacecraft (Looking into the sky and dreaming).”

while we’re dreaming, how about a space elevator, magnetic rail launchers for heavy cargo, and a proven strategy to mitigate threatening NEOs? please. even if W hadnt decided to invade iraq (long before 9/11, proving false yet again the iraq-queda connection which is now so painfully real), there was still missile defence to be bulked up, navy stealth ddx destroyers to design, the commanche or osprey, and any number of other high-dollar I.M.C. projects with little real value in security that would have seen funding increases instead. until space as an economic sphere and as a jobs-at-home-district is understood by politicians, it will continue seeing less than 1% of our discretionary spending. hating on Bush or Clinton or any other former or future candidate wont change that, only getting it through to the congress that their election chances can be improved by supporting space will.

I’m nitpicking, but the Shuttle program ends in 2010, not 2012 (or 2015).

“about the time the Chinese land on the moon”

The head of China’s space agency says that they have not made a decision to send taikonauts to the Moon; their planning documents claim that they’re not going to make such a decision until 2020; they’re asking to participate in the ISS; and (most importantly) there’s no physical evidence (e.g., heavy lift launch site or vehicle) that the Chinese are pursuing such a program.

“shoot down a few more satellites”

How are Ares I/Orion (or any human space transport system) going to defend against Chinese ASAT attacks? If anything, spending on human space flight is a distraction from the systems that the U.S. would really need to defend against or deter such attacks.

“Russia ups the price to go to the space station”

This is a real possibility, especially if COTS does not deliver on time (or at all).

FWIW…