From an Aviation Week article that quotes directly from Wayne Hale (Shuttle program manager) emails about the ECO issue that has been stalling the current mission:

“It [the ECO system] is designed to protect against an oxygen rich engine shutdown that would cause a catastrophic explosion.

Hale cites past flight data that indicates that could be very risky and that it is “likely that this system has been unreliable all along.”

He also says in the emails that “post flight reconstructions point to a few flights where it is possible that we were close” to using the ECO system.

“It seems to me likely that we have been flying the entire history of the program with a false sense of security and that we have never had reliable protection from LH2 (liquid hydrogen) low level cutoff,” says Hale. “That is a really sobering thought,” he says.

Hale adds at the end of his email that he is considering ordering other major reviews of space shuttle safety systems that could be subject to “smart failures” missed earlier by engineering reviews.””

The article is on SpaceRef at (add http://www):

.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1255

The Orlando Sentinal also discusses a Boeing study to understand the life remaining in various Shuttle materials:

“But not every red flag is clearly visible or well-understood. In another study, Boeing M&P Engineering examined 1,000 “soft” — or nonmetallic –materials used in the shuttle, including critical seals and wire insulation. It found that a fifth of the materials were safe to fly for 40 years, while 10 percent had specific life spans and are replaced when needed. As for the remaining 70 percent, “we don’t have enough data to know whether we could fly them forever,” Russell said. “We think we’re good, but we need to do more,””

70 percent of 1,000 is 700 materials with unknown lifetimes. Most probably can be flown through 2010 or 2015. But it would only take a very small fraction of these materials to reach the end of their unknown lifetimes before 2010 or 2015 to create failure modes, some of which may be catastrophic.

The article is at (add http://www):

.orlandosentinel.com/news/space/orl-shuttle0607dec06,0,25309.story

It just still boggles my mind that with these huge unknowns and catastrophic risks embedded in the system that any congressman or staffer would support flying the Shuttle through 2010 to build out a woefully underutilized space station, nevertheless propose legislation to ensure Shuttle flights through 2015 just to avoid buying a handful of more cheap Soyuz/Progress flights. The rewards do not seem commensurate with the risks of a third Shuttle accident (or Shuttle’s annual $4-5 billion cost), not in the least.

FWIW…

Man, you are one paranoid housewife. You’re worried a space shuttle is going to crash into your neighborhood, and you’re worried somebody is going to give away free software. One doesn’t use open source software against their neighbors, one gives open source software to their neighbors, for free!

Mr. Foust should ban Elifritz as harshly and permanently as the software allows.

WordPress is open source software. I know of nobody yet who has hacked the delete function built into the software, which Mr. Foust is free to use at any time. Perhaps if he took an interest in the subject of his blog here.

As far as Dennis’ crackpot evangelical views on global warming, nobody with any superficial scientific training at all cares one whit what Dennis Wingo thinks about planetary physics. FYI, you can get the inside scoop on John Marburger’s apologetic stance on this administrations actions on the problem over there right now. As long as people like Dennis Wingo and John Marburger influence space and science policy in America, we’re screwed, and most all of you know it. You are just unable to admit it.

Now get out there and campaign for Huckabee, he’s the man.

I second the motion. Although the climate debate is off-topic, I would actually support Elifritz’s comments about realclimate.org. But his incendiary and bombastic comments to Mr. Wingo are deplorable. Moreover, Elifritz’s threat to use “open source software” against his “neighbors” is just way over the line. Along with “I’m not going to let up on you guys even for one second” and “you’ve pissed off the wrong person one too many times,” it’s the latest and most brazen in a long line of threats in this thread. These come on top of Elifritz’s repeated (and usually inaccurate) personal insults, borderline obscene references (“phallic rocket”), and usual trolling (multiple posts before revealing his identity and attack).

There’s no excuse for putting up with threats, personal insults and attacks, bordeline obscenity, and trolling on what should be a minimally respectful policy debate forum. Mr. Foust should ban Elifritz as harshly and permanently as the software allows.

First, no one knows CO2’s effect on climate to 10%, no one. First mistake of RC. Second, there have been some interesting discussions related to the ionosphere/troposphere electrical conduit that bears on solar influence on climate. I cannot help if RC only lets nutjobs like you post there because of your slavish devotion to anthropogenic global warming. Third, you did not see my replies on that site as they keep any real discussion from happening. Fourth, RC is the laughingstock of the climate world and there are actual contests to see who gets booted the quickest by questioning their religion.

You can save yourself a lot of critical thinking troubles if you just continue to ignore global warming, the national debt, the failure of VSE, ESAS and Constellation, and even the necessity of critical thinking altogether. That appears to be the new American way of life.

Here is a link to your astute critical thinking skills, where you get your a@@ handed to you by real scientists almost the second after you open your mouth :

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/02/aerosols-the-last-frontier/#comment-26625

I think that Jeff has picked up the baton on this one. I will have an article out today on it as well.

Dennis