No one has suggested that. These kinds of straw men are the reason that so few (if any) take you seriously.

Not all “technical problems” are equivalent (for instance, your comparison on your blog of the pogo problem that Saturn had to the SRB vibration problem is a ludicrous one).

“The President’s FY 2009 budget proposal for Constellation reduces funding for both Ares I and Orion, by some tens to hundreds of millions of dollars each, versus the FY 2008 budget plan.”

A lot of personel and administrative costs have been moved to Cross Agency Support, hence no cut.

Also, there’s a new start for an Outer Planets Moon orbiter, which Moon to be chosen later.

The slippage from 2014, which happened over a year ago, was caused by a budget cut initiated by the Congress, not by anything the administration or NASA has done.

“Griffin halved the budget for what became COTS, eliminated most ISS research, killed nuclear power and propulsion, and reduced many other human exploration technology efforts just to get Ares I and Orion started. Mars missions, extrasolar planet telescopes, and outer moons missions — all integral parts of the original VSE document and roadmap — have also been terminated or deferred to afford Ares I and Orion.”

I’m not sure what Anon is talking about by halving COTS. When did that happen? The rest, most of which have been delayed and not cancelled, are part of what we call remaining inside a budget. If Anon is who he claims to be (something I’m not convinced of), then he should recognize the concept.

Ferris was not being “a little overblown.” He was raving nonsense.

Rand, by the way, is often confused about reality.

ESAS/Constellation are not “fully funded”, not by a long shot.

The President’s FY 2009 budget proposal for NASA overall is about $500 million below the planned VSE budget. This continues a annual budget shortfall trend that has existed since O’Keefe left NASA and Griffin came on board.

The President’s FY 2009 budget proposal for Constellation reduces funding for both Ares I and Orion, by some tens to hundreds of millions of dollars each, versus the FY 2008 budget plan.

Congress removed $200 million in prior-year carryover funds from Constellation in the FY 2008 budget.

COTS received a major cut in FY 2008 and it remains to be seen if that funding will be restored.

Worse, the December GAO report on Ares I states that NASA cannot provide firm cost estimates for that vehicle, so even if the White House and Congress had been meeting prior budget commitments, we don’t know if it’s enough to get Ares I built.

“and on schedule”

ESAS/Constellation are not “on schedule”, not by a long shot.

The VSE (or National Space Exploration Policy) called for a Shuttle replacement by 2014. Ares I and Orion have an initial operating date of late 2015, putting them at least a year behind schedule. Even then, based on the budget, they only a 65-percent chance of meeting that date.

The December GAO report on Ares I puts 2017 as the most likely operational date for Ares I based on its J-2X engine long tent-pole, putting it two or three years behind schedule.

Multiple design reviews have been delayed. Major decisions the abort systems and landing modes have been delayed. Hanley has made multiple attempts to delay PDR this year.

And worse, the December GAO report states that NASA cannot provide firm schedule estimates for Ares I, so even if the program was meeting prior schedule commitments, we wouldn’t really know if Ares I was on schedule or not.

“I still don’t understand in what sense you mean ‘destroyed.'”

Even if we set aside the budgetary and schedule issues, the technical and safety issues plaguing Ares I and Orion are legion. The Ares I upper stage and Orion are down to single-string redundancy on many safety-critical systems. Orion still has potentially unsafe abort, orbit insertion, and landing modes. The Ares I first-stage has acoustic issues that are at the limits of human endurance (not to mention space-rated systems) and practically no mass margin to deal with them.

And even if we set aside Ares I and Orion technical issues, decisions to start funding Ares V, EDS, and Altair (LSAM) have been pushed out to 2011, a time period in which at least two of the four remaining Presidential candidates have made detailed statements about terminating or deferring Constellation’s lunar return elements.

And then there’s all the other VSE programs and budgets that were sacrificed to afford Ares I and Orion. Griffin halved the budget for what became COTS, eliminated most ISS research, killed nuclear power and propulsion, and reduced many other human exploration technology efforts just to get Ares I and Orion started. Mars missions, extrasolar planet telescopes, and outer moons missions — all integral parts of the original VSE document and roadmap — have also been terminated or deferred to afford Ares I and Orion.

Mr. Valyn may be a little overblown when he states that the VSE has been destroyed by ESAS/Constellation/Ares I/Orion, but he’s not that far off the mark.

FWIW…

Sonce the program seems to be fully funded and on schedule, I still don’t understand in what sense you mean “destroyed.”

Feel free to replace “Bush and Griffin” with “Bush administration”

Yes, any president has a lot on his plate, but thats why he appoints competent people (which, frankly, I think we agree, he didn’t).

As for Congress, yea, their oversight has been wanting as well. But the primary group of who to blame – the Bush administration

Mark,
what I am getting at is that the Bush administration has destroyed the VSE. In its place is ESAS, which is a mess. Whoever takes over, whether its a Dem or an R, won’t be facing VSE – they’ll be facing Constellation, and more importantly, ESAS. And it is ESAS that has destroyed VSE, and damaged Constellation to the point that the whole program needs overhaul.

This was posted on slashdot monday evening.

Ferris, that sentence doesn’t even make any sense. How can something be overhauled if it has been destroyed? It’s that knid of rhetoric that makes people wonder if space advocates are not insane.