[…] The reasons to doubt that the satellite represents a real danger are several. For example, [the attack] does not guarantee a complete destruction, but it [may] produce fragments smaller than the entire satellite, but [which] however are not controllable and are all in established orbits (here there is an orbital mechanics debate of merit). […]

This results in part because smaller objects tend to have a higher drag to mass ratio. Any higher velocity fragments still have perigees low enough for drag to deorbit them.

The case for the attempt rests on a finding that the hydrazine tank will reach the surface intact. The hydrazine is frozen solid and won’t completely melt on the way down. The tubing will be ripped off, so it will vent as the hydrazine melts, creating a hazard in a radius of about 50 meters.

This topic has many angles to examine it from – orbital mechanically, politically, possibly artistically…

But sticking to my expertise, Thread Hijacker stated: The problem with orbital debris is that secondary and tertiary and higher order collisions will eventually create a cloud of smaller debris particles but one point to remember is that the debris-debris collisions will not bring new energy into the system. An intercepting missile would bring new energy. Lots of new energy. So second order collisions will not alter even the short term fate of the products.

Oh if we could delve deeply into the orbital mechanics of collisions… But I fear that some of our gentle readers (who do NOT ordinarily exhibit tendencies towards thin skinniness) might get pushed too far today.

Charles

Any piece that has a new apogee high enough to cause a problem of this nature would have a perigee so low that it will come in on the first pass through the atmosphere.

Alas, this thread diverges from the original intent…

It will be very interesting to see how the Chinese spin this. There’s just no way they won’t take some advantage of it to try and make their ASAT test blunder less offensive. Will they wait ’til after the missle launches? Probably, but who knows.

That’s the best case, assuming that the nodes are properly aligned. It’s a job for a low-thrust, but high-Isp transfer.

Total delta V for the suggested transfer (there and back, and there and back) from the ISS orbit (51.5 deg) to the satellite’s orbit (58 deg) adds up to ~12K ft/sec. That would have to be one mother of a space tug. Plus all the inherent dangers cited.

Orb Mech: Rand is correct. It’s going to be in a circular orbit by now. Only pure posigrade delta V imparted along the velocity vector could raise your altitude without some lowering of altitude elsewhere (and, as he notes, you’ve GOT to fly back through the impact site/altitude or the universe doesn’t work the way we think). Retrograde would lower it everywhere, making the impact site your new apogee. Radial in & out delta V would shift the line of apsides, creating an apogee AND perigee…so any gain in altitude gets a corresponding lower dip into the atmosphere on the other side of the Earth.