In most of the country, this assertion is correct. Not so in Florida. Remember, Florida is considered up for grabs during the next election and is considered a swing state. If Obama was to portray himself as heavily pro-NASA, it could make a major difference in the election!

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Congress should have them hold the competition anyway. SpaceX doesn’t have to be one of the winners. Hopefully any setbacks SpaceX has will encourage other potential COTS D winners to put on their own pressure for COTS D.

John McCain has openly advocated tossing Russia out of the G8, his top advisers have lobbied for admitting the Republic of Georgia into NATO & he supports the Central European missile defense facility.

If McCain is elected President and if America has a five or six year gap in our ability to access ISS, a confrontation over any of the above three issues (as well as over Iran) could see Russian denial of NASA access to Soyuz.

Or at least a very substantial increase in the prices charged our taxpayers for each NASA astronaut.

Gee, that sounds familiar. It’s the same “standing army” problem the Space Shuttle has, albeit on a far smaller scale.

I agree with your suggestions for for Mr. Musk. These rediculous waits between his attempts cannot help his finances or SpaceX’s learning curve, and thus probably hurt more than help with “getting things right.”

— Donald

— Donald

The biggest policy/political impact of SpaceX’s third failure in a row is that it probably takes the winds out their sails (at least for the moment) to persuade Congress to mandate that NASA hold a COTS Category D competition.

Jeff has reported on recent congressional legislation, which has been approved by the House, is supported by the Senate, and appears to have a reasonable chance of being approved by the entire Congress and becoming law. This legislation includes a legal mandate that NASA hold a COTS Category D competition.

So, in answer to your question, SpaceX’s failures may hurt the final passage of the legislation (it certainly doesn’t help), and it is also likely to impact any WH budget request and future appropriations by Congress. (IF the White House does not ask for the funding, and if the U.S. Congress does not appropriate the funding for the Category D competition, the existence of a legal requirement may be moot.)

Since SpaceX claims that it has identified the problem, and that a simple fix will solve it, a rapid (and successful) 4th launch is truly in SpaceX’s interest. Waiting around for another year for a 4th attempt is a bad idea (in my opinion.)

Why?

Elon has 500+ employees now, and he has to pay their salaries whether or not they are launching anything. It is in his strategic (and financial interest) to launch again ASAP. I think he should launch a Falcon 1 once per month until they get it right. As John Carmack has demonstrated, the fastest (and cheapest) way to learn is by flying.

FWIW,

– Al

Bill, good points. Any thoughts about what the SpaceX failures, especially if they continue, will do to COTS?

— Donald

If there is a five or six year “gap” in US spaceflight capabilities then the continued existence of ISS will give Russia great leverage over us, at least in the space arena.

How can we possibly use ISS to leverage Russia when we cannot reach or service ISS?