I agree that we are likely to work through the issues at ISS, continue our relationship. Russia sees the ISS partnership as a good thing for them; and it would be lose-lose if the partnership crumbled.

On top of this, the Russians are capitalists, are motivated by profit, and they will be happy to accept our money for services rendered. They do not want to lose us as a customer.

The issue here is U.S. politics — if Congress does not extend ISNA, we will literally be throwing our hat over the wall to creating a new human space access system on a much faster schedule.

Alternatively, we don’t extend ISNA until next year — but the manufacturing lead times will be shorter and the prices we will pay will be higher. In fact, since the U.S. Government likes to make rhetorical statements on principal — even when we can’t back it up and even when it costs us tens-to-hundreds of millions to make such a statement — so this should be considered to be an eminently possible outcome.

In fact, I make that prediction — seeing this as an election year, Congress will punt until after the election, in full knowledge that we will be forced to pay more money as a result of the delay.

– Al

Bottom line, I think the incentives are in place for the US and Russia to work out the ISS mess so both parties have full access while the US rebuilds its manned space program.

Yes, then we can continue to go in circles around the sun, in a small capsule, with no safe refuge at all! Who needs spaceplanes and stations!

We’re Americans man! We can do better than that.

The Gehman Commission pointed out that we have been going in circles in LEO for the last 3 decades.

Americans can always count on a congressionally appointed committee to overturn and relegislate those inconvenient laws of physics. Why should the Earth continue to circle around the sun as it has for the last four and a half billion years, and why should the sun continue to circle around the milky way galaxy as it has for the last four and a half billion years. I’ve been getting up every day and going to work, and then returning home in a great circle for the last 30 years, and I for one, am getting sick and tired of it.

We need to change reality, and the president and congress can do it!

The root cause was the Shuttle, and how much it cost.

The root cause is the laws of physics as we have inherited them.

You idiots need to count your blessings.

If you don’t like the idea of “LEO forever”, then you should be first in line to applaud Senator McCain when he says we should “TERMINATE the Space Shuttle flights.”

His words, not mine. See:

http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/7366faf9-d504-4abc-a889-9c08d601d8ee.htm

The Gehman Commission pointed out that we have been going in circles in LEO for the last 3 decades. The root cause was the Shuttle, and how much it cost.

FWIW,

– Al

If you’re going to fly at all, it’s crazy to only fly once a year. You should fly at the maximum possible rate, both to keep the workers on their toes and to minimize per-flight costs.

If all the US is worried about is the gap, then all we’ll end up with is a ISS taxi. We’ll have traded in the immensely capable STS for Gemini, 50 years later. LEO forever.

Again, solving the gap is easy. There are many versions of the capsules, including (but not limited to) the Orion capsule, which can be launched on an EELV by 2012.

Lockheed can put a version of the Orion on an EELV.

Boeing bid a capsule on an EELV for COTS round 2.

Lockheed (now ULA) is doing study for Bigelow for a capsule based human transportation system on an EELV.

Orbital is studying a capsule-based system on the Taurus II.

Jeff Foust reported on a congressional hearing where some of this came up this Spring.

http://www.spacepolitics.com/2008/05/08/one-true-way/
Later, Robert Dickman, executive director of AIAA, offered another alternative to closing the gap involving EELV. “For less than the cost a single space shuttle mission, they could be human-qualified and… a relatively simple capsule to go to low Earth orbit could be built” for access to ISS, he suggested.

In addition, we many additional COTS-based solutions that can solve the problem.

The overall solution is quite simple to see (if you are not Mike Griffin.)

Cancel Ares 1, fund the real alternatives, and shut down the STS.

FWIW,

– Al

The only American system that can be used between now and 2012, best case, is the STS. Most likely not until 2015 will anything be available. Congress is going to have a very hard time getting around that.
We have 2 launch pads for STS and 3 vehicles. With the right funding why couldn’t we use 1 pad for STS and the other for Constellation; then fly 1 STS/year with one vehicle using the other 2 as spares?

I agree the Shuttle is past its shelf life. I agree its dangerous. I agree its crazy expensive. But again, Congress has this problem with Russia to solve next year.

I agree. Recall all the failures OSC’s Pegasus endured after an upgrade (it already existed!). I don’t know whether SpaceX will succeed, but they’ve come amazingly close twice now. Mr. Musk is learning that it’s harder than he thought, not that it’s impossible.

You are, of course, entirely correct about the Space Shuttle. The Shuttle was a wonderful machine, but its time is past and we should not spend another avoidable penny on it.

Hell, I’d like to see development of multiple systems so we finally can get some fall-back options.

Isn’t this what COTS is all about? And, if Elon Musk succeeds, COTS succeeds and you get your wish, by definition!

— Donald