There certainly shouldn’t have been. A key feature, well discussed, of the VSE was that NASA would have to work within the sandpile.

For once, could we dispense with the gratuitous Bush bashing? He’s not even president any more, yet the derangement persists.

Not obvious that any “bashing” is intended, so accusations of derangement are misplaced. As you say, we all like simple round integers, and President Kennedy did as well when he challenged the nation to get to the Moon before the end of the decade. Bush understood that it was easier to draw lines in the sand that way rather than, say, challenging us to get back to the Moon before October 23, 2021.

But the problem was that semi-arbitrary goals like this are serviceable when cash flows freely. That sure was the case for Apollo, and even then we succeeded without a lot of extra time. Perhaps there was some expectation that it would flow freely for Constellation, even though the administration was saying “go as you can pay” out of the other side of their mouths.

I do think it is significant that we are now “working towards” being back on the Moon by 2020. That’s a bit different than a “goal”. It’s a lot easier to back off on “working towards” than it is to give up a national goal.

For once, could we dispense with the gratuitous Bush bashing? He’s not even president any more, yet the derangement persists.

a) There is a general tendency of humans to like round numbers — it’s not just a character defect of the former Chimp-in-Chief, and b) “Bush” didn’t come up with the plan — White House staff did.

The 2020 goal of returning humans to the Moon is completely arbitrary. It was used only because Bush liked simple, round integers. NASA likes it because it harkens of Kennedy, and they can point to it as a mandate. But in reality, there is nothing significant about it. Obama is free to use any date he wants.

The only true schedule driver is the Gap. Hardly anyone wants to extend Shuttle longer than it needs to, so the motivation for retirement is strong. Taking a pause on Ares to do a serious, thorough EXTERNAL reassessment of a Shuttle replacement is a wise idea. Otherwise, we could get stuck with another costly and perhaps less safe ETO alternative for U.S. astronauts for the next 30 years.

The problem I see is that the resources for VSE have never matched the ambition – at least if it is executed in the traditional NASA / major aerospace contractor way of doing business. It seems likely that the schedule will slide and the costs will overrun.

The specific inclusion of COTS in the top line budget description is a good thing. It will be interesting to see what the COTS folks can do with a compressed schedule and a little money.

Next if they cancel Ares I today, how long will it take to pivot to a new architecture? If they issue stop work now, they’ll have to do a post mortem before Congress on what they screwed up. That won’t be short.
Then they’ll need to redo their analysis of what they want before issuing an RFP. After all the rap against Griffin is he had pre-conceived notions in favor of ATK. All of this could stretch well into 2010 before contract award. Course this is just for Ares I. What about the redo for Ares V? 2020 won’t be possible for a Moon return. Right now, it looks to me the only way Ares 1 is thrown off the throne is if Ares I-X cartwheels into the Atlantic.

No doubt, but that doesn’t change the conclusion. Unlike in 1961, today’s NASA has decades of development and multiple existing vehicles and engines to draw upon. With smart choices that actually leverage existing capabilities, the development should be shorter this time around.

Again, though, that’s not what Constellation has been doing. Instead, we’re using SRBs in applications they were never designed for, adding segments that create untested SRB configurations, applying SSMEs in applications they were never designed for, ditching the SSMEs when they don’t work, claiming J-2 heritage where it doesn’t exist, etc. — all under the advice of suppossedly independent review boards, one-third of whose votes have turned out to be essentially bought and paid for.

Apologies for venting, but bleah…