I did not give up on them, they gave up on me. My password quit working and I emailed Chris Bergin multiple times with no answer so I quit worrying about them.

I will only assume that your example of SS-1 is here to make a point that private space is the way to go which I totally endorse.

On the other hand if you think that SS-1 represents any orbital capability then you are completely mistaken.

$1B will get you so far. How far do you think? Any idea how many people you can get for how long? Then there is building leases, equipment, computers, experimental facilities…

It does not matter it is a new agency if it is populated with the same people, eventually you’ll get back where you started from. And if it is not the same people then where do you get them from?

I did get it. What makes you think that another agency would not be “Entrenched bureacuracies, constituencies, interest groups, and so on.”?

How can another agency be not politcal? Especially considering the budget. As a governement agency $1B will not do it to go to space. Take Shuttle + Constellation as a 1st order approximation for your budget.

“OGCs were first introduced in the Gemini programs to test in preparation for Apollo … I think a few guys from flight dynamics might pick a fight with you over that comment.”

Well as I said earlier the technology to go to the Moon is not that much of a leap from LEO. Not necessarily the know-how which is currently lost to anyone. Said technology does exist today and is mostly available. And YES ESAS, Constellation (and Shutlle) will retire which makes the CURRENT human space exploration at NASA eventually retired. I did not mean anything else since I understood the thread is about that.

“Did you know that SpaceX now has a defense contract with the US Air Force? As long as the concepts have economic merit and are technologically feasible, and are not part of a government patronage system, then any of these companies should be able to offer bids.”

You are just adding to my point The problem with the current set up of using the major Defense contractors is that they are NOT paid for performance – cost-plus. COTS pays for performance. In addition overhead at the Defense contractors is giganormous not at a small business.

Starting afresh from a clean sheet with lean organization and tight focus may make things move, and leave the original agency in a dust.

They’d have to get a lot more expensive to be as expensive as Ares I. And Ares I isn’t human rated, either, yet. It doesn’t even exist.

When I referred to the low and medium range launch market, I was meaning the Delta II, only remaining Boeing launcher that has been in that market. You are right that Boeing and Lockheed are essentially already out of that market. But if Falcon 9 proves successful, then those companies will be completely locked out and must rely on their heavy lifters like the EELVs. Which is why I find it curious that EELVs are getting talked up so much as possible replacements for Ares I even though they are clearly a very expensive launch system that have yet to be human-rated.