I guess I should have said, “lots of fun for those directly involved, and somewhat entertaining to a certain type of onlooker … .” I stand by my productivity stance: hookers have ways of not producing unless it’s to their long term benefit. That only happens if they can figure out how to get a long term subsidy out of the deal, which makes the aftermath even less fun.

Wow, this analogy just keeps getting better.

As for the “if not now, when” argument, the analogy about funding a transatlantic flight in 1903 was a pretty good one, although I think it would be more a supersonic transatlantic flight. They would have spent a whole lot of money (read brainpower) working the problem in the wrong way, leaving them with nothing to show for it when the turbojet finally came around. It doesn’t matter how much money you throw at the Wright Flyer, it’s still going to be a doped fabric biplane. You can’t get there without radical changes in the technology, and if we’ve learned anything in the last thirty years it’s that manned spaceflight (at least as done by NASA) is FAR too risk averse to radically change anything.

Fundamental things have to happen before it will be worth the effort to go to Mars; spinning our wheels trying to go there on chemical propulsion accomplishes less than nothing. Spending hundreds of thousands of brain-years trying to build a crewed vehicle that can run for as long as it will take to execute a crewed Mars mission is a misapplication of resources. A few thousand brain years left alone to ponder the basic problems without the tyranny of the immediate (and worse, the tyranny of the mission success organization) are more likely to come up with a better way, which will obviate the need for the perfectly efficient life support system.

Getting back to the original topic of the post, (“Florida must demand … an “ambitious” space exploration program, in large part to protect jobs there”) all the wailing and gnashing of teeth is to keep an infrastructure intact that is not capable of supporting itself on its own merits, nor is it capable of doing what will be required to actually make a crewed mission to Mars possible. It would be like subsidizing the doped fabric makers in the hopes that they could help with the SR-71. I’m an old Titusville guy myself. It’s painful to think of what’s going to happen with no LC-39, but we have to think of the bigger picture.

“Today, we are probably capable of the first bases on the moon, and at least attempting expeditions to NEOs and the Martian Moons.”

The level of difficulty is not commensurate between those different missions. And it is not clear we can have bases on the Moon, crewed “permanently” that is. At least it is not clear to me.

There are two answers to that. First, we are not in a hurry. Colonizing any significant part of the Solar System is a project for generations. After all, it took us 10,000+ years to colonize our own world; the Solar System is a far larger and tougher proposition and our technology is nowhere near up to the task.

However, second, is we don’t start when we can start, when will we start? If we wait for the perfoect time or the perfect technology or the perfect “architecture,” we will never go. In any generation, we should do what we are capable of doing, and attempt to do what we are almost capable of doing. We are demonstrably capable of regular, if not routine, operations in the litoral space of LEO and of reaching Earth’s moon. Today, we are probably capable of the first bases on the moon, and at least attempting expeditions to NEOs and the Martian Moons. Those are the projects that we as a species at this point in time should be tackling.

— Donald

Hilarious, I might have to steal that someday, hope you don’t mind. Although some might argue that 3000 hookers would be more than just somewhat fun. And it could be very “productive” depending on how many you knock up.

Sorry, just trying to add a little levity to the proceedings.

NASA has spread a lot of the constellation work over several of its centers. In addition to JSC, KSC, and MSFC there’s also work being done at Ames, Langley, Glenn, MAF, and maybe some others that I’m not even aware of. So that’s TX, FL, AL, CA, VA, OH, and LA.

Then you have the contractors who are also spread all over the place. LM: mostly Houston, TX and Denver, CO but also a handful of people in Sunnyvale, CA and Newtown, PA. Honeywell: Mostly Glendale, AZ but also some in Clearwater, FL and Olathe, KS. Orbital Sciences: Langley, VA. Hamilton Sundtrand: Windsor Locks, CT. That’s just for Orion and only the prime and major subcontractors. Add in the Ares contractors and their subs and all the lower level suppliers and you’ve pretty much got work spread to as many congressional districts as possible. That’s one of the reasons why the $8 billion dollars already spent hasn’t gone very far.

This is the main reason why I think Obama will run into opposition from congress if he proposes a major change in direction. Congressmen/ women will protect their pork tooth and nail. Some while simultaneously decrying pork barrel spending and spouting platitudes about supporting free market capitalism etc etc, which of course makes them hypocrits (exhibit A: Richard Shelby, R-AL).

I do hope that we will at least see more commercialization of space in general and HSF in particular. I just think there’s too much pork spread over too many congressional districts for any sweeping change to happen. I’ll be satisfied if NASA commits to COTS-D while canceling Ares 1 and launching lunar Orion on Delta IV-H while simultaneously getting the funds out of congress to start work on Ares V/ Altair now rather than “someday”. But that’s just me.

More like “I double dare you to buy 3000 hookers for tonight.” It will be somewhat fun while it lasts, but not really very productive and certainly not worth the cost.

the columbia thing was no different then say 9/11. Something bad happens and instead of a calm rational decision response to it, the answer is to go to the cold war playbook, get Frum to come up with some words for it…and then sell it as something that has to be done right now.

One would think after the embarrasement of being “on watch” during a major terrorist attack or screwing up Iraq that somewhere along the line all these people would have gone hung themselves in shame…but no they keep on dishing out the same babble…and that has been the case at NASA since Challenger.

How many people got fired over the bad decisions with Challenger and Columbia? Jay G, Linda H the entire band of idiots skated…so whats to stop Griffin from pulling up “no contractor left behind” and doing something inept (Like trying to put people on a solid rocket first stage).

the problems with the solid are not “new”…there is vibration data on solids all the way back to “Little Joe” and certianly the Navy and USAF have it from Polaris/Trident/etc MX.

The fish goes from the head down and when a leader is goffy then it shouldnt surprise one that they listen to goffy people. I am generally against waterboarding…but in Cheney, Rummy, and Linda H case…I could probably make an exception…it might not give good information but it wouldnt be all that bad to have them experience it.

sorry

Robert G. Oler

that phrase to me is like “shovel ready” or “regime change” …

stuck in LEO?

It is like saying “we are stuck going 300 MPH in a B29 and really I would like to go Mach .82 in a B52″…problem is that turbojets have not yet been invented.

For “most” Americans there is “stuck on earth”…most Americans who argue for going to the Moon or Mars really are never going…they are just looking for some vicarious experience in seeing others go…truth be told if you photoshoped people into the pictures this folks wouldnt know if they were from oh say Messenger the Mercury probe.

For the nation to spend a lot of money to do something (and that is true if it is Lewis and Clark going west or “leaving LEO) there has to be a reason …and it has to be more then “flags and footprints”…

there really has to be some economic reason (other then “save our phoney balony jobs”) to do something that cost billions of dollars otherwise what “space advocates” are advocating is simply pork barrel spending.

There is a reason for human kind to be in LEO. We are learning to operate efficiently and at some reasonable cost there…and if we do not then there is probably no reason to go “back to the Moon” or have colonies on Mars…

the “go because it is there” argument is just about like “I double dare you to jump off that cliff”.

Robert G. Oler