Huh? The total SpaceX COTS award was only $278 million. The total OSC COTS award was only $170 million.

The total COTS budget was $500 million. (The rest went to NASA and Kistler.)

“6 billion bucks extra is to pay NASA’s share of development for a crew carrier, presumably on a different launcher.”

No. The Augustine Committee estimated $2-2.5B for three crew taxi awards with one falling out partway through development — or two final providers.

“6 billion is about enough to pay most of the costs of developing _one_ new launch vehicle”

No. The Augustine Committee estimated $3B for man-rating an existing LV.

“Developing an even larger HLV — this money is not in the White House proposal”

There is HLV money in the 2011 proposal. But no HLV is going to be finished in five years. (Any White House budget only goes out five years.)

FWIW…

Developing an even larger HLV for post-ISS operations, whether Ares V or Ares-V-lite or some EELV-derived launcher might cost 25 to 40 billion dollars; this money is not in the White House proposal. (Do a web search on “NASA launcher cost Congress” or somthing of that ilk — there’s a Congressional Research Service paper from a couple years back comparing costs of different possible NASA programs.)

No, the commercial crew investment over the next five years has been quoted at $3 billion and change and that’s presumably for multiple systems.

“COTS on Steroids? This is cheaper?”

Even at $6 billion, it would be a fraction of the projected development costs for Ares I/Orion.

FWIW…

Compare how NASA HSF and the military get their payloads into space. The military uses commercial rockets like Atlas and Delta, but that doesn’t cause us to say we’ve given up on our nation’s military space program. If commercial launch procurements work for nation-critical launches like those for GPS, spy satellites, missile warning satellites, and so on, they should work for NASA HSF.

The space program should not be merely NASA rocket-building.

Yes, and we will when the budget comes out and further talks happen. I’ll note the excellent point made on Space.com that everything that has been said is rumored information about a budget that hasn’t been released yet. We don’t even know what the Constellation cancellation looks like or if it will be a repeat of the Freedom–>ISS transition. In short, we don’t know a thing for sure, and we shouldn’t, because it’s not actually out yet.

When he “cancels” Constellation will he let everyone go or will he keep everyone on the job and transfer them to the new program (whatever that is).

So, will the people working “Constellation” today building Ares and the support pieces like redoing pads/firing rooms at say KSC, be given pink slips as in it’s cancelled and we don’t need you — go home.

Or, will those people be moved from “Constellation” to “the new HLV program” (Whatever Obama calls it).

That could be huge across the country. Because assuming you will need a HLV and the support for that HLV and we already employ people on Constellation it would seem foolish to get rid of all those people and then try to hire them back in the near future, especially with jobs being such a big part of his concern lately.

So, if the NASA budget supports those jobs today and the budget increases somewhat this year then those jobs SHOULD be there tomorrow.

That is what everyone is worried about… How will the transfer from one program to the next be done ?

Maybe they want to promote competition and get more players in the field. Maybe they want more than a capsule, how would that be for a change? Maybe they want to create jobs ($6B / $200K ~ 30K jobs for 1 year or 3K jobs over 10 years)? Who knows?

COTS on Steroids? This is cheaper?

Prediction: Orion Lite will NOT come to be due to legal issues.