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	<title>Comments on: ATK hedges their bets about the future</title>
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		<title>By: Trent Waddington</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2010/05/07/atk-hedges-their-bets-about-the-future/#comment-301777</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Trent Waddington]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 May 2010 04:19:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.spacepolitics.com/?p=3448#comment-301777</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mike, uh huh.  So you weren&#039;t making a dishonest claim you were just making an irrelevant one?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mike, uh huh.  So you weren&#8217;t making a dishonest claim you were just making an irrelevant one?</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Kent</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2010/05/07/atk-hedges-their-bets-about-the-future/#comment-301690</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Kent]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 May 2010 17:36:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.spacepolitics.com/?p=3448#comment-301690</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Trent Waddington wrote:

&lt;i&gt;Mike, Iâ€™m no fan of â€œthe Ares familyâ€ but claiming Falcon 9 has flight history thanks to Falcon I is just as dishonest as claiming that Ares I has flight history thanks to the shuttle program.&lt;/i&gt;

I made no such claim, or any claim, about the Falcon 9 in this thread.  My only claim on the Falcon anything was that the Falcon 1 has flown five times, which it has.

Mike]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Trent Waddington wrote:</p>
<p><i>Mike, Iâ€™m no fan of â€œthe Ares familyâ€ but claiming Falcon 9 has flight history thanks to Falcon I is just as dishonest as claiming that Ares I has flight history thanks to the shuttle program.</i></p>
<p>I made no such claim, or any claim, about the Falcon 9 in this thread.  My only claim on the Falcon anything was that the Falcon 1 has flown five times, which it has.</p>
<p>Mike</p>
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		<title>By: Fred</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2010/05/07/atk-hedges-their-bets-about-the-future/#comment-301592</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Fred]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 May 2010 05:44:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.spacepolitics.com/?p=3448#comment-301592</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The thing that worries me is that the good Senator Shelby, by putting that clause into the resoltion protecting Constellation has made it illegal for NASA to actually start spending any money on the new plan, including Commercial Crew until the new NASA budget bill is passed. All the money has to go (and keep going) to Constellation.
If, as seems likely, the new budget is not passed this year and a continuing resolution is put in place, doesn&#039;t it mean that we won&#039;t actually get any spending on Commercial Crew for another 12 months.
Won&#039;t that extend the HSF gap by another 12 months?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The thing that worries me is that the good Senator Shelby, by putting that clause into the resoltion protecting Constellation has made it illegal for NASA to actually start spending any money on the new plan, including Commercial Crew until the new NASA budget bill is passed. All the money has to go (and keep going) to Constellation.<br />
If, as seems likely, the new budget is not passed this year and a continuing resolution is put in place, doesn&#8217;t it mean that we won&#8217;t actually get any spending on Commercial Crew for another 12 months.<br />
Won&#8217;t that extend the HSF gap by another 12 months?</p>
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		<title>By: Al Fansome</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2010/05/07/atk-hedges-their-bets-about-the-future/#comment-301530</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Al Fansome]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 May 2010 00:15:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.spacepolitics.com/?p=3448#comment-301530</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Constellation supporters should be scared.  Even ATK is trying to reposition itself.

No longer is ATK fighting to protect Ares 1.  Instead, it is focused on &quot;protecting the (ATK-part of the) industrial base&quot;.  

This is basically an acknowledgment of reality -- that the Ares 1 is probably going to die.

They are also focused on trying to capture some of that gamechanging technology money.  They must have figured out that they need to stop attacking NASA if they have ANY chance of capturing the new money.

Cost-plus contractors are not stupid.  It is against their nature to get into fights with their customer.

Boeing was the first to come over when Brewster Shaw stood up to get his &quot;CCDV&quot; money.

Orbital came over by repeatedly publishing releases (and are helping bring the Virginia delegation) as well as Mikulski.

Lockheed cut a deal for a CRV, and is coming over.  The Colorado delegation is coming with them.

ATK can see where the herd is going, and is now changing its position.

This shifting in position will continue through Summer.

FWIW,

   - Al]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Constellation supporters should be scared.  Even ATK is trying to reposition itself.</p>
<p>No longer is ATK fighting to protect Ares 1.  Instead, it is focused on &#8220;protecting the (ATK-part of the) industrial base&#8221;.  </p>
<p>This is basically an acknowledgment of reality &#8212; that the Ares 1 is probably going to die.</p>
<p>They are also focused on trying to capture some of that gamechanging technology money.  They must have figured out that they need to stop attacking NASA if they have ANY chance of capturing the new money.</p>
<p>Cost-plus contractors are not stupid.  It is against their nature to get into fights with their customer.</p>
<p>Boeing was the first to come over when Brewster Shaw stood up to get his &#8220;CCDV&#8221; money.</p>
<p>Orbital came over by repeatedly publishing releases (and are helping bring the Virginia delegation) as well as Mikulski.</p>
<p>Lockheed cut a deal for a CRV, and is coming over.  The Colorado delegation is coming with them.</p>
<p>ATK can see where the herd is going, and is now changing its position.</p>
<p>This shifting in position will continue through Summer.</p>
<p>FWIW,</p>
<p>   &#8211; Al</p>
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		<title>By: Trent Waddington</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2010/05/07/atk-hedges-their-bets-about-the-future/#comment-301525</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Trent Waddington]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 May 2010 23:56:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.spacepolitics.com/?p=3448#comment-301525</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mike, I&#039;m no fan of &quot;the Ares family&quot; but claiming Falcon 9 has flight history thanks to Falcon I is just as dishonest as claiming that Ares I has flight history thanks to the shuttle program.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mike, I&#8217;m no fan of &#8220;the Ares family&#8221; but claiming Falcon 9 has flight history thanks to Falcon I is just as dishonest as claiming that Ares I has flight history thanks to the shuttle program.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Michael Kent</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2010/05/07/atk-hedges-their-bets-about-the-future/#comment-301522</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Kent]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 May 2010 23:35:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.spacepolitics.com/?p=3448#comment-301522</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[borecrawler wrote:

&lt;i&gt; When they become aware of how effective Obama is at creating artificial goals with untested commercial vehicles, costing taxpayers much more than proven Ares technology, they will most likely switch sides.&lt;/i&gt;

&quot;Untested&quot;?  The Atlas V has flown actual flights 21 times, the Delta IV 12 times, and the Falcon 1 five times.  The Ares family of rockets?  Zero.

&quot;Costing taxpayers much more than...Ares&quot;?  According to Steve Cook, the former NASA program manager for Ares, the Ares I will cost taxpayers $35 billion -- that&#039;s &quot;billion&quot;, with a &quot;b&quot; -- to develop, and Ares V will cost taxpayers an additional $40 billion -- that&#039;s also &quot;billion&quot;, with a &quot;b&quot; -- on top of Ares I&#039;s cost to develop.

Ares I would carry 55,000 lbs to LEO.  The Delta IV Heavy can also carry 55,000 lbs to LEO and already exists, so its development cost to NASA is zero.  How much did it cost the Air Force to develop?  $500 million -- that&#039;s &quot;million&quot;, with an &quot;m&quot;.

How do existing vehicles with no development cost end up &quot;costing taxpayers much more&quot; than the $35 billion necessary to develop Ares I?

It&#039;s not flight costs.  According to the Augustine committee, the per-flight cost of the Ares I would be over $1 billion.  The per-flight cost of the Delta IV Heavy is about $250 million.

Given these well-publicized numbers, how can you even remotely justify your claims?

Mike]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>borecrawler wrote:</p>
<p><i> When they become aware of how effective Obama is at creating artificial goals with untested commercial vehicles, costing taxpayers much more than proven Ares technology, they will most likely switch sides.</i></p>
<p>&#8220;Untested&#8221;?  The Atlas V has flown actual flights 21 times, the Delta IV 12 times, and the Falcon 1 five times.  The Ares family of rockets?  Zero.</p>
<p>&#8220;Costing taxpayers much more than&#8230;Ares&#8221;?  According to Steve Cook, the former NASA program manager for Ares, the Ares I will cost taxpayers $35 billion &#8212; that&#8217;s &#8220;billion&#8221;, with a &#8220;b&#8221; &#8212; to develop, and Ares V will cost taxpayers an additional $40 billion &#8212; that&#8217;s also &#8220;billion&#8221;, with a &#8220;b&#8221; &#8212; on top of Ares I&#8217;s cost to develop.</p>
<p>Ares I would carry 55,000 lbs to LEO.  The Delta IV Heavy can also carry 55,000 lbs to LEO and already exists, so its development cost to NASA is zero.  How much did it cost the Air Force to develop?  $500 million &#8212; that&#8217;s &#8220;million&#8221;, with an &#8220;m&#8221;.</p>
<p>How do existing vehicles with no development cost end up &#8220;costing taxpayers much more&#8221; than the $35 billion necessary to develop Ares I?</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not flight costs.  According to the Augustine committee, the per-flight cost of the Ares I would be over $1 billion.  The per-flight cost of the Delta IV Heavy is about $250 million.</p>
<p>Given these well-publicized numbers, how can you even remotely justify your claims?</p>
<p>Mike</p>
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		<title>By: Ferris Valyn</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2010/05/07/atk-hedges-their-bets-about-the-future/#comment-301501</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ferris Valyn]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 May 2010 21:54:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.spacepolitics.com/?p=3448#comment-301501</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[borecrawler - the fact that you seem to think that ATK is building the Launch Abort System (they weren&#039;t) is indicative of the various other mistakes in your post.

&lt;blockquote&gt;Obama is at creating artificial goals&lt;/blockquote&gt;
How is a 2020 deadline for lunar return not artificial?

&lt;blockquote&gt;untested commercial vehicles&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Atlas V is untested?  Delta IV is untested?  And lets be fair, Falcon 9 is on the pad right now, while Ares I is years away from being on the pad

&lt;blockquote&gt;than proven Ares technology&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Um, exactly what examples of proof do you have of Ares I tech working?  Ares I-X was not Ares I

Finally, opposition to Constellation is also bipartisan.  And the support for Obama&#039;s proposal is growing]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>borecrawler &#8211; the fact that you seem to think that ATK is building the Launch Abort System (they weren&#8217;t) is indicative of the various other mistakes in your post.</p>
<blockquote><p>Obama is at creating artificial goals</p></blockquote>
<p>How is a 2020 deadline for lunar return not artificial?</p>
<blockquote><p>untested commercial vehicles</p></blockquote>
<p>Atlas V is untested?  Delta IV is untested?  And lets be fair, Falcon 9 is on the pad right now, while Ares I is years away from being on the pad</p>
<blockquote><p>than proven Ares technology</p></blockquote>
<p>Um, exactly what examples of proof do you have of Ares I tech working?  Ares I-X was not Ares I</p>
<p>Finally, opposition to Constellation is also bipartisan.  And the support for Obama&#8217;s proposal is growing</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Bennett</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2010/05/07/atk-hedges-their-bets-about-the-future/#comment-301499</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bennett]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 May 2010 21:42:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.spacepolitics.com/?p=3448#comment-301499</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;untested commercial vehicles&quot;

Atlas V and Delta IV are untested?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;untested commercial vehicles&#8221;</p>
<p>Atlas V and Delta IV are untested?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: borecrawler</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2010/05/07/atk-hedges-their-bets-about-the-future/#comment-301494</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[borecrawler]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 May 2010 21:21:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.spacepolitics.com/?p=3448#comment-301494</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Most of the senators and congressmen in non-space states are simply ignorant of the facts surrounding Obama&#039;s space policy. When they become aware of how effective Obama is at creating artificial goals with untested commercial vehicles, costing taxpayers much more than proven Ares technology, they will most likely switch sides. This is already happening. Currently, support for keeping Constellation is one of the few issues that has a bi-partisan backing! I, for one, would like to see ATK build the boosters and Launch Abort hardware for Constellation.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Most of the senators and congressmen in non-space states are simply ignorant of the facts surrounding Obama&#8217;s space policy. When they become aware of how effective Obama is at creating artificial goals with untested commercial vehicles, costing taxpayers much more than proven Ares technology, they will most likely switch sides. This is already happening. Currently, support for keeping Constellation is one of the few issues that has a bi-partisan backing! I, for one, would like to see ATK build the boosters and Launch Abort hardware for Constellation.</p>
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		<title>By: amightywind</title>
		<link>http://www.spacepolitics.com/2010/05/07/atk-hedges-their-bets-about-the-future/#comment-301462</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[amightywind]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 May 2010 18:23:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.spacepolitics.com/?p=3448#comment-301462</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ferris Valyn wrote:
&quot;rather than chest-thumping that does nothing.&quot;

If one policy can be called &#039;chest-thumping&#039; another may be called &#039;limp-wristed&#039;. You have a preview of &#039;progressive policy&#039; in the fall of Greece&#039;s kleptocracy.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ferris Valyn wrote:<br />
&#8220;rather than chest-thumping that does nothing.&#8221;</p>
<p>If one policy can be called &#8216;chest-thumping&#8217; another may be called &#8216;limp-wristed&#8217;. You have a preview of &#8216;progressive policy&#8217; in the fall of Greece&#8217;s kleptocracy.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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