No, per Augustine, restoring Constellation to anything resembling a reasonable schedule and retaining ISS through 2020 requires $5 billion per year. $3 billion is if you’re willing to accept the existing, multi-year Constellation schedule slips and put ISS in the drink mid-decade.

Shuttle “extension” is arguably impossible at this point. The program can be “reconstituted”, but the costs of bringing back and replacing the many suppliers that have shut down is unknown — maybe hundreds of millions to low billions of dollars. You have to make that downpayment before paying for operations at $2 billion per year. And you can only run Shuttle at that low of a budget for only a year or two. A normal Shuttle operations budget not in shutdown mode will cost you $4-5 billion per year. And then there’s system recertification costs per CAIB.

FWIW…

Am I correct that it will cost 3B additional for Constellation and 2B for Shuttle extension a year?…

you are correct Robert G. Oler

Which is what… 60 to 90 days cost of the war[s].

Not all vehicles require an escape system to be “safe”. Sometimes such a system is actually a lot worse as it impacts the overall system of systems, in particular but not only added mass and consequences.

As far as SpaceShip we saw in their first (?, not sure first) flight how close it came to White Knight right after jettison. I cannot remember if they figured why. They also had some interesting flight anomalies and having an exceptional test-pilot at the helm probably saved the day. So there is a lot more than escape system to safety. The LAS story originated in the astronaut office at NASA if I remember correctly. A LAS might save people, just not on a sidemount and most likely not on any solid 1st stage for such a huge capsule. People most often see those as independent systems but they really are not. It really is a system of systems. They have to be taken together from the get-go or you end up with… the Orion/Ares debacle.

F9 might benefit from an escape system, Ares would probably never do.

Oh well…

I think for any vehicle’s reliability vs. escape should be considered. Neither Falcon 9 nor Ares I have a proven record of reliability. So an escape system would be prudent.

Gary Church, whoever he is, is almost as much fun as Gaetano of Ghost NASA fame … Mr. Church says that I am an ‘informercial’ guy, presumably he means a paid shill for SpaceX or the Commercial Space Foundation.

Gary Church is a troll. Many of us have taken a public pledge not to read or respond to his posts. This is driving him nutty, so he’s turned up his trolliness in recent days.

My suggestion is that you take the public pledge as well. Only our host Jeff can stop someone from posting, but we are under no obligation to read or respond to anyone’s posts.

The best way to deal with a troll is to ignore it. A troll is all about attention. When the troll doesn’t get attention, you increase the odds that it will move on. Unfortunately, someone always takes the bait, which is why it’s so hard to get rid of trolls, but at least by responding with silence you reinforce that the troll is in fact a loser.

Where’s your escape system in an airliner? We lost one crew during Apollo and nearly lost two more, and a launch abort system wouldn’t have helped any of them. In almost half a century of human spaceflight, no LAS has ever been used in flight. There was one on-pad abort 45 years ago. There was also one incident in which the LAS went off prematurely, causing one death and numerous injuries. What keeps you safe isn’t emergency procedures, it’s reliable components and systems, thoroughly tested.

Now, Mr. Church says that I am an ‘informercial’ guy, presumably he means a paid shill for SpaceX or the Commercial Space Foundation. If so, I want to know why I haven’t been receiving my paychecks. It is a liberty, being part of a dark conspiracy to destroy US-indigenous HSF and not even getting the blood-soaked spoils that I was promised.

Anyway, for the record, my idea of an ideal CLV is an Orion on an Atlas-V-5H2. Frankly, if NASA had gone down that path, I doubt that there would be a US-indigenous crew launch gap. Frankly, whilst I like SpaceX’s style, some of their recent mis-steps with Falcon-9 (specifically the core tank insulation and the FTS saga) have been rather cringe-worthy and I’m adding years for how long it will take them to get a crew into space, assuming that they do.

If you don’t like SpaceX’s in-house design, then use Orion LAS hardware:

spaceflightnow.com/news/n1002/18orionlas/

The Orion LAS is oversized for Dragon/Falcon 9 and overly complex and expensive for the application, but don’t make up statements that SpaceX hasn’t pursued an LAS when they have or that Dragon has no LAS hardware options when it has at least two.

Stop making stuff up.

“You are a joke.”

This from the poster who makes false claims about Dragon crew escape, sideline Shuttle-derived HLV capabilities, and human Mars mission masses.

Really?

Look in the mirror, doctor heal thyself, black kettles and pots, glass house and stones, and all that.

“Wrong on basic systems knowledge.”

Actually, I have to correct my earlier post. Your basic systems knowledge (or lack thereof) has been wrong three times (not twice) in under a week. See directly above.

“Which it will one day soon when this tourist scam is exposed for what it is.”

What “tourist scam”? NASA is contracting with SpaceX and other companies to demonstrate human ETO transport capabilities and deliver human ETO transport services that NASA needs. This is transport of and supporting professional astronauts, not tourists.

Again, stop making stuff up.

“Pursuing- like fusion? always around the corner. Like VASMIR?”

No, those technologies don’t appear on that slide. Learn how to use a mouse, click on a link, read, comprehend, and think before you post.

And for the umpteenth time, stop making stuff up.

“The infomercial team…”

There’s no “team”. You’re just wrong and multiple other posters know better.

Take a hint, Sherlock.

“…has tag teamed me to exhaustion.”

You’ve been confronted with actual facts backed by real references showing that you’re wrong on multiple counts, and that makes your ranting no fun. It has nothing to do with “exhaustion”.

“I have taken on all their lies and given back all their insults tit for tat… So have fun smearing me while I recharge my batteries for a couple days.”

Try learning something while you’re gone and getting some treatment for that megalomania.

Ugh…

We’d prefer a few months, or years. But if ignorami like you never come back, few will weep.