“I wouldn’t be so pessimistic. Consider that the following launchers have all been developed in the US since 1990 (less than a generation):”

I was thinking of it from a standpoint of vehicle longevity, that once introduced, that they tend to stick around for a long time. Good point on new products being introduced, and there is still more in the pipeline.

What’s really missing is the lack of LEO commerce, which will be needed to truly drive the standardization.

Byeman wrote @ September 16th, 2010 at 7:45 am

“Standardization already exists. 4 and 5 meter diameter fairings, 37, 45 & 66 inch clampbands, standard payload buses, etc. A Boeing 601 spacecraft can fly on Proton, Atlas, Delta, Sealaunch, Ariane, etc.”

To a degree, yes, but though the outside diameters may be standard, the internal payload dimensions seem to vary. This is not holding back the industry right now, as we don’t have a transportation need for bulk cargo to LEO.

It will actually be a sign of a maturing marketplace if we find that launchers and customers want more standards adopted – but I think that’s going to take a number of years, until commercial activity in LEO gets established.

My $0.02

The Vision specifically called for an affordable transportation system. Unfortunately for all of us, Mike Griffin had champagne tastes on a beer budget. His architecture is his achievement, so stop trying to tie it to others.

You state that you believe conservatism is insidious.
I certainly do not hold that view. Check this out for some insight:
Pascal Bruckner’s Le sanglot de l’homme blanc (The Tears of the White Man: Compassion as Contempt).

I was very much alive during the Sixties (a young adult). I am well aware of the history because it is mine. I know about Ralph Abernathy and about poverty. I understand how entrenched politics and stifling ideology in inner cities and in poor rural areas (here in the U.S. and globally) hold people back.

I also know about vision, inspiration and freedom and how they can transform one’s spirit and raise their outlook about what they can accomplish. It sets them free to excel and they eagerly pass that spark — the promise of each individual — on to their children.

“It would have to be pretty incremental too, since new launcher introduction is almost a generational event nowadays (human generations).”

I wouldn’t be so pessimistic. Consider that the following launchers have all been developed in the US since 1990 (less than a generation):

Pegasus
Taurus
Minotaur (in several flavors)
Athena I and II (which Lockheed is now offering again)
Delta III
Delta IV Medium and Heavy
Atlas III
Atlas V
Falcon 1
Falcon 9

With the exception of Delta III and Altas III, all of these are still in service and Taurus II is coming soon. That’s a pretty good clip for commercial launch vehicle development (and not one vehicle developed by NASA). The industry is progressing, though not as fast as we would like and largely out of view of the HSF community.

“There is actually a fair amount of standardization in the medium lift launch vehicles that cater to GTO launches. While it is no where near the degree of that exists in containerizes shipping, intelligent policy could nudge things further in that direction.”

I kind of rethought what I wrote after I pushed “submit”, and certainly one could make an argument that I was thinking horizontal containers solve something that vertical doesn’t, but other than stacking loads, it probably doesn’t matter too much, especially with bulk payloads like LH2/LOX.

I don’t know if NASA is the right group to push standardization, but it will certainly require a realization by some government entity and the launcher industry that a set of standards would help push costs down and availability up. It would have to be pretty incremental too, since new launcher introduction is almost a generational event nowadays (human generations). The first things they could start with are the payload adapters and fairings, which like you point out, would help to switch to other launchers on short notice.

It’s all part of turning space into a business, not an event.

“With vertical launchers, I don’t know if we’ll ever get to something like standard shipping containers (used in the shipping industry), but if we ever get HOTOL figured out, maybe it could happen. However we have a longs ways to go to get there.”

There is actually a fair amount of standardization in the medium lift launch vehicles that cater to GTO launches. While it is no where near the degree of that exists in containerizes shipping, intelligent policy could nudge things further in that direction.

Satellite manufactures want to be able to swap payloads between launchers for cost, schedule and competitive reasons so there has been a degree of standardization on interfaces, environments and payload processing. Payload masses vary but the upper end of the market is around 6000 kg to GTO, though this is creeping upwards steadily over time so launch capabilities have been creeping upwards as well.

NASA could do a lot to push standardization by adopting a medium lift exploration architecture rather than developing an HLV. For example, they could define a standard 25,000 kg LEO payload envelope build BEO missions that are assembled out of standard elements that fit within that envelope. Given the number of elements required for a BEO mission, launch providers will have ample incentive to adopt the standard and fund any upgrades out of their own funds.

The advantage of standardization would be that payload could be swapped between launch vehicles in the event of a launch failure and commoditizing launch services would drive down prices. It would also make international cooperation easier because standard payloads allocated among partner nations.

I don’t think we have to wait until the distant future to take advantage of standardization in the launch market.

Don’t let the door hit you on the way out!

But what drives me up the wall even more frequently is people who scrawl their blather and/or reasonable insights all over the world wide web yet never take the time to ensure that what they write is correctly written.

Smart up, you lazy s.o.b.s. You’ll do the discussion a world of good and, perhaps, tighten up your words, gain some respect, and waste less of our time.

A grammar N a z i. Awesome.

As for those who already do take the time to write properly, THANK YOU.

What was your space policy point again?