I am pretty certain that the relationship between China and Nk has been changed for many years now, since say the mid 1990’s.

NK is slightly more of a client state for China than Israel is for the US. You know how much influence the US has over Israel? It may be that China has just a little more influence now over NK.

One thing for sure is that China has a surplus of single young men with no women available, and this will likely play a large role in future NK – China relations. If NK does not re-unify with the south, they are likely to get even crazier due to the results of this interaction.

But all of this is just speculation a long way from events from a stroke damaged brain.

One thing is certain, though, China will not be at a technical level to provide ISS services until about 2015.

BYW, You know who the greatest American President was?
Bill Clinton.
Just ask any high school boy.

Agreed. And I think in that lies the reason why we don’t hear outward condemnation from China. All China has to say on the matter is essentially “Let’s everybody stall calm and talk this over.” Case in point: requesting the highly improbable return to six party talks on the heels of the two most agressive acts since the artmistice. Either way, North Korea has nearly no bearing on China’s participation, or lack thereof, in international space efforts. A few years ago it may have been a different story but I think everyone that isn’t under the influence of DPRK media blitzes sees the writing on the wall, and I think China, in particular is tired of NK blowing China’s international political capital for a few crumbs of food aid.

Let’s not count our Dragons before they hatch, while hoping for the best.

If COTS Demo 1 is a success, SpaceX will be in the cat-bird seat and start building a reputation for reliability and thusly, name their own price after conclusion of present contracts (even if future contracts remain fixed cost).

The ultra conservatives in Congress will perk up their ears and take notice. Not all Tea Partiers are from Southern States and Elon has elements of his company in Texas and Florida. Opposition will disappear eventually as SpaceX successes build, SLS funds shrink and launch schedule slips.

Like CxP did.

Under current NASA planning, 2020 is not the maximum life of the ISS, it is the Minimum life! ISS is not “slated for splash in 2020″. Seeing as Shuttle was kept creaking along for 30+ years, ISS might live just as long.

“The DPRK has been on its last legs for decades. All it needs is something to push it over the brink. China pulling out as an ally and the death of Kim Jong Il should be enough to tip the scales.”

What China wants is an orderly unwinding of the DPRK – no regional war that would inevitably put American troops on their border and no economic collapse with millions of starving peasants fleeing across their border either. China’s interests will lead them to support the DPRK when and where it will prevent either of those outcomes.

nice points…but the last thing really I am worried about is a backup for the Soyuz.

First off my “guess” is that the Chinese capsule wont all that easily back up the Russians. I assume but dont know for a fact that the Russian docking interfaces will work as is for the Chinese.

Nor do I see a Chinese “progress” flying now…and while we might put crew on a Chinese vehicle I dont know what the training interfaces would be…

And other then the booster being the problem, if the Soyuz is a problem then the Chinese might have the same problem

(at least these are the issues that I would see right off the bat).

But most important…if the Soyuz goes blunk then I suspect that the move will be very quick to “human rate” a Dragon…there isnt much left to do in my view, other then verify booster ops and a LAS…I bet you once the cargo version is flying then the crewed version can, under the appropriate incentives move pretty quickly.

Robert G. Oler