“Nonsense. Dragon has flown nobody and is hardly a viable alternative to a GP spacecraft. But you’re welcome to believe otherwise.”

Same to you.

“Branson will be flying crewed craft before Dragon carries anybody.”

Are you making up something? They may or not. I wish them the best of luck too. See you seem to have an axe to grind with SpaceX. I don’t care. What is important is that the transition to the commercial sector actually happens soon. VG, SpaceX, SN, who cares? I mean save for those working for these companies.

Nonsense. Dragon has flown nobody and is hardly a viable alternative to a GP spacecraft. But you’re welcome to believe otherwise. Branson will be flying crewed craft before Dragon carries anybody.

“Constellation as known is dead. Orion is NASA’s only hope to stay in the HSF game. Build it and fly it on existing LVs through the Age of Austerity. You do understand that discretionary spending has to be cut next year. Did you see 60 Minutes Sunday night? State governments are the next economic train wreck which will need bailing out. And ‘by the way’– in the Age of Austerity, its most definitely private vs. state. We know why private capital remains skittish– same reason it has for half a century. And the ‘state’ has to borrow 41 cents of every dollar it spends.”

See I tell you: Orion will NOT fly, Dragon just took it off the picture, and here comes some savings. As for the rest… Usual slogan.

“@Coastal Ron:”

You were really responding to William Mellberg, not me.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2013713745_dreamliner19.html

From what I read and listen to coming from Bigelow Aerospace he does not want to be in the commercial hotel business and he reasserts this in every conversation. He wants to be in the wholesale leasing business for destinations. It is my understanding you could not just buy a ticket and fly to a BA space station. You would have to have a predetermined and leased space available for you when you get there.

That means a company like Space Adventures would have to first lease a spot on the station and outfit it to be a hotel for tourists.

I have said before and will state my position again, I believe commercial space will still be mainly a governments only game. What Bigelow offers more that anything is a lowcost way for potential 2nd and 3rd tier (50-60) countries to have a full up space program. I believe the six MOU’s that BA has already signed ( none for a tourist) with other countries is going to be expanded on a lot faster than a stricly space tourism line.

As most of the private astronauts to the ISS have shown is they want to not only travel to space but also have it financed by others. Garriot and others did experiements, websites, books and I believe a lot of the first “tourists” will actually be trying to make a buck while they are doing it to try and offset costs.

Once the reality that there is a easily accesible commercial destination in space and there is a the same for passenger service I believe people are going to be absolutely AMAZED at the creativeness of American entrepreneurs about how to get their trip paid for. From reality TV, to endorsements, product testing, commercials, games etc etc etc.

If there is a way to make a buck in space, to help pay for the ride, I have total faith in our inventiveness in finding a way to get it creatively financed, including installment plans.

I think we’ve found some common ground. I tend to agree with most of what you wrote in your last posts.

In fact, while some of my colleagues think I’m wasting my time with these exchanges … such is not the case. Intelligent exchanges (ideas, not insults) can be very persuasive, and I don’t mind admitting that you (and others) have persuaded me on several points. (So did the recent success scored by SpaceX.)

There is no denying the logic of lower launch costs as provided by new “commercial” enterprises such as SpaceX and others — operating without a laundry list of federal regulations that have driven up the cost of accessing space rather than bringing it down. And there is no question that providing lower cost launch services will pave the way toward more exciting exploits beyond Earth orbit.

I guess the fact of the matter is that no one can accurately forecast the future. Only Time will tell who is right and who is wrong. I suspect we’ll all win some and lose some.

As I get older, my starry-eyed youthful enthusiasm has been dimmed just a tad by a touch of skepticism — the result, I suppose, of real world experience. Yet, I still retain much of that enthusiasm, which is why a fellow like Elon Musk and his SpaceX team can still fire my imagination. (I first heard Musk being interviewed by Charlie Rose on PBS quite a few years ago, and he’s been firing my imagination ever since).

I also recognize that every great journey begins with a single step.

Some (most) of the space entrepreneurs will probably stumble and fall for some of the reasons I’ve mentioned in our exchanges. Many already have. But a few will go the distance and achieve great things. And they (like the others who have tried) have my respect and admiration … and gratitude.

Looking back at the history of commercial aviation, there were some remarkable visionaries — Juan Trippe, C.R. Smith, Bill Patterson and Howard Hughes, among them. We see some of those same types today — Elon Musk being just one of several.

Perhaps all of us are a bit frustrated by the slow rate of progress. And maybe that is the source of a few of our more heated exchanges. But most of us, I think, are all focused on the same thing: space … the final frontier.

To those who have given me food for thought with your civil exchanges and mature comments, I say “Thank You.” Intelligent people can disagree without being disagreeable. (Sometimes they can even change a few minds.)

And to ALL of you, I say … Happy Holidays and Best Wishes for the New Year.

Sincerely,

Bill Mellberg

I’m just saying that some people are being overly optimistic in suggesting that “common persons” will be flying into space anytime soon, and overly pessimistic in claiming that NASA should be ashamed of themselves for not focusing on that goal up until now.

1. No one’s being overly optimistic about the chances the general public will have access to space in the near future, largely because we’ve been dumping $20 billion a year dicking around LEO, putting up expensive ornaments for the ivory tower crowd, and pretending it’s important to put a Belgian or two in space.

2. NASA should be ashamed of herself. She’s spent the past two decades wasting time with the ISS instead of taking the next step to open up the Earth sphere–the permanently expanding expedition to the Moon.