“No, if you think they are you are not talking about any market PWR or anyone else is intersted in.”

According to Aviation Week:

“The joint effort [XCOR/ULA] is to develop a low-cost upper-stage engine in the same class as the venerable RL-10.”

ULA has seen the handwriting on the wall with SpaceX, and is attempting to lower the costs from their supply chain. I applaud their efforts – innovate or die!

Obviously, but given its form factor, look etc are copies of the Elise, and it certainly can’t sell itself as being a better performing – or durable – or luxurious – sports car in capability, etc. Expecting folks to buy at 2-3 times the price just to be battery powered is a very questionable market plan.

>>The GM EV1…”
> Is that your sole justification for why electric cars will not succeed in the consumer marketplace?

No I referred to it for cost per mile, but given it was the bigest effort at a fuel electric, hail by electric fans as the car that was going to make electric main srteam, its high powe adn performance (actually the same boasts as Tesla), it not a bad model to reference.

> $500 dollars for a used battery is nothing.—

That’s only enough battery for a hybride- I.E. maybe a couple dozen miles, not 100+ for electric – and apparently not one used in that Pries. Its not what even Toyotas talking about for durability.

>> “Certainly they haven’t sold all that well up until now.”
> You’re a riot! Tell that to Toyota or Honda. ==
I’m using there numbers. The Pris has been almost half of all hybride sales, but in ten years of world sales they sold only about a million units, less then one years US sales of the Ford F-150, or the GM equivs.
>> “…you’ll never make back the higher cost and servicing costs, with gas savings.”
> You keep forgetting that the market is not purely driven by single factors, and
> certainly part of it is driven by emotional ones.
That’s true. The dominant reasons given for Pries owners buys were image. Fuel saving down a couple, saving money way down the list.

> == electric cars. The market will vote with their dollars, ==

They did, electrics and hybrids don’t sell.

You right though this is way of topic. If your intersted ni continuing – email me.

No, if you think they are you are not talking about any market PWR or anyone else is intersted in.

“XCOR and ULA Demonstrate Revolutionary Rocket Engine Nozzle Technology; Also Sign Contract for Liquid Hydrogen Engine Development

…Based on the results of these successful technology demonstrations, ULA today announced a larger follow-on program with XCOR to develop a liquid oxygen (LOX)/LH2 engine.”

So while PWR is complaining about the lack of orders, smaller companies are working on taking away their future orders. As I said before, you either innovate or die – PWR better figure out what they want to do.

Here’s the link:
http://xcor.com/press-releases/2011/11-03-22_XCOR_and_ULA_demonstrate_rocket_engine_nozzle.html

“The Tesla is based on a Lotus Elise…”

Kelly, it’s amazing that even though you’ve been a consumer for your whole life, you don’t understand the consumer market.

Luxury goods are not purchased based solely on tangibles like size, function or cost, but based on emotional desires. It doesn’t matter that Tesla uses parts from other car makers, it only matters that what they make creates a desire in their target market. I know this confuses you, but if you looked around, you would see plenty of example of it, including in your own house.

It’s the same thing that Virgin Galactic plays on to find customers. No normal person NEEDS to take a short trip to space, but Virgin Galactic has created a DESIRE for people to do so. You don’t NEED to watch movies or the TV, you have a DESIRE. It’s the same thing, but just on a different cost level.

“The GM EV1…”

Is that your sole justification for why electric cars will not succeed in the consumer marketplace? What a maroon!

“Not the price of electricity – the price of the batteries!”

You answered yourself at the end of your own post. Here is what Consumer Reports had to say:

“Our testers were also amazed how much the car drove like the new one we tested 10 years ago. It certainly didn’t seem like a car that had traveled nearly the distance to the Moon. We were also surprised to learn that the engine, transmission, and even shocks were all original.

So is an old Prius a still a good value? We think so.”

$500 dollars for a used battery is nothing. I spent $800 replacing the radiator on my car a couple of years ago. And once you factor in how much gas has been saved (~40 mpg on the 10-year old car), then it more than makes up for it. And now that the Prius and it’s ilk have 10 years more experience under their hoods, I think the current generation hybrids will perform as good or better.

Where are the facts that support your theories!

“Certainly they haven’t sold all that well up until now.”

You’re a riot! Tell that to Toyota or Honda. GM and Ford only recently got into this field, so it remains to be seen how quickly they’ll figure out the market, but the market is getting bigger every year. Maybe they don’t meet your expectation, but then again who are you? LOL

“…you’ll never make back the higher cost and servicing costs, with gas savings.”

You keep forgetting that the market is not purely driven by single factors, and certainly part of it is driven by emotional ones.

You also have to keep in mind that consumers like to experiment, and it’s because of their desire to try out new and unproven products that we get some of our new consumer categories. Home computers were thought of as toys when first marketed, but some saw their ultimate promise and drove the market towards what we have today. Hybrid and electric vehicles are moving along the same track, and especially in a world of $4+ gas and falling alternative energy costs, they are looking better and better.

But don’t worry about electric cars. The market will vote with their dollars, just like you will, and we’ll see who wins out. So far you’re wrong. What a surprise…

Signing off of this thread (thanks for the off-topic leeway Jeff).

>>Kelly Starks wrote @ March 20th, 2011 at 7:40 pm
>>Because he’s flying a lot less then previously suggesting he would…”

> When did he suggest anything to you?

In interviews in print and on air.

>> The Teslas aside from being insanely pricey…”

> To you, sure, but you are not the target market. Remember,
> he is selling a high-end sports car ==

Not that high end! The Tesla is based on a Lotus Elise which costs less then half what the tesla costs. You can get a high end Vette, AND a pretty good Porshe 911 for that. And pretty much all the gas you’ld burn.

>>And of course given electric cars are expensive to operate, and don’t sell well.”

> How are they expensive to operate? Based on the price for electricity==

Not the price of electricity – the price of the batteries! The GM EV1 using lead acid bats ate about $1.50worth of batteries per mile (The $50,000 bat pack dies after 30,000 miles or 3 average years of driving). The tesla and its ilk are projected to run well over twice that (though Musk assumes the types he uses will drop over a factor of 10 in costs by the time they burn out – but industry folks think thats ridiculous.

>== Do you have any facts to back up your assertions, or are you making this up too?

Lose the snide.

>== Just about every major car manufacturer thinks that electric
> or hybrid cars are going to be popular, ==

Thats a bit of a stretch. Certainly they haven’t sold all that well up until now. With the exception of some of the big GM hybride SUV’s (that GM sells at a big discount – or did a year or two ago) you’ll never make back the higher cost and servicing costs, with gas savings.,

>== Consumer Reports just did a follow-up report on a Toyota Prius,
> and found that the battery had lost little of it’s original capacity. ==

That’s unusually the bats generally don’t last that well. Certainly the bat manufacturers are dubious.

Are you referring to http://blogs.consumerreports.org/cars/2011/02/200000-mile-toyota-prius-still-performs.html
?

“CEO’s get replaced all the time.”

By Boards of Directors. Stockholders aren’t involved. You should read up on this in case you ever decide to buy stock in a company.

“Fine, But the gov, and the bidders on these things don’t agree with you.”

You don’t speak for either, so that’s not saying much.

“Because he’s flying a lot less then previously suggesting he would…”

When did he suggest anything to you? Unless you can provide some supporting info, I think you’re just making it up.

And in any case, even if their development schedule has moved to the right, that doesn’t support your assertion that “he’s not getting the scale of market he was assuming” or “hes going to the bank with much smaller checks to deposit”. I think you’re taking various articles out of context.

“The Teslas aside from being insanely pricey…”

To you, sure, but you are not the target market. Remember, he is selling a high-end sports car – it’s not a mass-market product. Do you say the same about Maserati or Lamborghini? Maybe you are too susceptible to marketing hype, and since you can’t afford the products, you get disappointed?

“And of course given electric cars are expensive to operate, and don’t sell well.”

How are they expensive to operate? Based on the price for electricity (~ $0.75/kwh), electric vehicles (including the Tesla) cost about 1/4 the cost of gasoline vehicles. Do you have any facts to back up your assertions, or are you making this up too?

As far as selling well, all cars are fungible forms of transportation. They compete with bicycles as well as public transportation. Just about every major car manufacturer thinks that electric or hybrid cars are going to be popular, and with gas prices climbing again, they likely will be. I know I’m waiting for plug-in hybrids, and then we’ll replace our short-distance car with one. The market is maturing, as well as the features and technologies, and they do address customer desires, which is who shells out the money.

One things for certain, and that is that hybrid batteries are performing well even after 10 years of use. Consumer Reports just did a follow-up report on a Toyota Prius, and found that the battery had lost little of it’s original capacity. That kind of news bodes well for all electric car makers, including Tesla, which builds and sells electric car technology as well as cars.

The technology part of their business, in which you said “Parts aren’t cars”, is part of Tesla’s revenue model. To you it may not make sense, but to Tesla investors it means that Tesla is positioned to ride the wave of electric car sales from not only Tesla branded cars, but Toyota and other car manufacturers too. It’s a brilliant strategy.

Remember it’s not the number of cars sold that matters to investors, but the overall revenue and future market strength. That is where Musk is doing a great job in positioning the company to leverage both sides of the market, which is similar to how he has been positioning SpaceX, both as a launch provider (Falcon series), and as a service provider (Dragon cargo, DragonLab, Dragon crew).

Times are good for Musk and his companies.

>>> Stockholders don’t get a vote on operational decisions, ==

>>Kelly Starks wrote @ March 19th, 2011 at 11:08 am

>>Sure they do – if they object, they vote you out of control of your company.”

>== you appear to have a romantic view of what stockholders want,
> and what they do,==

Not really. They want return on investment, and if they don’t think your going to get it for them with their money, and they give a he goes our our money goes…

CEO’s get replaced all the time.

>> “Both minor token programs. $2B is something…”

> I don’t know of any company that doesn’t consider a potential $2B
> contract win “major”. ==

When did the federal government become a company?

>>“Major programs must follow the big contract overhead,
>> oversight, paperwork, etc rules.”

> Let’s just cut this short and say that you and I disagree. ==

Fine, But the gov, and the bidders on these things don’t agree with you.

>> He is, since hes going to the bank with much smaller checks to deposit.”

>==What makes you think that?==

Because he’s flying a lot less then previously suggesting he would, adn now talks about not having a real chance at big high visibility contracts like commercial crew or COT-D(?) that he thought he had areal chance at.

>> [I just hope SpaceX and the Falcon/Dragons don’t wind up
>> being as bad a set of turkeys as the Tesla cars!]”

> Yes, I’m sure that’s why Toyota is buying parts from Tesla,
>as well as other companies, because they are such turkeys. ==

Parts aren’t cars. The Teslas aside from being insanely pricey, have a reputation for breaking whenever test drivers for car mags adn TV’ shows try to test them for articles. Times when they loaned one for use in a TV show or something, even when only on screen for a secoundthey weer a handfull — adn Musk has been fighting with Teslas management.

These are not good signs. And of course given electric cars are expensive to operate, and don’t sell well. Tesla’s no different, so its not likely to make any money.

“> Stockholders don’t get a vote on operational decisions, ==

Sure they do – if they object, they vote you out of control of your company.”

As a stockholder, and a major stockholder, and someone that knows a little about this subject, you appear to have a romantic view of what stockholders want, and what they do, but you don’t have any real knowledge about the subject.

“Both minor token programs. $2B is something…”

I don’t know of any company that doesn’t consider a potential $2B contract win “major”. You’d be an idiot to think otherwise.

“Major programs must follow the big contract overhead, oversight, paperwork, etc rules.”

Let’s just cut this short and say that you and I disagree. I’ve been on the winning end of major contract proposals, so I have some insight into this. From what I can tell, you have been a worker-bee, and have not had any program management responsibilities, so your insight is relegated to watercooler stories, and not any real knowledge of how many people are really involved.

“He is since hes going to the bank with much smaller checks to deposit.”

This is an odd statement. What makes you think that? He’s just about done with COTS, which means he’s getting ready for $133M payments for each CRS delivery. Plus he’s still taking in launch deposits. His annual revenue is getting ready to ramp up significantly, and has been growing quite a bit for the past couple of years, which have all been profitable.

“[I just hope SpaceX and the Falcon/Dragons don’t wind up being as bad a set of turkeys as the Tesla cars!]”

Yes, I’m sure that’s why Toyota is buying parts from Tesla, as well as other companies, because they are such turkeys. What a maroon!

>> Kelly Starks wrote @ March 17th, 2011 at 8:39 am

>>“It’s hard to justify to stockholders…”

> Stockholders don’t get a vote on operational decisions, ==

Sure they do – if they object, they vote you out of control of your company.

>> “No, SpaceX isn’t set up right to bid on major programs.”

> Oh? The COTS/CRS program wasn’t major – $1.9B just isn’t
> what it used to be. Or being one of four winners of the
> 10-year IDIQ NASA Launch Services (NLS) II contract was minor?

Both minor token programs. $2B is something like the yearly electric bill for NORAD command centers. A fraction of a training contract for JSC. A fraction of the cost projected for one launch of a Ares/Orion.
Compare that to say $20 billion for the Orion capsule development contract. $30B to develop each of the Ares designs.

>== why aren’t they set up to bid on major programs?==

Major programs must follow the big contract overhead, oversight, paperwork, etc rules. Rutan and some others tried to bid on Orion a few years back and found though they could do the ship, they’d need to bloat out their staffs several fold for all the paperwork and demanded organization changes (all that bureaucratic bloat new space fans laugh at old space companies for having).

You can structure your org to be lean and efficient, but then it can’t do all the bureaucratic hoops of big gov contracts. Set up for the later – your not the lean efficient organization anymore.

>> “…but he’s not getting the scale of market he was assuming a few years back.”

> Yep, I’m sure he’s crying all the way to the bank.

He is since hes going to the bank with much smaller checks to deposit.

And he dose talk about this in interviews. Certainly he was not happy to realize he hasn’t a shot at being a main suplier for CC. Not a big market at only 10 flights, but a few years ago he really looked like a shoe in with Orion such a mess. Now – hes the poster child of why CCdev should canceled.

[I just hope SpaceX and the Falcon/Dragons don’t wind up being as bad a set of turkeys as the Tesla cars!]