I would rather doubt that. Commercail crew plans to use Atlas and Falcon 9 as boosters both are exsiting boosters. SLS is yet to be built. Orion is a little ahead of the CST-100 but behind Dragon. If Dragon had had a life support system the crew would have lived on the first flight and there are commercially available life-support systems now thanks to CCDEV1.

Orion at best plans a unmanned test flight in 2013. CST100, and others plan both unmanned test flights and first manned flights in 2014 and 2015. Orion has to wait for SLS to be ready and that puts it at 2016(and even worse as NASA does not think it can be ready by then). Orion has a big political delay (can’t use Delta for crew)…CCDEV does not.

Nelson Bridwell wrote @ June 7th, 2011 at 6:33 pm
“Commercial crew has a foot in the door, and if they do not mess up (one major challenge will be the limited market size) they might own LEO within 10 years, but they really don’t have the capability or political backing to be able to leave earth orbit.”

You seem to be overlooking the obvious place this capability will be coming from (pay close attention to the parts about propulsion modules and radiation shielding)

http://moonandback.com/2011/06/03/robert-bigelows-keynote-address-at-the-2011-isdc-governors-gala/

…and assuming that this *must* happen via NASA rather than from a more likely source (which doesn’t care about political backing). Bigelow might not mount such a mission on a lark, but he sure as hell would if there was deamnd from tourists and/or sovereign clients.

http://www.spaceadventures.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=Lunar.welcome

There is even an outside chance that they might be able to arrange a landing…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2FpFZXWrvs

Once you’ve done it once, all the hardware design and planning is done so you can do it again. You may even be able to reuse much of the hardware because I doubt he’d do it such they you throw much away each time. As far as I know, Apollo didn’t reuse much across missions (which contributed to high costs), I suspect private missions would maximize reuse leading to lower costs for followon missions if they can just somehow make the first one happen.

“The reality is that the SLS and MPCV have very strong, very unified, bipartisan support in both houses of Congress.”

So did Constellation. Don’t confuse subcommittee support for Congress in general.

“But the current scatterbrain direction of the newspace efforts suggest that SLS and MPCV could become operational about the same time as commercial crew to ISS.”

That statement doesn’t even make sense.

“NewSpace”, which includes aerospace stalwarts like Boeing, OSC and SNC, is very focused on developing cargo & human transportation to LEO at cost levels far lower than what NASA can achieve on their own. Nothing “scatterbrain” about that, and completely separate from the NASA MPCV and SLS efforts (by law MPCV is only a backup for ISS support).

The MPCV could become “operational” by 2016, but it wouldn’t have a meaningful purpose since there are no complementary missions that are being funded for it. It would be limited to extended test flights, which could involve flights around the Moon, but otherwise just flying around in a small aluminum can. Oh the glory.

The SLS isn’t even defined, so it’s hard to see how anyone can say when even a first flight could occur, must less be “operational”. And who knows when, or if, it will ever be rated for humans to fly on it.

But let’s pretend that both the MPCV and the SLS could be ready to go in 2016 – then what? There are no missions funded for them, so while you could stick a 20t capsule on top of a 130t capable rocket, beyond validating the configuration the SLS is still a rocket with no meaningful payload.

No budget for an EDS. No budget for expandable living quarters for the MPCV so it could test out Zubrin-type long duration flying. And certainly no funding for a lunar mission.

When will payloads & missions designed for the SLS be ready? Heck, I’ll make it easier – when will Congress fund said programs?

Well Nelson?

The Space Review “Is Heavy Lift Necessary?”

Orlando Sentinel “NASA’s uncertain future: New rocket design in works, but its mission is unclear”

“Not really, if you revisit the Rogers report. Such is the symptoms of an aging bureaucracy. The management vs. engineering culture was pretty much in place. The ‘going in circles’ nature of the vehicle they were operating was decidely less motivating and quite a come down after destination projects like Apollo. ”

that is in my view the worst indictment possible of any organization and all parts of it.

Engineering is, well it should be a calling. If one is going to do engineering on anything the “joy” should be in the notion of practicing ones profession and doing it well. Bob Overmyer was a joy to be with and fly with and no matter what he was doing he took “test flying” pretty seriously, and I imagine did so even on his last flight.

I agree with Vulture…the shuttle was a far harder technical and management challenge then Apollo. Apollo was really a stunt…it was a one of effort that had no hint at operational. Making a system work, to do a task, to accomplish day in and day out a mission is a far more demanding task…

And yet I sadly think your statement is true. I hear the whinning of the folks (who are my neighbors) from JSC about how they need to be “inspired” …which is goofy. As I remind them “there are people on their fifth combat tour in either Afland or Iraq…why do we have to inspire you?”

The phrase “going around in circles” is another one of those ‘rising tides lift all boats” goofy sayings. It is designed to try and make something seem less then it is and something else more then it is.

NASA HSF must live and deal with the legacy that it killed 14 people and had near misses on others due to institutional incompetence. HAd they done this with an airliner…they would all be in front of the Harris county grand jury for manslaughter.

Robert G. Oler

I wrote:
“The Senate Launch system is never going to be built, and is not going to carry anyone.”

You replied (in part)
“The reality is that the SLS and MPCV have very strong, very unified, bipartisan support in both houses of Congress”

if saying it so made it so then the 8 years of Bush would have been a glorious time in American history and SArah Palin would be correct, Revere did ride to warn the British firing rounds out of his muzzle loader and ringing a bell! Sadly no matter how many times we try and rewrite history it is still not going to change it.

nor will saying what you said make it so. The Senate Launch System has support of Senators in space states and thats it. The rest of the support is what one Senator does for another so that the pork train keeps rolling…sadly for all this the pork train is collapsing under GOP economics as the nation slides deeper and deeper into a double dip recession.

It is going to be politically impossible to continue the Senate LAunch system particularly as it drones on to the highest launch cost in history.

You wrote:

“But the current scatterbrain direction of the newspace efforts suggest that SLS and MPCV could become operational about the same time as commercial crew to ISS”

HAH. NASA HSF has never met a deadline it couldnt not meet and tell us all why (space is hard you know) and the Senate Launch System will prove no different. Sadly this is the fault of NASA HSF. Those folks simply cannot manage anything any more. I sometimes wonder how they manage to flood the local eateries here at lunch. Those decisions must take all morning to come to.

Robert G. Oler

The reality is that the SLS and MPCV have very strong, very unified, bipartisan support in both houses of Congress. Despite your personal wishes otherwise, Bolden, Garver, and Obama simply do not have the Constitutional authority nor the required Congressional support to fully pull off the failed coup d’etat that was attempted last year.

If CCDev2 is successful, and commercial crew happens in a reasonable timeframe, at reasonable cost, then the commercial school of thought will gain greater credibility. But the current scatterbrain direction of the newspace efforts suggest that SLS and MPCV could become operational about the same time as commercial crew to ISS.