Or he’s a sufficient idiot to actually believe it himself. Granted, that would take a great deal of idiocy, but then, consider all his other posts. Under both names (if not more — he may also be abreakingwind, and DCSCA).

So can an EELV.

But going into deep space without an HLV is not going to work.

False, and obviously so to anyone with at least a superficial understanding of the issues. You are either ignorant or you are deliberately spreading lies. Perhaps you hope that if you repeat it often enough people will believe it?

“The Merlin is an engine that can probably be used in space but it is not in the class required for 1st stages.”

If you were a rocket scientist or engineer, then maybe your thoughts on this matter would be informed and worth considering. But you’re not, and real rocket scientists and engineers disagree with you. Actually I’m overstating that last part – they don’t even know that you exist, so they don’t know what babble you’re saying.

But it’s not only the product engineers that would disagree with you, but also the customers that have already signed up for $3B worth of launches with SpaceX. None of them would have purchased if they didn’t think that the Falcon 9 couldn’t do what it was advertised to do, and reliably so. Customers only look at the bottom line, and are generally risk adverse, so SpaceX has already garnered a lot of respect in the launch world with the approach they have taken, as well as their designs.

So go ahead and keeping trying to prove that the bumblebee cannot fly.

“A moon base to launch into deep space from is the next step.”

At this rate with the budget negotiations, we’re not going to the Moon at all if we’re waiting for the government to do it.

Which brings us back to the HLV question – when will it be used? When will Congress add a BEO, Moon, or Mars program to the budget that requires an HLV?

Until you can answer those questions, we don’t need an HLV, regardless the number of engines.

No thanks, I don’t take lessons from Russians.

I am tired of fighting about this with private space advocates. They way I talk about the hobby rocket is an attempt to point out the flaws in the new space dogma.

Musk did the best he could- a real smart guy obviously, but the engines are too small. He is trying to do what a 2 million pound F-1A was designed to do with a 150,000 pound engine.

The Merlin is an engine that can probably be used in space but it is not in the class required for 1st stages.

The arguments over hydrogen vs kerosene have been played out a hundred times- but for reaching escape velocity Hydrogen is the winner just as it was when the Saturn V was being designed. Physics do not change. The turbopumps required for a hydrogen engine are far more expensive than those for Kerosene. Which is why SpaceX uses Kerosene.

While SRB’s are roundly cursed they are the best choice for getting off the ground because they do not require an underwater rocket engine graveyard. With present Non-Destructive Inspection technology they are easier to certify for flight than a rocket engine. I have been to the facility that inspects the SRB casings and they go over every inch of the casings. The result has been 260 flawless firings of a rocket 80% more powerful than a Saturn V F-1. And unlike the F-1 the structure is reused. The 50 or so F-1 engines on the floor of the Atlantic multiplied many times is the alternative.

Musk has the Merlin and Dragon and the expertise to fabricate with friction stir welding. Great. An HLV can get those components BEO. But going into deep space without an HLV is not going to work.

The water on the moon changed everything. Someone should have told Obama that. A moon base to launch into deep space from is the next step.

What is left is the most powerful, evolved, heavy lift hardware on earth, bar none. Nothing else even comes close.

Nothing, really? I think I distinctly remember the Soviet Union building and flying a 100mt-class launcher over 30 years ago.

But it doesn’t really matter how powerful or evolved the hardware is if you can’t afford it. Take a lesson from the Soviets.

And many of the people here would gladly trade it for a hobby rocket. That is what is laughable.

What’s laughable is people calling a vehicle a “hobby rocket” that has performed two flawless test flights and won multiple high-profile commercial launch contracts in the international market.

“The problem was they called an experimental vehicle an operational vehicle. A vehicle that should have been constantly upgraded but it was so freakin’ expensive to operate it ate all the seed corn for 30 years.”

Story Musgrave, who is the only astronaut to have flown on all five Shuttle orbiters, said in the latest issue of Time magazine that “The Shuttle has been massively difficult to operate. It’s very unsafe, very fragile. A butterfly bolted onto a bullet, you know.”

Maybe it’s like the situation with military people vs non-military people. Non-military people are usually the first ones in the room to advocate for war, whereas military people are advocating for ways to avoid war.

Bolden and Musgrave know the weaknesses of the Shuttle far better than any of us that have never flown on one, so I tend to believe them.

That the Bolden/Musgrave assessments are a surprise to so many is indicative of one of the worst legacies of the Shuttle program, which is that there was a huge lack of oversight and review of whether the Shuttle was meeting it’s goals and objectives, and if it should have continued to operate for so long.

It tends to confirm my axiom that “a funded program that is operating, even though not successfully so, tends to stay funded.”

Constellation would have followed the same path as Shuttle, and we would have spent over $100B doing hardly anything useful in space. The SLS is on the same path, which is why I expend so many keystrokes to get it killed.

If we don’t start learning from our mistakes, we’ll never make out into the solar system.

The orbiter was always the evil. The engines, solid rockets, stir welded ET, these have been upgraded as much as possible with the underfunding available.

What is left is the most powerful, evolved, heavy lift hardware on earth, bar none. Nothing else even comes close. And many of the people here would gladly trade it for a hobby rocket. That is what is laughable.

” Bolden is a good man, but his statement that flying the Shuttle was like playing Russian roulette was both wrong and insulting. After 30 years, the bugs are finally getting worked out.”

30 years? THIRTY YEARS? After 30 years they are FINALLY getting bugs worked out?

This is absolutely laughable. Name any product that has a 30 year bug line to finally get right and is still around. This is beyond silly. Products are generally in a constant state of innovation and upgrade. The problem was they called an experimental vehicle an operational vehicle. A vehicle that should have been constantly upgraded but it was so freakin’ expensive to operate it ate all the seed corn for 30 years.

You want a blue print on how not to do LEO? Read the shuttle history. It is not a resusable system, it is a servicable vehicle. A huge difference, especially the costs.

If the federal government would have actually honored the space act that gives NASA it’s mandates and allowed competition to the shuttle, it would have been retired 20 years ago. Competition would have given the American taxpayers some actual bang for the buck. But the pork train has been running with the pedal to the metal for decades and certain members of congress have never been about advances in space.

What was most puzzling about the last 2 1/2 years is not only how incompetently NASA has been run, but the vindictiveness with which the previous shuttle replacement program was canceled. It seems to me if you don’t know what to do, don’t do anything.

A little slight rewrite and the truth is exposed:

What was most puzzling about the last 2 1/2 decades is not only how incompetently NASA has been run, but the vindictiveness with which the previous shuttle replacement programs (NLS, HL-20, X-33, NASP, etc.) were canceled. It seems to me if you don’t know what to do, don’t do anything.