SpaceX has a niche, but is irrelevant to planning major space projects of scale for 21st century space exploration. It’s not a big player. Space X has not launched, orbited and returned anybody safely. Nobody. flown nobody. .

I have heard this kind of argument before in the 70s … Japanese cars will never be successful in the USA because they don’t have a lot of experience and they really aren’t that smart. Really? And how has that turned out? SpaceX has hired the best and brightest and it is just a matter of time before they surpass ULA. Everyone knows there is bloat over in ULA and the US taxpayer is the one getting screwed. Based on the fact that we have a massive debt crisis in the US, it’s gonna happen. Nobody is saying to use a vehicle that is faulty just give them a chance to prove themselves, that is all.

“It is, Spacex is scrambling”

Is this opinion, or fact? If fact, references please.

“It changes their whole conops, for both coasts.”

So are you saying they were unaware of this situation when they made plans for their Vandenberg launch site? Seems like it wouldn’t be too hard to add a rolling assembly structure (ala the Soyuz one at Kourou) over the rocket. It would change their operations some, but for military payloads it may just be the cost of doing business.

The equipment used by SpaceX is optimized *not* for payload performance uber alles, but for lower recurring operating costs consonant with safety and, later, reusability. It is notable that the people who speak of the lack of proven performance of Falcon 9 are the same people who ignore just that when speaking of SLS. They are the same people who cannot remember which new spacecraft has bulges on its sides for escape systems, and which do not.

They are the same people who conveniently forget that what is slowing *all* alternatives to a vehicle sourced and designed in Huntsville is *not* the companies. It is NASA’s demand that 5 times as many heads as designed a vehicle, many with local Alabama paychecks, be involved in grinding away through procedures for ammunition to be made into human-crewed vehicles. It is the demand, above all else for control sufficiently politicized that a Senator or Congressman need not fear he cannot point the flow of money to his “good friends”.

You might even begin to believe in a sort of “NASA/Congressional Complex”, that we were warned of in 1961.

It is, Spacex is scrambling. It changes their whole conops, for both coasts.

“What Spacex is selling is irrelevant, they have not proven the capability.”

Years ago you could have had justifiable reservations about what SpaceX was offering, but so far they have shown with real launches that they can do what they advertise. True they haven’t demonstrated their GEO delivery capability, but is it so hard to connect the dots with what they have done so far?

Using your logic, Congress shouldn’t authorize budgets for any SLS-specific payloads until the SLS has proven it’s reliability. I may think the SLS is over-priced and unneeded, but I have no doubt that it can meet the specs advertised. Are you advocating a zero-risk approach to allocating payloads to launch vehicles?

“Anyways, most DOD programs can’t use it”

Once Falcon Heavy comes online that excuse will go away, especially since the maximum price for the Falcon Heavy is far below the minimum price for a ULA alternative. Because of this ULA probably has less than 5 years to get their pricing lowered, since in 5 years SpaceX will have demonstrated enough launch history to merit being evaluated for significant DoD business.

“Also, DOD has stated that they only do vertical payload integration.”

If that was really a gating issue then it could be addressed either through the payload manufacturer or SpaceX adding vertical payload integration. I’m sure SpaceX is aware of the issue, so we’ll have to see how the DoD & SpaceX decide to address it.

Backwards is irrelevant.

What Spacex is selling is irrelevant, they have not proven the capability.

There are more than 18 DOD EELV missions coming up. Anyways, most DOD programs can’t use it,

Also, DOD has stated that they only do vertical payload integration.

This is a thread about DoD satellite launches. How does exploration and launching people have anything to do with this topic?

That doesn’t contradict anything I said. However, the mass is for the F9 Block 2, which is the only single stick version they are selling right now and would be the applicable vehicle over the next five years.

“SBIRS is heavier that 4500 kg”

http://www.losangeles.af.mil/library/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=5514

10,000 lb = 4540 kg. Do you have a better reference? They can’t be much more than that and fit on a 401.

“and GPS IIF is heavier.”

http://scpnt.stanford.edu/downloads/3.%20Parkinson_%20PNT-Symposium_The%20Future%20of%20Satellite%20Navigationv11.pdf

This reference gives it as 1672 Kg. I see multiple references at 1630 Kg.

“X-37B isn’t flying again.”

USAF has been discussing additional flights:

http://spaceflightnow.com/atlas/av026/110307otv3/

There are questions as to whether the budget will be there USAF is clearly interested.

“Most of the DOD upcoming launches are not 401′s and 4,2″

I see 9 upcoming Atlas V launches for DoD of which 5 are 401s

I see 9 upcoming Delta IV launches for DoD of which 5 are (4,2)s

Looking backwards, of the last 27 or so DoD EELV launches, 14 were 401s, 4Ms, or 4M+(4,2)

That looks like a majority to me and no where near none.

Griffin? Oh yeah, there’s a fella with a record of incredibly poor decisions you want to use to bolster your arguments. And as Cernan did say about commercial space- they don’t know what they don’t know yet. Bur it’s noce you’re proud of SpaceX finishing a new set of drawings. give the kiddies a gold star. Tick-tock, tick-tock.

“SpaceX is not a player with the big boys for planning 21st century space operations. ”

NASA, under both Griffin and Bolden, apparently didn’t get your memo.

SpaceX was chosen by the Griffin administration to provide “21st century space operations” cargo services for the ISS.

And more recently SpaceX was awarded one of four contracts to develop a crew transportation system (CCDev-2). SpaceX even announced today that it had successfully completed it’s 4th milestone on the program, which was the preliminary design review of their LAS. They are far ahead of everyone else.

CRS and CCDev are the biggest “21st century space operations” programs going today, so as Cernan would say, you don’t know what you don’t know.