Were you not cherry picking by using a link that made it seem everything is rosey for ALL itar launches? I mearly showed that everyone that launches with russia breezes though ITAR regs.

Almost the entire aerospace industry has been lobbying for ITAR reform, it it wasn’t an issue there wouldn’t so many calls for reforming it.

Bigelow decided not to do the Galaxy launch and module because of escalating costs and instead will use it as an inhouse test module. So costs WERE a factor.

I am not making numbers up. Prices have risen with the fed’s move on increasing the money supply. In some cases companies have absorbed it in other cases not. You have seen it in a lot of imports rise in price to match the moves and you saw it in the jump for domestic food costs. The zenti 2 was listed per your link at 45 million but that is a 2009 price and I have not been able to find a current price on that rocket, maybe because it is being retired and the new zenit 2m will be replacing it. Couldn’t find any prices for that either.

I also belive that once Bigelow is up and running that NASA will jump in and try and lock other countries out by leasing as much as possible. They made sure that the COTS contract allows for sending cargo to multiple locations, so they will have the logistics in place once bigelow opens for business. Just my opinion, but we will see how it plays out in the next few years and see if I was on the mark.

That link didn’t have anything about what hoops they had to jump through if any and what ITAR related to their system.

And no, it didn’t. Because it’s utterly irrelevant to the fact that Orbital and other American companies looking for launch services go ahead and do it anyway.

I would rather use Robert Bigelow for an example and he has expressed, more than once, how it was a real pain in the A$$ to launch his payloads from russia.

So not only are you cherry picking, but you resort to the gripes of a man who obviously didn’t find ITAR and shipping costs so nightmarish that he wouldn’t use Russian launchers for his payloads.

the zenit was 45 million per your article but that was older data, I would bet it is closer to the 50 now with the way the fed has inflated the dollar.

I’d advise you to stop making up numbers, but I’m amazed you’ve chosen ones that still cast Zenit with a better $/kg than Falcon 9.

If you had read the contract you would have seen this:

Apparently I have, since I’m calling BS on claim that SpaceX has a binding agreement for 12 flights and 20 tons by 2016 and you’ve just made the case.

I know you’re trying really hard to be a contracts expert, but why don’t you just look at what NASA says about this:

I know you’re trying really hard to pretend to be an engineer, but why don’t you do what you were told to do and show us where in those contracts NASA guarantees 12 flights.

Well those are some contracts, but not necessarily ALL of the relevant contracts.

These are all the relevant CRS contracts. Get to work, buddy.

“INDEFINITE QUANTITY (FAR 52.216-22) (OCT 1995)
(h) This is an indefinite-quantity contract for the supplies or services specified and effective for the period stated in Clause I.A.2. The quantities of supplies and services specified in the Schedule are estimates only and are not purchased by this contract.

(j) Except for any limitations on quantities in Clause II.A.8, FAR 52.216-19 Order Limitations (Oct 1995) or in the Schedule, there is no limit on the number of orders that may be issued. The Government may issue orders requiring delivery to multiple destinations or performance at multiple locations.”

The 12 launches is only an estimate NASA can demand more or less. The contract has a 25 million dollar milestone fund that NASA pays out for current milestones on any of the COTS launches not counting the demos. So if SpaceX is welding up the tank for the first delivery launch they are getting paid already for parts of those future launches, up to 50% of the cost of each launch can be paid out before the actual launch.

Wasn’t for Orbital.”

That link didn’t have anything about what hoops they had to jump through if any and what ITAR related to their system.

I would rather use Robert Bigelow for an example and he has expressed, more than once, how it was a real pain in the A$$ to launch his payloads from russia. He had a lot of additional expenses to the point he was close to not launching from there. Those are all costs SpaceX would not incur by launching on their own rocket.

the zenit was 45 million per your article but that was older data, I would bet it is closer to the 50 now with the way the fed has inflated the dollar. SpaceX was going to be at a 15 – 20% gross margin or about 37- 40 million for the basic F9, that was from Musk a few years ago, do not know if those are still his gross margins. In house ingration versus having a foreign country doing it would also be cheaper.

“Show me where any of these requires NASA to guarantee SpaceX or OSC 12 flights.”

I know you’re trying really hard to be a contracts expert, but why don’t you just look at what NASA says about this:

NASA Awards Space Station Commercial Resupply Services Contracts

“Pardon, here are the contracts:”

Well those are some contracts, but not necessarily ALL of the relevant contracts. The information you can’t find may be on the contracts you don’t see. You apparently need to dig deeper to find the documents that NASA references in their press release, although since finding that information disproves your point I wouldn’t imagine you’ll do it.

As always, what was the point you were supposed to be making? That the future could change? Wow, I’ll alert the press…

Pardon, here are the contracts:

OSC.
SpaceX

Space X and orbital have a contract with NASA until 2016 for 12 flights of Dragon delivering 20 tons of cargo.

Here are the contracts, as amended, binding OSC and SpaceX. Show me where any of these requires NASA to guarantee SpaceX or OSC 12 flights.