Besides the silliness of labeling normal, and even abnormally large, rockets as “tiny”, a very good sign that SLS has jumped the shark is that now its supporters too are invoking the visions of the UFO hunter as the “market” for their rocket. The amazing thing is that even with Bigelow they have to go to the most extremely impractical end of his daydreams to find their payload. The several versions Bigelow has designed for launch on normal rockets are apparently not, as Newt might say, sufficiently grandiose.

As a cargo carrier for 20 tonne payloads, the SLS core booster could probably put the basic Delta IV heavy out of business.
That’s the problem right there. Shuttle, at $1.4B a flight kept commercial grounded because what business can compete when the tax payer is picking up all the costs to subsidise a government launcher. A SLS that will cost $Bs per launch can only kill commercial heavy lift.
Atlas and Delta and Falcon all have paths to evolve into super heavy lift if there is any demand for that capacity. But does NASA ask commercial to develop that capacity?
No.
NASA insists on developing their own SLS ln the process squashing commercial space.
It’s no accident that the US has lost the bulk of commercial launch. Other countries subsidise launch on their rockets.
NASA for years ran their own private launch system (shuttle) depressing demand for US native LV’s, forcing up costs for native US LVs and costing the US market share in the commercial satellite market as a consequence.
Now they’re doing it again with SLS.

My phone doesn’t make responding easy, so apologies for seeming terse.

“Because of low demand, Delta IV heavy launches are somewhere around $400 million per launch. So that ain’t no bargain.”

And based on zero demand, SLS will be the most expensive rocket in history.

Let’s review reality here. Delta IV Heavy is made up of Delta IV CBC’s (seven CBC’s are launching this year), so there is a constant flow of Delta IV production to rely upon. ULA is also a government contractor, which means that it’s not an inexpensive entity compared to commercial companies, but no worse than any NASA contractor (which it is).

The SLS will be built, and likely operated, by government contractors, so no cost advantage there between the SLS and any rocket, including Delta IV Heavy. However what is really hilarious is your delusion that the SLS will only cost 20% more than a Delta IV Heavy ($500M vs $400M) despite the fact that the SLS needs $30B worth of development funds, and will weigh 3-6X more than Delta IV Heavy.

Let’s just look at what it takes to launch the SLS vs Delta IV Heavy. The SLS requires vertical integration in the largest building of it’s type in the world, and must use the largest crawler in the world to move to the largest launch tower in the world. Delta IV Heavy integrates horizontally, and is rolled out and lifted vertically – easy peazy. Everything is more expensive on the SLS – everything.

No one that has at least half a brain believes your fictitious numbers. Do you use a dartboard to make them up, or fairies whisper them in you ear…

“Elon can’t even routinely get his Falcon 9 into space.”

Odd statement from someone that idolizes a powerpoint rocket. Falcon 9 has launched two times, and is waiting for final payload approval to launch yet again. Oh, and they plan to move two more to the launch pad this year.

How many Ares or SLS rockets have launched?

I’ll take reality over fantasy any day…

“http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=OqsHK2vxyzo
right at the end of this clip Bigelow VP Jay Ingham mentions a “slightly cut down 1150 Olympus could fit on a modified Delta IV Heavy 70t with 6 or 7 m fairing”.
Then there’s this ISDC keynote from 2011:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uc93LWus-7k&feature=relatedcft
about 15:15 min in looking at a configuration of a BA 2100 and 2 BA 330s Robert Bigelow says “This would be launchable on a 70 metric ton super heavy. George Sowers of ULA says they could modify a Delta IV into that launch capability.”
The bottom line is that while the BA 2100 is something Bigelow may consider some time in the future it has not been dreamed up without reguard to what commercial LV’s might be available to launch it. Fantasy NASA rockets are not needed.”

Thanks a lot for the very interesting links to the Bigelow program!

Once the SLS is fully operational, Bigelow Aerospace won’t have to dream about deploying the largest Olympus space stations into orbit.

The only Delta Super Heavy concepts that I’m aware of require an 8 meter core boosters plus a new upper stage booster:

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CDwQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.nasaspaceflight.com%2Findex.php%3Faction%3Ddlattach%3Btopic%3D16279.0%3Battach%3D125215&ei=7X1GT7DWCIiRiQLQ2ITbDQ&usg=AFQjCNG-eLJRRgzlh-wHbi9kKKq5nUhkKA

That should be enough to accommodate a payload fairing larger than 8 meters. But the SLS will have an 8.4 meter core booster. So Boeing would just be building another large diameter rocket?

The basic Delta IV heavy is already a pretty complex and very expensive launch vehicle, so I assume that any newer and more complex vehicle would be even more expensive.

As a cargo carrier for 20 tonne payloads, the SLS core booster could probably put the basic Delta IV heavy out of business.

The Delta IV heavy requires three RS-68 engines, three core boosters, and a LOX/LH2 upper stage.

An SLS derived cargo vehicle capable of launching 20 tonnes into orbit would require: four RS-68 engines– but only one core booster– with the Orion Service Module serving as the upper stage (only 8 or 9 tonnes of hypergolic fuel would be required to finally lift the payload into orbit)

Marcel F. Williams

Elon can’t even routinely get his Falcon 9 into space. So I wouldn’t worry about his Falcon Heavy:-) The man needs to stop bragging about the Moon and Mars and landing boosters vertically back on Earth– and start putting his birds in the air!!!

Marcel F. Williams

” What drove ISS costs was the shuttle the very technology you want to reuse. You could launch in sections of up to 25 tons with current technology right now. Bigloew on the other hand couldn’t build the BA Olympus right not if he wanted to. His factory is too small and there is no way to transport a 65ton payload from Nevada to Florida. ”

The Shuttle could only launch about 25 tonnes into orbit at about $450 per launch. The SLS will be able to launch between 70 to 100 tonnes into orbit right at the start at about $500 per launch. So the SLS will obviously be able to launch payloads into orbit dramatically cheaper than the Shuttle.

Because of low demand, Delta IV heavy launches are somewhere around $400 million per launch. So that ain’t no bargain.

Unless, NASA launches an Olympus using part of the current supply of RS-25 engines, the SLS will probably not be ready to launch the Olympus until 2020 at the earliest when the new RS-25E engines are finally being produced. So Bigelow Aerospace has about 8 years to get its Olympus factory ready! That’s lenty of time, IMO.

Marcel F. Williams

“I thought Bigelow Aerospace was a commerial firm? Why is it NASA’s and the federal government’s job to provide them a launch system? If that is such a great way to do things, the department of energy should have fleets of oil tankers so oil drillers can use them, I am sure they would love it if the government built SUPER DUPER extra large tankers. Of course we would definately want them built with no bid, cost plus contracts also …. We all know .. if any government Agency understands staying on budget and schedule when they are building super duper mega projects .. it’s NASA”

1. The SLS is primarily a Moon rocket. I know President Obama doesn’t want a Moon rocket but the Congress does.

2. The fact that the SLS can do other things like launch large cheap space stations is a good thing for NASA which will need a replacement for the hyper expensive SLS in 2020 and for Bigelow which will get some early business and the NASA stamp of approval for its space station.

3. If a private company like the USA (United Space Alliance) utilizes the SLS to launch the Olympus into orbit for private companies and for foreign governments then the recurring cost for the SLS will be reduced.

Marcel F. Williams