“They [Boeing] get more media coverage and visibility on NASA projects but the real money is in defense or airline contracts.”

Multi-$Billion contracts are nothing to sneeze about, and there are a lot of program managers within Boeing that would be pushing hard for SLS work. They are already spending money on building a pathfinder ET for the SLS, so they do see NASA work as more than just press releases and peanuts.

There is synergy in the strategy of pushing for down-selecting Commercial Crew while at the same time not pushing to support it. Boeing knows that any potential SLS work is politically unstable (i.e. it could die quickly like Constellation did), yet it’s still good money while the work lasts. For Commercial Crew, if it goes forward, then even though they have the most pedestrian crew vehicle, they are perceived as the “most mature” entry from an overall package standpoint. Oh, and they also make money on rocket launches for any other CCP winners whose founders aren’t named Elon.

I’m not saying it’s a good strategy that Boeing is pursuing, but it’s the same winning one that all the big government contractors play – which is why they are the big government contractors.

What (used to) really matters was the cost-plus aspect where they would make tons more money than in the initial bid…

FWIW.

A.B.S.O.L.U.T.E.L.Y.

And btw make defense contracts number 1 on your list…

Examples:

– http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KC-X
“The initial contract would be for 179 aircraft for $35 billion.”

– http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4ycmHO6Fg7Y&refer=home
“Lockheed Martin Corp., the world’s largest defense company, won a $3.9 billion NASA contract”

Boeing is of course the heavy hitter in the room but in reality it has not made much more progress then say “Dream Chaser” as. And Boeing has the deep pockets to make progress.

The only thing that seems a little challenging with Dream Chaser is the Flight by Wire…but its doable. the process should in my view continue to a little more technical maturity R”GO

Well said Oler.

Keep it coming E.P.

There is no credible logic in that statement.

Downselect will be Boeing and Spacex. DC has no hope.

Another way to look at this would be what happens if Congress continues to underfund the program, regardless how many are still competing:

SpaceX – I agree they will stay in the hunt, since they are already flying their vehicle in the cargo configuration, and their internal goal is to provide human transportation. Their work may slow, but they will continue.

Boeing – They have a lot of agreements (Bigelow, Space Adventures, etc.) that bolster their position if they can make it to flight, but none of those would be exclusive agreements (as far as I know). I think this boils down to the Boeing Board of Directors deciding if this is worth pursuing.

Sierra Nevada Corp. – Being privately-held has it’s advantages, but I think a lot boils down to a successful test program. If everything works the way they think it should, and they have great confidence in their design and approach, then I think they will make a go of it. It might require partnering to spread the financial risk, but a winged horizontal-landing vehicle in these post-Shuttle days is pretty hard to resist from a customer standpoint.

Blue Origin – Bezos, like Musk, has a personal plan, and he is even less restricted than Musk. I think he’ll keep pushing no matter what.

One of the calculations all of these companies will be making is how does more self-funding affect future prices? Less funding from Congress doesn’t mean less oversight and customer input from NASA – Congress still wants the best of both worlds, in that they want say over how companies offer the service, but they don’t want to pay for that right.

That creates lots of risk, and risk is money, so we’ll see who thinks they can mitigate their risk the most and still stay in the game.

First off, I want to state the obvious to those who have read my posts here at space politics. I’ve had a stroke, and now have trouble spelling and writing>>

I think I can speak for most everyone in wishing you a speedy and fruitful recovery…I would for myself just note that you’re comments are some of the most insightful and thoughtful here, no matter if I agree or not. I hope you contribute for a very very long time…my best Robert