“5000$/kg at Falcon9, 2000$ on F Heavy is not enough for common people to fly to orbit in foreseable future.”

This is a false way at looking at travel to space – most “common people” don’t fly around the country in corporate jets, yet there is a large and thriving market for corporate jets. And “common people” wouldn’t have anything to do in space, so why would they go? Space is a place of work, and will be for the foreseeable future, which means the entities paying for the tickets will be countries and companies.

To encourage more traffic to space the key is to be constantly lowering costs, because as you do that you gain additional use, and additional use encourages innovation and lower cost. It’s a virtuous cycle, although there are limits to how low travel to LEO can go based on the amount of energy it takes to get there and the complexity of the systems and vehicles.

On the other hand – where is the enourmous reduction in lauch cost per kg/pound that SpaceX proposed some time ago. 5000$/kg at Falcon9, 2000$ on F Heavy is not enough for common people to fly to orbit in foreseable future. 20M$/seat – can you afford it? How many millionaires they need to have a descent customer base for 1 private space station? And technology – what’s new in that field – same open cycle turbomachinery, same LOX-RP1 fuel, same Souz/Jemini like capsule, same Cape Canaveral high cost infrastructure. That’s just commercial optimization of old 60x technique. Some people thinks with reusability they can change cost. Maybe it will bring down cost twice.
But if someone manages to create Merlin-1C class engine for 100000$, that means without turbopumps, regen cooling(ablative), high salary personnel and land infrastracture – or call it really innovative – there will be no need for reusability at all. With 1-3M$ per 10t payload rocket you can throw it away everytime, and that’s big dumb booster concept. If local wielder company can produce it from thin steel, using LOX+LNG as fuel and fully robotic assembly/launch of cheap payload twice a day, launch company of 20 personnel can do the same without vertical integration of SpaceX on the Africa’s east coast. It’s easier to have 3 companies in partnership – rocket engine manufacturer, simple booster assembler, and launch/range provider (possibly integration of payload goes to payload user). Musk’s Mars ambitions and low cost space access don’t match perfectly. Do rocketry primitive, labor low/cheap, basic machinery and as stupid as possible. And payload can be manufactured the same way.

http://www.voanews.com/content/space-program-us-mars/1211331.html

But many veterans of NASA’s glory years, such as former Johnson Space Center Director Chris Kraft, are critics of the agency’s plan to send astronauts to Mars.

“That objective is ludicrous. It cannot be done. It cannot be done technically and, more importantly, it cannot be done financially,” Kraft said.

Kraft says the new Space Launch System proposed by NASA at a cost of around $5 billion is too expensive and that it would be better to utilize existing rocket systems for exploration beyond earth’s orbit. He also says an ambitious goal like sending humans to Mars requires a detailed plan with intermediate, preliminary steps, like establishing bases on the moon.

“We know how to go back to the moon; it is a reasonable program; it is a feasible program; it can be done with today’s capabilities.”

“Fuel for the assent stage of the lander. As envisioned now the descent stage will also be brought up for each mission plus that will have to be fueled. “
Depends on the size of your lander. Apollo massed 14MT.

This proposal: http://history.nasa.gov/DPT/Architectures/Moon%20-%20L1-Moon%20Lander%20Design%20JSC%20DPT%20Nov%2001.pdf masses about 30MT, is launched on Delta Heavy and uses SEP to get to the moon.

“Next we’ll need the supplies for 4 people for 6 months and finally get a crew of 4 out to the gateway. As envisioned now that will require one SLS launch.”

Well if you are willing to allow your people to get some fresh(or fresher foods, some unexpected replacement equipement, and new experiments) then both Cygnus and Dragon can hold enough to supply a crew of 3 for more than 3 months and are volume limited not mass limited. A version of each could be launched on FH and Delta Heavy. Or develop an SEP tug and perhaps save costs.

http://futureinspaceoperations.com/papers/HumanOps_Beyond_LEO_11_2010.pdf

“Most likely it would require 3 launches, one for fueled decent stage and accent fuel, one for supplies and the third for the crew.”

The depot requires no launches for supplies. FH and Delta could do the job directly.

Getting a crew out to l1/l2 does not need a depot either. Just an upper stage with enough kick(about 25mt) and a capsule that isn’t too heavy(Orion or Dragon). You could even use the ISS or other space station as a staging point. This might take up to 3 launches, but only one is critical. Meaning you could launch Orion unamanned months before the mission on Atlas . Launch crew on a ccdev craft to the ISS(sharing the cost of this launch with an ISS crew rotation) on a ccrew launch. Launch the upper stage with Delta Heavy or Falcon Heavy. A window to l1/l2 opens every ten days from the ISS.

The lander is the part that either needs a depot\propellant transfer or SEP.

Ray Bradbury has died.

RIP, Ray. Ad Astra.

I think we need to be more patient. I know it is long coming but still. Just like you, others thought and some are still thinking in terms of NASA mega projects. But this era ended a while ago. Heck I worked on CEV and thought it was the ultimate approach. Might have been under O’Keefe (even thoug I did not quite understand it then) but it soon changed. And I was part of this. So you need to give people time to realize it is no longer workable. AND worse they have to deal with our laughable Congress. Who do you trust????

You are trained as a scientist so by education you have to work out things that others cannot. Critical thinking is lacking in our country but MUST be of any scientist. And I mean scientist, not engineer. Not the same job. I have been both I know.

I still think that MrEarl will come, possibly late, to the side of reality. Unlike some.