“For the same reason you will likely see Elon develop a high energy upper stage. Not to push FH past 70t (which it will) but to giver extra margin on the second stage which can be used to defray the penalty of reusability on the 2nd stage.”

Nailed it. That is what I think confuses people, in that they see Falcon Heavy as meaning that there must be 53mt payloads coming soon, but really what it means is that SpaceX can implement less efficient reusable boosters for current sized payloads, thus lowering their prices even more.

If everyone were to go back and read what initially drove Musk to start SpaceX, it was the lack of affordable transport to space. Everything he is doing with SpaceX is focused on dramatically lowering the cost to access space, and by doing that “humanity” (including Musk) will be able to reach the Moon, Mars and beyond for far less money than it costs today.

Unfortunately that goes against the incentives Congress is used to, which is to have MORE money spent on their constituents, not less, so of course they want the most money possible spent on a NASA owned rocket – which explains the SLS…

Funny how people who wave the flag and beat their chests proclaiming American exceptionalism curse Musk for trying to do that. But then I guess hypocrisy will always be illogical.>>

Musk and SpaceX are American exceptionalism RGO

The power of pork is greater than clear thinking.”
 

This absolutely encapsulates my frustration with our so-called elected representatives. If their decision making is so corrupt over a non-mainstream issue like a damned rocket design (or a comprehensive approach to using the thing for exploration), we of the space advocacy subset must necessarily cringe at the logical extension of our experience as it relates to the grander picture of decisions that effect an entire country’s population.

It seems that we are truly screwed.

You ought not to be such a chauvinist. Obama’s margin of victory was the low information (Obama phone) voter>>

not true. his margin was in the middle class. The bulk of Romney’s vote was the dumb class..the unskewed polls people…aka Dean Chambers. RGO

RGO
There is movement a foot to service (first refuel, then later fix electronics) assets already in Space….. Demo missions near end of this decade. Impact will be sustaining of on orbit NASA, commercial, and DoD assets; Impact of that will be less need for LV’s as DoD, commercial, and NASA ‘birds’ will live longer on orbit lives>>

not really, and really this is old news.

DoD birds “age” well. I could walk through the average constellation age, but the satellites generally “last a long time”. This is true of commercial satellites.

What happens with DoD birds is that mostly they get old because the stuff on them gets dated. Technologies improve and new technologies come on line…the GPS constellation is an “open” version of this. The early birds were mostly position only but now the satellites have a “cornucopia” of capabilities on them, and thats not to mention the improved GPS “signals”.

The Phoenix etc programs are interesting but they dont negate the need for launch vehicles…and as the cost of the vehicles go down the users will go up.

Right now one of the big pushes inside DoD is to try and replace the “drones” with satellites at least in terms of comm and picture capability.

I honestly dont see a role for NASA in doing anything in human spaceflight (other then maintaining ISS) but I will bet you money that 10 years from now the DoD and other folks are launching more not less. RGO