Comments on: Satellite export control final rule due out by early summer

By: common sense

common sense — Fri, 07 Feb 2014 16:58:26 +0000

Yes I am (was actually) aware of people within ESA who are/were supporting manned spaceflight but unlike at NASA they are a minority. Europe has never seen HSF as a priority of any kind, except for some political purposes – USSR/Russia.

Soyuz has the historical advantage and ties between Russia and Europe (the important players in Europe anyway) are very strong. Europe does not have the same history as the US with Russia, especially in terms of HSF.

Overal, DreamChaser would have to show that it is a lot cheaper than Soyuz, not only as a vehicle but in terms of operating cost, launchpad, etc. And that is not clear considering the progress made by Soyuz in Guyana for example. And politically it would be a very strong blow in the face of Russia. I doubt Europe is ready for any of that.

On the other hand, occasionally buying flights/seats? Maybe just like with Shuttle. But that is all, I think. Not to mention they may be spending their cash on the Orion SM. Not sure that it will play well for HSF in Europeâ€¦

By: Malmesbury

Malmesbury — Fri, 07 Feb 2014 08:25:47 +0000

All true.

The interest from ESA doesn’t come from ex-Hermes project people – it comes from those who want a manned system.

Soyuz is an obvious option, but it comes with extra political entanglements. Yes, I know, they are entangled in that to a certain extent – unmanned vs manned spaceflight though…..

Dream Chaser might well be cheaper.

By: common sense

common sense — Fri, 07 Feb 2014 00:25:36 +0000

I believe there will be enormous competition with Soyuz. Europe has a historical connection first with the Soviet Union and then Russia.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/kourou_els.html

Upgrades for manned missions

Upgrade for manned missions is also possible, however it would require taking the launch pad out of service for a certain period of time. (218) During the meeting of the International Space Station partners on March 2, 2006, the head of the European Space Agency, ESA, denied the existence of any plans to launch manned missions on the Soyuz-ST from Kourou, however he added “never say never.”

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/soyuz/vs03/121011rollout/
http://www.arianespace.com/spaceport-soyuz/overview.asp

As for Hermes I would be surprised there are any if at all people from that program still working. Even then X-38 would be another debacle in that case.

http://www.esa.int/spaceinimages/Images/1998/01/X-38_European_contributions

By: Malmesbury

Malmesbury — Thu, 06 Feb 2014 22:01:16 +0000

They are facing serious problems with cost – if SpaceX carries on they will eat ESAs lunch.

Buying Dream Chaser would get them an insight into the new small and quick development concepts – the price could be the cost of a single satellite!

At that level of spending the national aspirations thing is less strong – that happens at the multiple billions level.

By: Donald F. Robertson

Donald F. Robertson — Thu, 06 Feb 2014 21:04:36 +0000

Malmesbury, I hope that you are correct on all counts! If we won’t fund three vehicles, let the Europeans fund one of them. (That said, I’m a little dubious that Europe will be willing or able to set aside national asperations to build the vehicle themselves enough to buy from the Americans.)

— Donald

By: Malmesbury

Malmesbury — Thu, 06 Feb 2014 08:46:01 +0000

SNC’s ambitions for Dream Chaser may make this very relevant – quite quickly at that. There is a believable story floating about that the flight SNC & Boeing are paying for is a demo for the benefit of ESA.

Despite the Hermes debacle there is a strong (minority) group within ESA that wants their own manned launch capability. The problem they are having is that Dream Chaser seems too good to be true – Hermes without the zillion euro price tag. Hence the demo – which will become part of the internal ESA pitch.

If SNC can offer a fixed price on a working vehicle they have a very good chance of making a sale.