The original deal was that Orion would fly um manned before Commercial Crew. The Orion supporters are getting nervous and want Commercial Crew the other side of the Presidential election. As they see it, too easy for an incoming President to chop their stuff if the US has manned spaceflight again

http://new.livestream.com/viewnow/exploremars/videos/48942168

Her slide 6 (1:43 in the video) is a marvelous text version of this “vision” graphic entitled “Fundamental Functions/Capabilities Needed”. ISS at left. Cis-lunar at center left, Mars at right, and in between the latter two is a segment entitled “Vast Gap/Leap in Needs and Capabilities from Lunar Vicinity to Interplanetary”. Yep, a VAST GAP/LEAP. It’s that VAST/GAP LEAP IN NEEDS AND CAPABILITIES that was left out of the “vision” graphic. At least AES takes this seriously, even if the visioneers evidently don’t. Whew.

“SpaceX wants to get their own astronauts to LEO by 2015. So why not fund them also to get NASA astronauts to the ISS by then?”

Great question Robert. And the real answer (i.e. fully funding Commercial Crew) is so apparently simple that there must be some major politics involved in the background to have affected the Commercial Crew program funding.

It will be interesting to see in the August timeframe, when the CCtCap contract winners are supposed announced, how that answer would change if re-asked.

I can’t help but think Bolden needs to make his case with a little blunt realism. He ought to have a reasonable list of technologies that have to be developed, along with cost and time budgets (“improved human waste recycling for water reclamation, at 1.5 billion dollars over twelve years”), a reasonable list of hardware (“14 heavy SLS boosters, at 1.2 billion dollars each, at 1.5 years per booster given current funding levels”), etc. Then produce the total cost and schedule (“450 billion dollars, at 2.25 billion dollars per year, with a first Mars landing in 2216. Or 70 years at 6.5 billion per year, if we totally eliminate planetary science funding. That’s what we can do given current funding.”)

I just don’t see things changing, for better or worse, till Congress gets a little “sticker shock.”

http://new.livestream.com/viewnow

It will probably be saved for later viewing on that site if you missed the earlier sessions.

I asked Bolden about offering a “contingency plan” to Congress for rapid U.S. space access to the ISS in case of a severe decline of Russian/U.S. relations. SpaceX wants to get their own astronauts to LEO by 2015. So why not fund them also to get NASA astronauts to the ISS by then?
Bolden responded SpaceX has not been chosen as the provider. Alright, then also fund Boeing as another provider to make that faster time frame, or perhaps 2016 for Boeing.

Bob Clark

Yep, if you notice, just like the Moon is shown in the center. But, we’re not going there.

I think that Martian surface telerobot control from orbit overhead is a fantastic opportunity that may be a considerably more affordable way to emplace human presence than an human landing mission. It would potentially offer real-time human awareness and understanding at many different martian surface sites. You land humans, and they go to ONE place. Nothing indirect about that strategy, unless the goal is flesh on Mars. It used to be that human awareness and understanding implied flesh. That’s no longer true. Zubrin has a flesh fetish, which is a somewhat archaic perspective on exploration.

Phobos and Deimos may have little to do with all that. There are advantages and disadvantages of doing telerobotics from the surface of one of those moons instead of from an orbiting habitat.

But there is a huge capability gap between ARM and getting to Mars orbit, whether or not you’re going to a rock there.

Speaking of flesh fetish, I think the prospect of Mars as a site for species insurance is pretty simplistic. Species preservation will require the transplantation of tens of thousands of genomes in order to avoid genetic divergence. A mom & pop outpost won’t do it.

Again, this is just an example of how NASA human space flight is so bereft of rationale that human space flight advocates are fabricating human space flight charters for the agency.

If you notice, Phobos and Deimos are shown on the right.

The plan appears to be ARM to a Phobos/Deimos visit
as a preliminary to a landing attempt. All of the Zubrinistas can call it “Mars Indirectly”.

From my point of view, in his remarks Bolden brought up the “Lifeboat Mars” concept, which is damned little comfort to the other 7 billion people living on this planet.