IMO, the EML2 Option is much more likely to be adopted than the Lunar Option for several reasons.  Politically, Obama took the Moon off the table.  The Lunar Option would appear as though it had made a fundamental mistake in space policy since it is apparently reversing itself.  Also, it had previously stated that we couldn’t do the Moon because an (Altair) lunar lander would cost too much to build.  Building a lander would be a politically damaging admission that that wasn’t true after all.

Unfortunately, the EML2 Option may be politically and hence budgetarily “sustainable” but it is not “truly sustainable” in that it does nothing to reduce the cost for BLEO missions and hence would constrain NASA’s budget for decades not allowing important technology developments and also not allowing a virtuous cycle to develop by accessing lunar polar ice for cheap propellant within cis-lunar (and hence BLEO) space.

Hard before the bidding but easy in the second year.

I suspect it’s a bit more complicated than that. Congress would LOVE to see long term impact, and have their names be associated with what could be spun as the nation doing great things. But Congress just doesn’t see the route to that. Certainly not in human space flight, for which the value generated is largely symbolic. That being the case, oink, oink, oink is the rule.

What matters to the President is he gets to use NASA to his advantage, for the next 2.5 Years remaining in his administration. This translates to ‘avoid looking Bad by what NASA does’ as well. So, you won’t see any long term commitments that require monies now – it ain’t there; he’ll want NASA to reflect his thinking about technologies, commercial investments, inclusiveness, etc.

What matters to NASA; does not matter here wrt Congress and Administration.

NASA likes doing their missions, but in the background of that excitement, resignation and cynicism. NASA worker bees – not the celebrity leaders we see and hear in the press, whose job is to ‘fake it’ – the bees are fully aware that their SLS/Orion gravy train is busted, broken, has no real purpose, and will probably be cancelled – like all the other great ides for ‘next’ human space flight vehicle/endeavor .

All of this is too bad, as there are plenty of good ideas for NASA HSF and Science, that are dying on the vine of this leaderless Titanic.

Actually, that is where NASA admits that in this fiscal climate, it isn’t going to send humans to Mars for a LONG time. Doesn’t take a detailed roadmap to tell anyone a human trip to Mars is going to need landers, transfer vehicles and habitats. NASA could have applied for money so directed long ago. The details that Congress is looking for are completion cost and schedule, and those are going to look pretty frightful to them with what we know now.

In fact, we have plenty of “detailed roadmaps”. Mars DRA 5.0 is about as detailed a vision as Congress would ever be able to digest. Of course, that DRA didn’t make cost and schedule explicit, because cost and schedule depend on a lot of stuff that a real flexible path and a properly funded tech investment strategy would have provided. It is, admittedly, not quite a “formal plan”. But no, we’re gonna have SLS, so hurry up and get us some landers, transfer vehicles, and habs that we can put on it!

… also including a number of policy provisions, including a requirement for NASA to provide a detailed exploration roadmap for sending humans to Mars.

That is where NASA applies for money for landers, transfer vehicles and habitats.

KDP-C, containing schedule and costing data for SLS up to EM-1, is due by COB this coming Wednesday, three days from now. We’ll see if that happens in any non-obfuscatory way.