According to Braden (not Brayden), ULA never had standing to being with.

In the meantime, that’s one more supposed SpaceX shortcoming the Elon-haters out there are going to have to scratch off their lists. I’d recommend they take a little time out to resharpen their pencils. Their list-scratching chores are likely to take a major jump upward over the coming year or so.

There was a story in Space News yesterday about USAF possibly deferring launch of two WGS birds because of budget cuts. Looks like USAF needs affordable launch soonest.

If the block buy assumed 20 Atlas V’s, then the whole deal depends, existentially, on additional RD-180 shipments arriving this year and perhaps even next. ULA certainly doesn’t have enough engines on-hand now to fulfill the block buy should future expected shipments indeed be embargoed by Russia. This also makes it seem downright crazy to me that three Atlas V’s are currently scheduled to launch one GPS block 2 and two civilian payloads in the next 70 or so days. Assuming the future good faith of hostile Russians is a mug’s game IMNSHO.

As to the meeting with Amross and Energomash, I’m not surprised. Russians will always repeat whatever the last authorized line was – right up until they do a Lucy-with-the-football number on you. I’m guessing that, for maximum impact, a formal announcement of no more RD-180’s coming will probably be delayed until the last possible instant. It’s the way these people roll.

If I was USAF and NRO I’d be hoping SpaceX gets both 1st-stage reusability and Falcon Heavy sorted out ASAP; they’re going to need both quite soon.

Note that when GAO does these estimates, they don’t distinguish between “costs more because the price went up while the scope of the contract stayed the same” and “costs more because the scope of the contract increased.”

Spaceflight Now lists the WGS weight as 13,200 lb (6,000 kg).

“I believe a Falcon 9v1.1 can match the first [6,500 kg], but not the second [7,300 kg], of these performance numbers if it is launched as an expendable vehicle.”

The SpaceX website lists the Falcon 9 payload mass as 4,850 kg to GTO. I believe that is in reusable mode and that the payload mass in expendable mode is 5,300 kg. SES has ordered a Falcon 9 launch for more than that, but that launch is going to a sub-synchronous orbit in which the payload itself makes up the difference.

Note that SpaceX quotes capability to a GTO with a 1,800 m/s deficit from GEO. Most others quote a capability to a 1,500 m/s deficit from GEO. Just be aware of that when comparing payload capabilities.

“…then that mix of 36 cores would appear to consist of at least half Delta IV cores…”

The mix is 4 Delta IV Heavies, 4 Delta IV Mediums, and 20 Atlas Vs.

“assuming the Russians send no more RD-180 engines – which is looking likelier by the day.”

Maybe. First, the engine embargo only applies to military missions, not civilian and commercial misisons. Second, there is some dispute as to the definition of “military mission.” Air Force missions like those in the block buy would seem to apply, but Russia has in the past deemed “military mission” to mean only actual weapons. The Air Force doesn’t launch those on Atlas rockets. Finally, ULA has said it had a day-long meeting on 30 May with RD Amross and NPO Energomash without any word of a delivery disruption.

“The delayed missions are said to include several GPS birds…Perhaps the delayed GPS birds are the in-the-works Block 3 models?”

Five of the delayed missions are indeed GPS III missions. Another is a satellite that grew too heavy for a Falcon 9. I don’t know what the last one is.

http://www.latimes.com/business/aerospace/la-fi-spacex-air-force-launch-contracts-20140711-story.html

There are a few more requirements that must be met before they can actually launch payloads for the Air Force, but SpaceX says they will have those satisfied this year.

To show how important this is from a taxpayer standpoint, the article says:

“The Government Accountability Office said the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle program had increased by $28.1 billion to $64 billion over the last fiscal year.”

Hard to see how ULA can claim to be “saving” the taxpayer money when they’ve been raking in the cash for low these many years. That’s like saying “Yes I extorted $100 from you, but here’s a $5 Starbucks gift card to make you not feel so bad”…

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/sued-from-orbit-spacex-and-the-eelv-contract-025519/