It’s essentially impossible for government, or even corporate, bureaucracies to marshal these necessary qualities over time. The U.S. Apollo program had Von Braun as its visionary-in-chief. The early Soviet program had Korolev. I think a lot of the reason for the Soviet’s ultimate failure to either win the Moon race or even to place a close second was because Korolev died in 1966, whereas Von Braun lasted through to the end and beyond. Interesting to contemplate how things might have gone quite differently had Von Braun expired in 1966 and Korolev lived until 1977. In that case, afficianados of 60’s-era trivia might well be getting the real-life team of Neil and Buzz mixed up with the fictional team of Tod and Buzz and either one could be a $1,000 dollar answer on Jeopardy.

Any given bit of land can only produce so much food. Once eaten the creature has to go somewhere else for its next meal. When they grow up the children of the creature will need their own hunting grounds.

Humans like birds need a nesting area to bring up their young. Materials for the nest (house) also need finding.

The food source can be scouted out in advance and its location remembered. One advantage of big brains and maps.

“it’s a project for hundreds, maybe thousands, of years — and the first ones are very likely to fail. None of this reflects on Elon’s ambitions, skills, or achievements so far: it is simply a reflection of how hard colonization is, especially of an unremittingly hostile place like Mars, and the difficulty of getting and staying there and successfully living off the land.”

A couple assumptions are going to make it a whole lot easier than a top down government controled, pork laden settlement attempt and a commercial attempt.

A heavy lift that isn’t designed, developed, tested and built at totally insane prices.

A heavy lift launch vehicle that is reusable.

Speed of commercial firms in pushing technology and innovations in to current production streams.

Think about the Shuttle and ISS that was still using archaic computer processors 10 – 15 years old. Commercial interests would have been shoveling in new tech a lot faster.

Look how many iterations of the Merlin engine we have seen in the last decade ..

If SpaceX can pull off a reusable 200 ton launcher that can drop 150 TONS of cargo on mars multiple times per year. Colonization could happen at whirlwind speed not seen since NASA’s infancy.

As for Elon winning on Mars, I think he will because he is just audacious enough, but not more than enough. True genius, I think, is often a matter of consistent finesse. Elon seems to have that. There are only a handful of people now on Earth who might get Mars colonization “right.” Elon is definitely one of them and, hey, he’s also the only one who will have the money to do it in a few years.

Fun times ahead, DFR! Fun times ahead!

I fully agree. Although I consider myself agnostic leaning heavily toward atheism, I also admit that my advocacy for human spaceflight is, at bottom, essentially religious.

I am not the only one honest enough to admit this: I once quoted John Pike as saying, “You have this very small minority of people who have had this personal ‘revelation’ that [human] spaceflight is important and means something. They have to trick the other ninety-five percent of taxpayers into paying for their own private, religious obsession.” Does Pike share this ‘religion’? He laughed, and said, “Yes! My first conscious memory was when I was four years old and went out into the back yard and saw Sputnik-1.”

Elon plays the long game. I think he’s going to win.

I agree with the first phrase, but I doubt the second. In the sense of giving commercial space transportation a good push in the seat of the pants, he has already “won.” But successfully establishing colonies on Mars will be far harder than he thinks — it’s a project for hundreds, maybe thousands, of years — and the first ones are very likely to fail. None of this reflects on Elon’s ambitions, skills, or achievements so far: it is simply a reflection of how hard colonization is, especially of an unremittingly hostile place like Mars, and the difficulty of getting and staying there and successfully living off the land. The colonization of Iceland and Greenland are probably good models. Neither went well, but Iceland was the first post-Roman democracy and, today, remains the longest-surviving one. More relevantly, it now has a large and established population.

— Donald

SpaceX’s Martian Odyssey seems to involve both. There is no question that ideology is the impetus, but Elon expects Mars colonization to be profitable too. He has both a mission and a business plan. As Vladislaw notes, Elon has deliberately chosen to leave quite a bit of money on the table in the near term in order to retain freedom of action for the longer term. Elon plays the long game. I think he’s going to win.