With a redesigned 1st stage, however, Orbital-ATK could have an Antares Mk2 with all-domestic sourcing for major booster components and this could be submitted for EELV certification. The only question is how long their redesign process will take. I have no inside knowledge with which to formulate an opinion on this, but it seems unlikely to be doable before maybe late 2016. At that point, they could – especially if they work some reusability elements into a fresh design and improve the lift capacity of the vehicle – have something that could not only get them business after it is EELV certified, but something that might even be competitive for future CRS and CC business for either or both NASA and Bigelow. I outlined one possible such design in a previous post on another thread in this forum.

I think that the word both of you are looking for was coined long ago by Ron Paul (R,Texas): corporatism.

“My instinct is telling me that SpaceX is going to come out of this with one or more of the launches that ULA is fighting to keep. I don’t know enough about the processes and politics to predict the details in advance though.”

While manned Mars flight enthusiasts focus on SpaceX, they forget there is another launch service provider: Orbital/ATK.

My instinct tells me that Orbital/ATK will simply sit back and let SpaceX and their supporters raise a stink, and then when it comes down to business will quietly point out that they are the only suppliers of on demand launch.

As for “crony capitalism” that would be ULA, their purchased stooges in USAF and their purchased stooges in the U.S. Congress.

“Lesson learned. I receive enough media inquiries and there are others in the community to share my insight with.”

I thought you provided a nice analysis. I read it and decided I had nothing to add… so I didn’t.

And in general I assume that the majority of people that read this blog do not comment, so many times my comments are aimed at persuading the broader audience, and not just the person I’m responding to.

So if your goal is to persuade, and not just retort, then I wouldn’t stop posting here.

My $0.02

Again, I don’t know enough about your field to make a judgement either for or against your position. For all I know you could be right.

That would probably be a good thing. Thank you very much for providing your analysis on this. It’s a subject about which I know very little.

— Donald

Lesson learned. I receive enough media inquiries and there are others in the community to share my insight with. I’ll focus my attention there. As for those who think I am secretly on ULA’s payroll let me say that I wish they were a client; I’m sure their attorneys on retainer are paid well.

Makes you wonder who the customer is. You are just another cheerleader for crony capitalism.