You are correct, NASA’s budget can go down. Although the United States’ budgetary picture appears to be improving (and more than is visible on the surface, e.g., we no longer need to export much of our treasure importing oil), in today’s political environment with gridlock, Tea Party, ever-increasing entitlements that neither party is going to touch, ever-greater military entanglements, and no possibility of a significant increase in taxes, a big budget increase for NASA is not in the cards.

— Donald

One of my lessons from Apollo is that the NASA budget is not fixed, neither the manned nor the unmanned segment of it.

I think that no decision on SLS will be made before the next administration takes office, and further that US launch needs may be far different by then.

As I implied in another thread, I expect one result of the December flight test of Orion on a Delta-IV Heavy is to prove to the next Administration (of either party) that the SLS is not really needed even for Orion. Such an Orion / Delta-IV Heavy combination would probably be confined to LEO until a refulable upper stage is developed, but developing that and flying fuel to it would be far less expensive than continuing development and flight of the SLS. On the other hand, the Union of Southen Socialist Republicans are bound to fight reality as usual, so any outcome is far from assured.

— Donald

“I don’t think Boeing will see CST-100 as competing with Orion since the”

MPCV program will probably be canceled by the time the CST-100 starts flying.

> I would really like to know the real story on the X-33 if it is available anywhere. If not, perhaps those that know could put it online?

Yeah, me too. The X-33 -> VentureStar programs were just so screwed up, programatically, in highly obvious ways that were often noted at the time, usually in sci.space.X. Kinda like, gratuitously, SLS currently.

Somebody otta write a book.

I don’t think Boeing will see CST-100 as competing with Orion since the ISS support mission for Orion has been abandoned. Boeing is advertising heavily that they will put money into the Florida and KSC economy if selected. AFAIK although they are theoretically equal partners it is Lockheed, not Boeing, that holds the chairmanship of ULA. The merger led to increased costs, making both companies more profitable, but the bigger share went to Lockheed. I’m glad to hear there will be two full awards. All three vehicles have ideas worthy of further development.