I think they gave up way too much in the 2010 compromise, but I wouldn’t say they got almost nothing for their effort (politically they got a lot of hassle but I’m talking about substance). The future of ISS by 2015 was questionable, and now it’s supposed to run through some time in the 2020’s, and it’s being used more for remote sensing, space technology, science, various new commercial/private partnerships (like Nanoracks, various cubesats, BEAM, CASIS), etc. Commercial cargo was strengthened and now we might see some interesting cargo improvements with CRS2. Commercial crew was started. Some NASA areas (particularly in KSC) are finding commercial uses. While nothing like the originally intended big reform and budget boost, some space technology areas were restored and patched up here and there. While nothing like the originally intended revival of robotic precursors, they’re looking into cubesat robotic precursor missions and ISRU on Mars 2020.

In other words, the situation is bad now, but it probably would have been a whole lot worse without the FY2011 reform attempt.

“Moreover, terminating SLS calls into question ARM and the President’s 2025 NEO goal.”

I really don’t think the Administration cares about the 2025 NEO goal or ARM. The NEO goal was just an attempt to appease people complaining about “no HSF destination/schedule” while responding to the pre-Augustine Committee calls for various non-surface stepping stone destinations on the way to Mars orbit. ARM is just a variant of that when faced with the inability to do much of anything while SLS/Orion exist.

It’s probably futile for the Administration to attempt a big overhaul like they tried with FY2011, or to expect them to. However, they at least could (and should) attempt a partial reform. For example, they could leave SLS and SLS ground systems alone, figuring the constituents for those are too powerful, and just go after Orion with its mass, schedule, and cost problems. They were already able to extract the Orion SM from its constituents, so it can be done. They could try to replace Orion with cislunar space versions of commercial cargo and then crew competitions. This would likely leave funding left over for something for SLS to do (e.g.: Europa Clipper, commercial partnership hab/gateway/lunar lander to work with the cislunar commercial capsule). There would also likely be funding left over to sooth the Orion constituents (e.g.: more capabilities for Dream Chaser). This would also allow ESA to make a more useful contribution than the Orion SM.

Oh well…

With progress like this, who needs project delays?

Or unaware, out-of-touch PMs in self-denial?

Onwards to the next delay!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNkB2k9pCSQ