To emphasize, and reiterate what I pointed out in an earlier thread, one likely outcome of Weldon’s gambit is that the ISS will still have a crew of 6 in 2012, but it will be composed entirely of Russians, Europeans, Japanese, and maybe a Canadian.

This scenario could well happen in front of the entire world.

Such an outcome would be a “pure space policy” failure for the United States — perhaps the most embarrassing one ever, since the outcome is so predictable.

FWIW,

- Al

And to be brutally honest, the whole discussion about extending Shuttle operations is a fiscal fantasy. If NASA has to spend about $1 billion on Soyuzes (a couple Soyuzes a year at, say, $120 million per Soyuz, or $250 million per year for three years, 2012-2015) for crew rescue to keep the ISS inhabited through 2015, then NASA astronauts might as well ride up and down on those cheap Soyuzes, instead of spending $15-20 billion ($3-4 billion per year for 5 years) of taxpayer dollars to provide those same rides on the Shuttle through 2015. If Weldon thinks the next Administration or Congress is going to pony up that kind of cash for such a redundant and enormously expensive crew transport system — especially when the 2008 federal deficit may be approaching a trillion dollars thanks to all the mortgage and credit bailouts — he and his staff are way, way out of touch.

Instead of trying to affect things that are outside his control or the control of the House authorization subcommittee on which he sits — like Soyuz being on the critical path for ISS crew rescue or a $15-20 billion plus-up to NASA’s budget — Weldon should focus on those things where some Congressional attention could actually make a difference. Specifically, we now have an Ares I/Orion program that:

– Senior managers openly admit “does not close on mass and power”. See (add http://www.):

flightglobal.com/articles/2008/09/18/316046/constellations-challenges-mount-despite-nasa-approving-ares.html

– A key subcontractor refuses to work on. See (add http://):

blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_space_thewritestuff/2008/09/usa-stops-work.html

– And which can’t generate a documentable cost estimate. See (add http://www.):

spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=29239

Congressional inquiries, hearings, and independently commissioned studies could go a long way towards shining a bright light on Constellation’s myriad and crippling woes, putting pressue on or replacing management, and identifying viable alternatives.

The problem that Weldon and other congressional representatives of NASA’s human space flight centers can help fix is not whether Shuttle operations gets extended. It doesn’t solve the critical path for ISS habitation, and dollars to donuts, the nation won’t pay for it anyway unless NASA takes it out of hide — which probably means wiping out the existing Constellation budget and indefinitely postponing any Shuttle replacement.

The problem that Congressional attention can help fix is whether NASA has a viable path to a viable human space transport capability after Shuttle retirement. Currently, NASA does not have such a viable path — technically, contractually, and budgetarily. That’s where Congressional pressure can help.

FWIW…