The impending retirement of the space shuttle program—now no sooner than mid-2011 assuming STS-135 is added to the manifest—has been feared by local and state officials because of the thousands of layoffs that will result and the concomitant impact on the region’s economy. For example, state senator Mike Haridopolos, who represents the Space Coast and recently became president of the Florida Senate, worried last month that “20,000 jobs” would be lost (which would be on the very high end of estimates); Haridopolos, a Republican and potential 2012 US senate candidate, put the blame on current Senator Bill Nelson. Another state Republican, though, sees the end of the shuttle program in less dire terms.
“You can look at it as a problem or an opportunity. The opportunity is, look at all the talent that is now going to be freed up to be part of companies,” said Florida Gov.-elect Rick Scott, at the beginning of a week-long swing through the state to talk about jobs. “We’re going to put a lot of effort into talking to companies that make sense for that workforce to work there. We’re going to talk to people all around the world to relocate plants, open plants there, because we have a ready work force.”
Frank DiBello, president of Space Florida, is optimistic that several thousand shuttle jobs can be replaced within the next few years. DiBello estimates that 6,000 jobs will be lost when the shuttle program ends, but that 2,000 to 3,000 can be replaced with “the completion of deals that are under way”, he told Florida Today. He added that he met with Scott and “foresees no problems” working with the new governor on these issues.
Our fearless leader wrote:
The impending retirement of the space shuttle program—now no sooner than mid-2011 assuming STS-135 is added to the manifest—has been feared by local and state officials because of the thousands of layoffs that will result and the concomitant impact on the region’s economy.
These people have had nearly seven years to prepare for this day. It astounds me that they had all this time and did virtually nothing until the layoffs actually started.
For example, state senator Mike Haridopolos, who represents the Space Coast and recently became president of the Florida Senate, worried last month that “20,000 jobs†would be lost (which would be on the very high end of estimates); Haridopolos, a Republican and potential 2012 US senate candidate, put the blame on current Senator Bill Nelson.
Bill Nelson warned at the time of Bush’s proposal about the consequences.
I recently found in the C-SPAN video archive a recording of the January 28, 2004 Senate Science Committee hearing where NASA Administrator Sean O’Keefe appeared to discuss Bush’s proposal. Most of the members, from Nelson to chairman John McCain, were very critical and quickly pointed out the flaws we all know today.
The video link is:
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/SpaceIn
It’s well worth watching, especially McCain at the beginning and Nelson right after him.
Haridopolos should be asked what he did in the last seven years. He’s been in the news because he was charged with ethics violations for failing to file campaign finance and other documents many times over the years. He sure wasn’t busy doing anything about the space program.
It’s the oldest trick in the book — when you’re caught with your hand in the cookie jar, try to distract attention by pointing at someone else.
Missing from this story is the most important comment made by DiBello on the Congress in the Florida Today article; “If they hurt Florida, we’re going to make them pay.”
The Sunshine State has been positioning itself since before the ’08 election to use our Electoral College clout to advantage Human Spaceflight budgets. Now our clout grows even more with the addition of 2 more EC votes for the ’10 Presidential race. Florida is a “must have” for both parties. This isn’t partisan, its business. It applies to both the right and the left, in the primaries as well as in the general election.
Speak against the NASA budget and you, and those you endorse, will be made to answer for that. Not so much by us, but by those running against you who were not so foolish.
We in Florida have not always been that crafty or clever at exploiting our advantages, but we are getting better at it. How good are we? We’ll see in 22 months.
Dale Ketcham wrote:
Missing from this story is the most important comment made by DiBello on the Congress in the Florida Today article; “If they hurt Florida, we’re going to make them pay.â€
I saw that quote and dismissed it as puffery.
How are they going to “make them pay”? Brevard County is one of the most Republican counties in the state. Republicans run the show in the state capital. One of the two U.S. Senate seats is held by a Republican; we’ll see whether Bill Nelson runs for re-election in 2012.
In any case, no one outside of Brevard County cares about NASA jobs or space jobs in general. It’s a non-issue to people in Miami, in Tampa, in Jacksonville, etc.
The people here in Brevard County make a lot of noise about how important they think they are, but in the grand scheme of things they’re not. The rest of the U.S. likes to watch rockets go up but they don’t like to pay for it.
This is one big reason why nothing was done in the years after Bush cancelled Shuttle. The locals were in denial, believing their own rhetoric that government-funded human space flight would never go away. The Brevard County economy badly needs to diversify, and they’ve failed to do it until reality slapped them in the face.
The devil in this detail is the timing (if companies want to relocate to Florida to hire the local talent) as is often the case. By the time a company is located and convinced, and relocates – years have gone by and the aerospace talent will be long gone. Along with the school systems, etc. Here in Houston, we see the same thing. A talented friend of mine relocated to work on nuclear power plants. Florida (and Texas, and Alabama) have a lot of advantages but the new launch sites are at Wallops (where Orbital Sciences has a pad) and New Mexico. The talent outflow is well under way. The end of the Shuttle is indeed an opportunity – but not necessarily for the established space cities.
Dale Ketcham wrote @ December 7th, 2010 at 8:00 am
Missing from this story is the most important comment made by DiBello on the Congress in the Florida Today article; “If they hurt Florida, we’re going to make them pay.â€
I ignored it as sour grapes from someone who has got the entire years political debate wrong…
wasnt DiBello the one who claimed he and his group had delivered some massive amount of letters to TWW? Either they were ineffective or he lied.
Obama got, for reasons that have almost nothing to do with spaceflight almost NO votes of the folks who live and work in the space industry on the space coast, or even here in Houston.
And the reasons people vote for or against Obama is unlikely to change due to his space politics (I for example support his space policy enormously but view him as a President adrift with lack of leadership and political skills…)
What is more likely to happen is that as time goes by and the folks who are now griping about their technowelfare job going away disperse a new reality will take over; that of commercial spaceflight, and two or so years from now, no one will really care.
And Obama’s chances in 12 will hinge on far larger matters.
Robert G. Oler
Mr. Smith & Mr. Oler,
Because of our efforts in 08, Human Spaceflight was a campaign issue in the presidential race for the first time ever. Why? FL. Not AL, TX, or elsewhere.
Obama is not going to carry Brevard, doesn’t need to. But Obama received roughly 10K more votes here than did Kerry in 04. Clearly it was enough. How will this issue play in a GOP primary? Don’t know, but we can try.
You may not think this issue is important, but I can assure you the professionals on staff to anyone (Dem or Rep) seriously considering winning votes on the I-4 Corridor will, again, take this very seriously.
Our job is to use that influence wisely to the good of this community, and for the exploration and exploitation of space. Your help also would be appreciated.
In close election, Obama’s arrogance towards NASA could result in him losing the state of Florida and the general election. And it will be a close election in 2012 unless the Republicans decide to do something insane like nominate Sarah Palin.
Dale Ketcham wrote @ December 7th, 2010 at 11:51 am
Mr. Smith & Mr. Oler,
Because of our efforts in 08, Human Spaceflight was a campaign issue in the presidential race for the first time ever….
well you can flatter yourself and your group all you want to, but saying that space politics is a campaign issue in a district that oozes with space technowelfare is not a great feat.
The rest of the country and the political currents that are shaping our political times the entire notion is “space what?”
In the end space ‘advocates” who support the programs that continue the infrastructure of the last 50 years…ie government programs for the mere sake of government programs are playing as a political issue only in districts affected by that pork spending.
How Obama does in Space Coast districts wont really change his FL election chances. (and I say that as someone who has come to the conclusion that Obama is showing all the problems of Carter and Bush the first in terms of a second term)
Robert G. Oler
@Stephen C. Smith wrote @ December 7th, 2010 at 7:07 am
“These people have had nearly seven years to prepare for this day.”
Off topic but how many years did “they” have to prepare for a Katrina catastrophe in New Orleans? What do you expect of our “leaders”?
common sense wrote @ December 7th, 2010 at 12:36 pm
@Stephen C. Smith wrote @ December 7th, 2010 at 7:07 am
“These people have had nearly seven years to prepare for this day.â€
you replied.
Off topic but how many years did “they†have to prepare for a Katrina catastrophe in New Orleans? What do you expect of our “leaders�
…
two different problems on two different scales.
Both your points illustrate both a failure of government at various levels AND an individual failure (at least on some parts).
The folks who were/are government leaders in NOLA and in various districts where spending on space technowelfare is important should have done a better job in the time allotted…but in the end individual survivability is a function of individuals…and all the folks who are griping the hardest about being laid off of their government job are in no way better and in some ways worse then the folks who were trapped at the Superdome because they had made no plans for what could happen.
Indeed the argument can be made that anyone in the space business who is being laid off and has no real plans about how to survive is in worse shape from an individual prep level…because those jobs paid well and people should have used those resources to get ready for what they were told was going to happen.
We have really bad leadership in the country right now, in both parties…Obama in my view seems a nice guy who is just way over his head in the job that he is in, and the GOP leadership just seems oblivious to the realities of where mostly “their” policies and politics have taken the nation.
But that does not excuse individual lack of responsibility for ones own self.
Robert G. Oler
@ Robert G. Oler wrote @ December 7th, 2010 at 2:55 pm
Robert, you are addressing the “individual” behavior. And I am not arguing with it but rather with the behavior of the “leaders”. We elect one way or another leaders to actually, well, lead. People knew and had known for probably decades what would happen in NO if the levies went. They did absolutely nothing. And I am not even just blaming the GWB WH. No one did anything. They waited. A similar behavior is happening on the space program. One of the goal, not often talked about, of the VSE was to reduce cost and therefore the army of workers. Of course no one will advertise it. Had the job been done well enough most jobs loss could have been done by attrition since the workforce is pretty old, we’d just have to wait for retirement and the others would have transferred. Then again in order for this to happen you actually need a working plan and a follow up program not chaos. We all know how this went thanks to Constellation/ESAS and the “porkers”.
common sense wrote:
Off topic but how many years did “they†have to prepare for a Katrina catastrophe in New Orleans? What do you expect of our “leaders�
No relationship at all.
Point at any region of the country, and there’s a “Big One” lurking one day that no one can prevent. I lived in California for almost 53 years and was constantly reminded about the “Big One” earthquake that will hit some day. With Katrina, we could all see it coming but the Bush II administration was slow in its preparation. Something similar happened with Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and Bush I’s failure to quickly respond to that disaster here in Florida.
With Shuttle’s retirement, the Bush II administration was very clear it goes away after ISS is completed, with an ETA of 2010. Couldn’t be clearer.
In that Senate Science Committee hearing I posted, O’Keefe was asked about the thousands of jobs to be lost. He simply replied, “We’ll have to work out those challenges at that time.”
It was plain as day — and duly reported in Florida Today, the local paper. I went to the local library some months ago and went through the editions for the next month after O’Keefe’s announcement. Not a single letter from anyone complaining about the job loss.
On February 1, 2004, the paper ran an opinion column by former NASA historian Dr. Alex Roland. He wrote:
The problem, of course, is that [Bush’s] successor will inherit a gutted agency, with the failed detritus of the shuttle and space station visions still limping toward some unspecified denouement, and public expectations of mission impossible on the moon and Mars barely begun.
The space program, in short, will be in a shambles.
That will be the legacy of this cynical, political hoax.
Roland had it exactly right.
So like I said, it was all quite plain this was going to happen. And they had the date it was going to happen. But nothing was done until it was too late.
Dale Ketcham wrote:
Because of our efforts in 08, Human Spaceflight was a campaign issue in the presidential race for the first time ever. Why? FL. Not AL, TX, or elsewhere.
I seriously doubt many political scientists would agree with that sentiment.
@ Stephen C. Smith wrote @ December 7th, 2010 at 3:56 pm
“Point at any region of the country, and there’s a “Big One†lurking one day that no one can prevent.”
Of course but it does not apply to Katrina. It was preventable and people knew they had to “reinforce” the levies. There is not much you could do about a scale 9 quake in LA yet people are building with that in mind. Katrina was “preventable”, the big One is not.
For the rest, we agree.
So like I said, it was all quite plain this was going to happen.
There was nothing intrinsic to the VSE that required it to happen. Mike Griffin fulfilled Roland’s prophecy for him. Roland is in general not much of a space historian.
Stephen C. Smith wrote:
“So like I said, it was all quite plain this was going to happen. And they had the date it was going to happen. But nothing was done until it was too late.”
UNLESS that was the plan from the beginning. To get NASA out of the launch business and force the issue on the job losses by a drastic measure taken out of NASA’s hands.
Vladislaw wrote:
UNLESS that was the plan from the beginning. To get NASA out of the launch business and force the issue on the job losses by a drastic measure taken out of NASA’s hands.
That’s giving the Bush administration credit for lots more smarts than they had.
The context was that the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) found the Shuttle had a fatal design law — the crew vehicle on the side, increasing the exposure to flame and falling debris. That wasn’t going away, so the recommendation was to retire Shuttle and go with the traditional crew vehicle atop a rocket, whether it was a capsule or orbital space plane.
Bush’s VSE was in response to the CAIB report, which also found a general lack of vision for the government space program. The “V” was for “Vision” so he could say he addressed that concern.
But O’Keefe’s presentation with the sand chart showed there wouldn’t be anywhere close to the money to pay for it.
The subsequent Aldridge Commission appointed by Bush issued a report in June 2004 which said that the VSE would be executed “in a series of incremental steps” based on available funding. To quote from Page 14:
The vision is a “go as you can pay†plan where we achieve periodic
technological advances and discoveries based on what we can afford annually.
The whole thing was basically to punt the ball down the field. The VSE timeline was meaningless. And it did nothing to address the pending job losses other than some vague implication that Constellation would magically keep everyone on the payroll.
@ Stephen C. Smith wrote @ December 7th, 2010 at 5:15 pm
“And it did nothing to address the pending job losses other than some vague implication that Constellation would magically keep everyone on the payroll.”
Indeed, again, it was part of the VSE to reduce the number of jobs, its intent, in part. It was not intended to keep every one on payroll, absolutely not. Constellation by Griffin resulted in hte current mess, timeline or not. He went all out with no plan B and he lost. So now every one is in trouble. Great.
But O’Keefe’s presentation with the sand chart showed there wouldn’t be anywhere close to the money to pay for it.
There was insufficient knowledge of the plans to know that at the time. It was Mike Griffin who chose an architecture guaranteed to break the bank.
@ Rand Simberg wrote @ December 7th, 2010 at 6:00 pm
Yup. With O’Keefe’s approach we’d probably be flying a CEV ontop an EELV but we’ll never know, will we now? At least O’Keefe understood the need to pay as you go. He and Steidle. I believe I read somewhere that Griffin cancelled the “spiral approach” and said he did not want to hear about it again or something like this. Really helped.
@Rand Simberg wrote @ December 7th, 2010 at 6:00 pm
That’s because Griffin looked in the mirror every morning and saw Von Braun in his reflection. The rest of us saw just another self-absorbed bureaucrat. O’Keefe wasn’t any better. A beancounter whose capacity for bureaucratic speak, especially at Congressional hearings, could put glaze on a donut. Neither personna radiated much vision.
“A beancounter whose capacity for bureaucratic speak, especially at Congressional hearings, could put glaze on a donut.” DCSCA, I don’t think I have ever agreed with you on anything you have ever posted on this forum….but THAT is a KEEPER.
The End of the Shuttle, after the 30 year-run, could have been a real opportunity for finally leaving LEO. But then Barack Obama destroyed everything! You check out the chronology: April 1981-April 2011, and we are STILL as fully Earth-bound as we ever were!! All the Obama-spacers do is knock-down about how if Constellation would’ve flown then the acheivements of the past would be repeated;….but then, why don’t they get mad at the thought of NASA repeating the exact same acheivements of the Space Shuttle, all over again?!?! If they can’t stand the thought of doing Sortie missions to the Moon, why do they have so much enthusiasm for LEO Sorties, then?? All we are going to get out of this madness called “commercial space” is another twenty years wasted, going around in circles!! I’d much rather see NASA get on with expanded Lunar surface operations by 2020, than to watch as we throw further years down the drain, building bigger & more durable aluminum castles in LEO, in the same time frame. Obama-space stinks!!
Chris Castro – feel free to believe that if it helps you sleep at night.
The reality was that Cosntellation would NEVER have allowed us to even GET to Earth orbit for a long time, and you can forget about the moon anytime soon. Betting on it taking us to the moon is a bit like betting that I could’ve made it to China when I was trying to dig there (when I was all of 5 years old)
You put commercial space with tech development, you get cheap access and the technology to enable sustainable BEO spaceflight. Which is more than can be said about Constellation, or Apollo.
Chris Castro wrote:
But then Barack Obama destroyed everything!…I’d much rather see NASA get on with expanded Lunar surface operations by 2020
Constellation wasn’t going to “get on” with manned lunar surface operations until 2035. That’s 2-0-3-5. Expanded lunar operations would never happen, because Constellation would have spent its entire budget flying two 4-man short-duration lunar sorties a year. There was no budget left over to develop a manned lunar rover or a lunar base of any kind.
To think at this point that NASA would be conducting manned lunar operations by 2020 under Constellation is pure fantasy.
Mike
@Ferris Valyn & Michael Kent;….What you all believe is HYPE: Constellation, with proper funding, mind you, WOULD HAVE got the ball rolling. The Sortie missions were only the beginning. Even the shortest Sortie would’ve outdone the longest Apollo surface duration—that of Apollo 17, forty years ago. Plus, just like Apollo underwent dramatic improvements to accomodate better operations, so too, would’ve the Orion-Altair missions. An unmanned, one-way variant of the L-SAM would’ve been introduced, and from it, the automated landings of base modules would’ve been made viable. Commercial
Commercial Space will NOT get us anywhere!!!!
Commercial Space will NOT get us anywhere!!!!
Ignorant shouting and LOTS of EXCLAMATION MARKS will NOT get us anywhere.
“Haridopolos, a Republican and potential 2012 US senate candidate, put the blame on current Senator Bill Nelson. ”
And Haridopolos is free to spread this absurd and self-serving lie. Brevard county, including most workers at KSC, is so thoroughly Republican that, having finally discovered they are about to lose their jobs, they blame it on Obama. The area is so politicized that there is no debate. Every legislator from Brevard is Republican (Kosmas and Nelson won with support from other areas, not Brevard). Try to tell anyone in Brevard that Bush made the decision to end the Shuttle program and you will be met with a blank stare, even though it was just a few years ago.
I would have written a letter to the paper but at the time anonymous online comments weren’t accepted and I was told a letter with my name on it criticizing the Bush policy would 1) adversely affect my job and 2) have absolutely no effect on Bush or Griffin’s decisions. I did get a chance to speak briefly to Mr. Griffin and it was quite clear he was not interested in other opinions than his own.