Space Politics
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Archive for November, 2005
November 30, 2005 at 6:52 am · Filed under Other
MAtthew Hoey, a research associate at the Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies, passed along a note that the slides from a presentation he gave on “United States Military Space Systems – The Road Ahead” last month are now online. Hoey argues that the “monopoly” held by the “Big 6″ defense contractors (Boeing, Lockheed, Northrop, General Dynamics, Raytheon, and Orbital) is now slipping as new, smaller companies (like SpaceDev, MicroSat Systems, and SpaceX) enter the market. His presentation touches on developments like Operationally Responsive Space and the interest in the US military in both protecting space assets and finding ways to deny space assets to opponents.
While this presentation is free of some of the fearmongering and hyperbole seen in some space weaponization presentations, Hoey does perhaps overstate some of his claims. While the military is open to working with smaller companies, the so-called “Big 6″ still get the vast majority of funding, particularly on missile defense projects. In another slide, he claims that Microcosm will be offering low-cost rapid-response launch in 24 months (emphasis in original); given that Microcosm lost out on the FALCON small launch vehicle downselect and is seeking alternative sources of funding, that timetable seems highly unlikely. He also overstates the importance of the ESPA ring, an adapter that allows EELV launches to carry several small satellites as secondary payloads; it appears that the ESPA ring will be used only sparingly (perhaps once every two years?) and there’s no guarantee it will become the adapter of choice for smallsat payloads.
November 30, 2005 at 6:34 am · Filed under Congress
The Dallas Morning News reports that Congressman Ralph Hall hopes to succeed Rep. Sherwood Boehlert as chairman of the House Science Committee. Boehlert will have to step down from the chairmanship of the committee after the 2006 elections because of term limits on committee chairs. Hall, a longtime Democrat who switched to the Republican Party in early 2004 as part of the fallout from the controversial Congressional redistricting in Texas, was allowed to retain his seniority in the House when he switched parties. Hall, though, has to both win reelection in 2006 (probably not a big worry: he got 68 percent of the vote in 2004) and hope the Republican Party retains control of the House. The 82-year-old Hall, the oldest member of the House, isn’t planning to retire any time soon: “I’m in good health and doing well. I think I can be re-elected.”
November 29, 2005 at 7:10 am · Filed under Uncategorized
KTVT-TV, a CBS affiliate in Dallas-Ft. Worth, turned its investigative lens on NASA in a report that aired Monday night. Reporter Tracy Rowlett used a number of GAO studies (such as its recent review of NASA’s aircraft fleet) and interviews with the head of Citizens Against Government Waste (which has previously been critical of NASA) to conclude that NASA is “wasting taxpayer dollars by the millions”.
Whenever I hear that NASA is wasting “millions”, I am reminded of a quote from the very first episode of The X Files that I saw, when Mulder, investigating strange events at NASA, says something to the effect, “Millions of dollars wasted: that’s all Congress needs to shut NASA down.” (When I heard this I started laughing and concluded this was actually a comedy show; it was years before I watched another episode. But I digress.) Millions have been wasted at NASA (and probably every other government agency of any size), yet the space agency lives on.
The CAGW’s Tom Schatz believes that Congress doesn’t want “to rein in an agency that’s very popular with voters”, adding that while Congress likes to hold hearings on such issues, they are less effective in forcing reform. An alternative, though, might be that when the agency’s and Congress’ focus is on a gap of up to $6 billon between NASA’s plans and its budget, concerns like inappropriate use of agency aircraft, while unfortunate and undesirable, are simply a much lower priority.
November 29, 2005 at 6:36 am · Filed under Other
As expected, the Canadian House of Commons passed a no-confidence motion on Monday, triggering a new election in January. Canadian Press reports that current Canadian PM Paul Martin, after making the official call for a new election Tuesday morning, is expected to immediately hit the campaign trail. One of Martin’s first stops will be in the Vaudreuil-Soulanges riding in western Quebec, where he will officially introduce CSA President and first Canadian astronaut Marc Garneau as the Liberal candidate for that seat. Bloc Quebecois won the seat in the last election in 2004, and does not seem to worry about Garneau’s star power. BQ official Michel Gauthier told the Montreal Gazette that the citizens of Vaudreuil-Soulanges “would probably prefer to have an MP ‘with both feet on the ground.’”
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November 29, 2005 at 6:23 am · Filed under Other
Monday’s edition of Aerospace Daily features an article with an ominous headline: “DOD Nears Decision On Fate Of SBIRS-High”. Is the missile early warning satellite program, which has faced its share of problems like many other Pentagon satellite efforts, facing a real threat of cancellation? Probably not. Its cost overruns have triggered a Nunn-McCurdy review where cancellation is one option that must be considered. The Pentagon is expected to make a decision on SBIRS-High by December 13, but the article notes it is more likely that the program will be descoped in some manner, in large part because SBIRS-High is too far along to scrap it and start over.
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November 28, 2005 at 7:13 am · Filed under Other
In this week’s issue of The Space Review, Taylor Dinerman examines the NPOESS weather satellite system, a program whose problems have been discussed here recently. Dinerman makes a good point in that much of NPOESS’ woes can be traced to the program’s technologies, which are far ahead of previous systems. As he puts it, “Why do so many US government technology development efforts aim at revolutionary improvements in capability, instead of settling for incremental progress?” It can explain not only the problems facing other large space programs, but also the concerns raised by Congress about future systems, like TSAT and Space Based Radar.
Meanwhile, this week’s issue of Aviation Week reports that the DOD is facing a “perfect storm” caused by the convergence of “operational, budgetary, manpower and transformation crises” that could threaten any number of procurement efforts. The article primarily focuses on aviation, not space, programs, but it’s clear that space is weighing on the minds of many planners at the Pentagon. In particular, the article notes how those working on the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) have seen their effort shifted to “a lightweight budget drill” seeking minor savings that end up being swamped by cost overruns. “All the people that take QDR seriously as a policy exercise spend 3-4 months scraping together a couple of hundred million dollars in savings from here and there in order to buy the new policy initiatives,” one source told the magazine. “Then, in comes a bill for a $1.3-billion fix on a satellite program.”
November 25, 2005 at 8:49 am · Filed under Other
In the US it’s not unheard of for former astronauts to become politicians, with John Glenn the best-known but not only example. A former Canadian astronaut appears set to follow in their footsteps: the Globe and Mail reports that Marc Garneau, the first Canadian in space and president of the Canadian Space Agency, is expected to be the Liberal Party candidate for a seat in the House of Commons. Garneau is expected to run in Vaudreuil-Soulanges, a Quebec riding west of Montreal on the Ontario border. The riding had previously been in Liberal hands until the last election in 2004, when Bloc Quebecois won the seat. While Garneau has not formally announced his candidacy, it will likely have to come soon: the CBC reports that a no-confidence vote in the House of Commons is scheduled for Monday. If it passes an election would take place in mid-January.
November 24, 2005 at 8:53 am · Filed under NASA
That’s what some people might be experiencing even before digging into the turkey and stuffing today, after reading a front-page article (above the fold) in today’s Washington Post about the budget problems facing NASA. (Thanks to the wonders of syndication, this article also appeared in a number of other newspapers today, and will likely be in still more in the days to come.) While much of the content of the story rests on several unnamed sources, the problem at the core of the article is common knowledge to most readers: there is not enough money in the projected NASA budgets over the next several years to both fly all 19 planned shuttle missions (18 to ISS and one to Hubble) and accelerate development of the CEV so it’s ready to enter service in 2012. Earlier this month NASA administrator Michael Griffin himself admitted to Congress that there is a $3-5 billion gap, while others pin the shortfall to be as much as $6 billion.
The article does do a good job outlining the four possible scenarios to deal with this problem:
- Shut down the shuttle program now (but deal with serious foreign policy repercussions that would make it unlikely Europe, Japan, or others would cooperate with NASA on the VSE);
- Fly all the shuttle missions and push the CEV introduction date back to 2014 (realizing that whatever date you pick now for starting CEV operations, it will slip; in addition, if there is no commercial ISS access by 2012 NASA would not be able to purchase Russian flight services under the recently-amended INA);
- Cut back the shuttle program to “serial processing” and fly only about 10 shuttle missions through 2010 (although that may not save much money, and with only that many flights “what kind of a space station do you get out of that?” one source told the Post);
- Spend the additional money needed to fly all the shuttle flights and accelerate CEV development.
The article indicated that the fourth option is “the one probably favored by Congress”, but that could be a hard sell if Congress gets into a belt-tightening mood next year.
In a related story, SpaceRef published a copy of a letter from the Coalition of Space Exploration to White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card asking that the administration’s request of $16.962 billion for NASA in the FY07 budget request, to be released early next year. That was the amount proposed by the administration itself for 2007 in its FY06 budget request and, according to one source, is indeed what the administration is planning to put in for NASA in the FY07 budget. However, that falls well short of the additional funding needed to do shuttle and CEV.
Update: There does appear to be a fifth option for the budget minded…
November 23, 2005 at 7:26 am · Filed under White House
It’s official: the President signed into law yesterday both HR 2862, the appropriations bill that includes NASA, and S.1713, the Iran Nonproliferation Amendments Act of 2005, which allows NASA to purchase ISS hardware and services from Russia.
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November 21, 2005 at 12:46 pm · Filed under NASA
Space News reports in its latest edition (in an article freely available at SPACE.com) that NASA has decided to deal with the cost overruns on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) program by delaying the mission rather than cutting it. JWST is now set for launch in 2013, two years later than previously planned. It has been clear for months that JWST was facing some serious problems, with a cost overrun reported this year on the order of $1 billion. Delaying the mission doesn’t get rid of the overrun, but stretches the costs out over a longer period, an option more palatable than removing instruments or downsizing the telescope itself, options the astronomical community strongly opposed. However, the delay will have an effect on other programs, including the already-delayed Space Interferometry Mission (SIM). Also with noting: the prime contractor for JWST is Northrop Grumman, which is also prime on NPOESS.
NASA also still has to work out launch arrangements for JWST; the agency hopes to save money by getting a “free” launch on an Ariane 5 in exchange for observing time on JWST. The article states that the State Department has yet to sign off on an agreement to allow NASA to formally negotiate with ESA. There had been earlier hints that Lockheed and/or Boeing had been trying to convince NASA and the administration to purchase a domestic launch, although that would be a tough sell given the program’s fiscal problems.
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