Some astronomers have speculated that the universe will end in a “big crunch” as it collapses back onto itself, a conclusion that has fallen out of favor as evidence grows that the expansion of the universe will continue to accelerate. However, NASA’s budget expansion will not accelerate, and as a result the agency’s astronomy programs are starting to experience their own version of the big crunch, Space News reports this week. Cost overruns on several programs, including JWST (as previously reported here), SIM, and other missions, along with the potential costs of a Hubble servicing mission, are putting the squeeze on NASA’s astronomy program, known simply as Universe. Neither JWST nor SIM are in danger of cancellation, but scientists, engineers, and project managers are faced with trying to at least reduce the size of the overruns.
How did these programs get into trouble? David Black, president of the Universities Space Research Association, speculates the agency’s shift to full-cost accounting may have played a role. “My observation is that few, if any, of the [NASA field] centers really got it right when they had to estimate their costs so that we are now seeing the cost of civil service manpower at some centers going through the roof.”
How did these programs get into trouble? Easy, just ask all the people involved with defining the program requirements and estimating their costs; allocate plenty of time for this task, there’s a horde of them.