South Africa isn’t considered a “space” nation, per se, but the country is in the process of developing a national space policy, one that may involve the private sector to a significant degree, according to an article in the South African magazine Engineering News. Responsibility for a national space policy, according to 1993 legislation, belongs to the country’s Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), not the Department of Science and Technology (DST). DTI, though, is working with DST and other offices on a proposed policy, with DTI maintaining responsibility for developing the policy but giving DST the responsibility for implementing it. The scope of a space program is uncertain: the nation’s astronomy efforts may or may not be included, and communications, including any proposals for a dedicated communications satellite system, would remain with a separate government department. Also, there’s the suggestion that a South African space program take the form of a public private partnership (PPP), to ensure benefits of any coordinated space efforts flow to South African companies. However, as one person put it, “how this would work, no one is currently sure – we’re still early in the process: the details will come in the months ahead.”
Stuff like this makes me hate ITAR the more and more. As these nations start looking to form their own space policy, the more likely hood they should get together and support companies attempting cheap access to space. (Yes i know I’m glossing over the risks, but thats not important to my point.)
As the number of nations build and look seriously to a space program, the more business case to develop CATS becomes more realistic. the near term return on investment becomes more likely. Except for one thing. ITAR. As it impedes both American companies using Foreign Launchers, and foreign enitities (companies and governments) from using private American launch systems.
Private american companies is currently a signfigant piece of the market. Not enough to tip the ROI potential to our favor. All the market has to be looked at. Between ITAR and our disasterous foreign policy, as perceived by the world, no one would consider to rely and the other piece.
To be sure once a reliable CATS system is in place people will work through the ITAR process. But (okay i can’t gloss over the risks now) ITAR magnifies the risks. Cause the risk of ITAR and the application to be denied before the system is devolped is too high for the real business world.
I know a few people here have direct experience with ITAR, I ask if you were an american investor and see the grown foriegn national space policies as potental market, how much would ITAR be truely a factor? And assume all you do is you want to get rich and don’t care how, CATS is just a potential way.
Matthew: I ask if you were an american investor and see the grown foriegn national space policies as potental market, how much would ITAR be truely a factor?
In my own small way, I can answer this. Rather than traveling to Reno, I invest what I call “my gambling money” in small space companies, in the hopes of ending up on the bottom floor of a future “British East India Company” of the Solar System. It is a harmless hobby, but I take it seriously.
In recent years, to the degree that it is possible, I invest my money overseas. Today, here and now, the United States is by far the largest space market, but that will not always be the case. American companies can address the American market — but Canadian and European companies can address the global market, incluiding the American market. Who would you invest in?
Unfortunately, I see no prospect of rational space-related trade policies in the United States any time soon — so my money (such as it is) will continue to be invested elsewhere. As a loyal American citizen, I truly wish that did not have to be the case. But as a loyal citizen of this world, humanity’s future in the Solar System comes first.
— Donald
1] Does anyone know where one may review the adminsitrative case law decisions relating to ITAR appealing alleged violations of the act or decisions of State Department regualtors?
To be sure once a reliable CATS system is in place people will work through the ITAR process.
No, you just make your CATS program ‘ITAR Free’.
Bad luck guys, but that’s the law of unintended consequences for you. Lobby the need for useless missile defence for two decades, and go figure, now the pollies are so scared of being attacked by missiles that they flip out and pass bad law after bad law to protect themselves from the percieved threat.
To be sure once a reliable CATS system is in place people will work through the ITAR process.
If Space Adventures and that Russian built system get flying before Virgin Galactic, ITAR may be irrelevant. (Rocketplane? I am pulling for them, big time. A Monster-Garaged Learjet is wicked cool, it’s just not on the critical path to RLV orbital flight).
Until ITAR is “worked through” where will the market come from to fund CATS development?
Until ITAR is “worked through” where will the market come from to fund CATS development?
All the countires developing a space policy. Doesn’t matter why they want to go. Just that they do.
I’m trying to figure out from people who has had direct experience with ITAR, how much of an impediment it truely is. And from that, how can we change the perceptions of VC to fund a non US company. For if a foriegn company develops CATS it would be easier for them to get US markets then a US company supplying the need of a non US government. Although won’t be much easier. At least from my limited understanding of ITAR.
As it is now in the near future with the specter of ITAR, only way CATS can be developed in the US is through Angels or the Government. But with a US developed CATS the only viable market is US
The market is developing with all these countries wanting to get into space. Doesn’t matter why they do, just that they do. In 10 to 20 years the desire to get up will be enough of the market without taking into the account of the marketshare in the US.
As a bit of a cross post, the business case is non us governments developing space policies. doesn’t matter why, just that what everyone has in common is they must pass through LEO.
Such a company would have Russia, invdividual nations of the ESA, Japan, South Africa, India, Canada as customers.
(I left out china because i really belive they want to do it on their own as a sense of national pride, until asteroid/lunar mining becomes viable)
Of course once this does occur ITAR will be altered so that a US company can offer services to non US odies. But a severe tarif will be put in place for the first company dealing with a US customer. At which point I’ll immigrate.
Matthew: As a bit of a cross post, the business case is non us governments developing space policies. doesn’t matter why, just that what everyone has in common is they must pass through LEO.
That’s a very good point and one I hadn’t thought of. I’ll add it to my list of near-term markets for commercial space.
— Donald
just that what everyone has in common is they must pass through LEO.
That’s a very good point and one I hadn’t thought of. I’ll add it to my list of near-term markets for commercial space.’
Reminds me of a comment Jim Benson made during an interview with Rockets Away last year (still archived, by the way. Gives a good look into the things Jim is probably playing with now that he’s no longer burdened with the day-to-day running of the company). He said (paraphrase):
“Heinlein said that, getting to LEO is getting halfway there (to anywhere else in the solar system)…..but the problem is that once anyone gets to LEO now, they are out of gas……’ He goes on to say that one of his long-term visions is to mine the water ice on NEO asteroids and comets, and have a system set up that transfers it (and other things, if worthwhile, I imagine) back to LEO to supply a fueling station. On a related tack, he mentioned (again, this is last year) that since he no one else was trying to research water-fuelled rockets on any sort of timescale that might bring anything to reality, he was thinking, at the very least, of bringing in some slaves (I think the exact word he used was ‘interns’, but, whatever…) and self-fund a small project to at least get work jump-started on the concept. Maybe he should go after some NIAC phase I and phase II funding as well. Don’t know if he can also tie that into the Agency via the Space Act Agreement with ARC; though I’m sure if there was a way, Pete would go for it, asteroid-nut that he is.
Dave