The Huntsville Times reassures its readers that they shouldn’t expect “mass layoffs in key Huntsville defense and space programs” because of the Democratic takeover of the House (and maybe the Senate), although NASA programs could come under new scrutiny. Huntsville-area Rep. Bud Cramer, a Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee subcommittee with oversight of NASA, will now have added influence, the article notes.
Rep. Dave Weldon (R-FL), though, is concerned that now that he and fellow Florida Republicans are no longer in the majority, they’ll be less able to support NASA and fend off potential attacks from Democratic leadership. “I was hoping to get more funding for NASA, to see if we could get the shuttle replacement online sooner than 2014,” he told Florida Today. “But in an environment where Nancy Pelosi is the speaker – and she has never been a particular proponent of the space program – I don’t know if that will be feasible.” (It’s not clear how actively Pelosi would oppose any effort to increase NASA funding or direct funds to Orion or other VSE elements.)
Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO), who is expected to become the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, says he will hold hearings on the subject of space weapons before making a decision whether to support or oppose such efforts. (subscription required) He said he would not “immediately block” projects in this area.
I just did a quick google search for “Nancy Pelosi NASA VSE” and found very little. A search for “NASA” on her Web site finds a number of mentions of NASA. They are pragmatic statements about the roles of people she has appointed to positions in the House (then) minority that will have oversight over NASA. They are neither particularly positive nor particularly negative. My expectation is that, in the absence of much interest herself, she will deal with what she does care about and ignore the human space program — which, after all, is pretty much what Mr. Bush has done in recent years.
— Donald
I just did a quick google search for “Nancy Pelosi NASA VSE” and found very little.
You need to use search terms other than “VSE”; that acronym did not come into common usage until some time after the initial announcement. Pelosi’s initial response was skeptical:
“As we go forward with any initiative, we have to examine our priorities,” she said. “We have serious challenges here on Earth.”
This is politician-speak for “I don’t oppose this program specifically, but I’ll raid it to fund programs I campaigned on. Nothing personal.” And Pelosi has a lot of programs she campaigned on, and space wasn’t one of them. If she looks out for NASA at all, it will be to protect science at JPL and aeronautics at Ames.
My prediction: Bush’s FY2008 budget proposes a modest (0-2%, or $0-$300 million) increase in NASA’s budget, same budget priorities as the FY2007 budget. Congress declares Bush’s budget DOA, starts writing their own. House appropriators approve a budget 3% below FY07 (3-5%, or $500-800 million, below Bush’s proposal) that restores about $1 billion to science and aeronautics and holds shuttle and ISS flat. The entire burden of the cuts ($1.5-1.8 billion) falls on Exploration. Senate appropriators approve a budget equal to FY07 and with $500 million transferred from Exploration to science and aeronautics. Conference splits the difference, end result being 1-2% overall cut, $750 million extra for science and aeronautics, shuttle and ISS flat, and Exploration taking a $1 billion cut. The conference bill passes and Bush signs it with no veto threat.
That’s actually about my midpoint prediction, with the worst case looking like the House budget and the best case looking like Bush’s budget.
No dispute about Ms. Pelosi’s position. (I did vote for her, but important as I consider spaceflight, I consider limiting the power of the far right, particularly the religious right, more important to our nation’s future.) I think you are overly pessimistic about the positions of the rest of her party, and overly optimistic about what people she agrees with can get done, but we will see.
— Donald
However, one addition to what I said above. The absolute mess that Mr. Bush has of the nation’s public finances makes any expensive effort on the part of NASA an increasingly difficult sale. As the Democrats try to put the nation’s public finances back in order (an unattractive job they usually seem to get stuck with), times are likely to get more difficult for most government projects, particularly those that the party in power sees as less important. Thus, any cuts in the VSE will be a team effort caused by both major parties.
— Donald
I think you are overly pessimistic about the positions of the rest of her party,
I made no statements about the positions of the rest of her party. I am predicting the outcome, not the details of the process.
and overly optimistic about what people she agrees with can get done, but we will see.
It is not a matter of what people she agrees with can get done. It is merely a matter of her maintaining at least the same level of discipline over those with no dog in the fight. During the last Congress, House Democrats voted with Pelosi over 80% of the time, even higher for freshmen. She is now more powerful and there are a lot more freshmen.
However, one addition to what I said above.
In other words, you’re backtracking and you don’t think my prediction is all that pessimistic now, do you?
Your comments were a virtual echo of Pelosi’s “We have serious challenges here on Earth.”
In other words, you’re backtracking
Yes, I suppose I am. It’s pretty hard not to argue that cleaning up the mess Mr. Bush has made in Iraq and, increasingly, in Afghanistan, and the debt he’s piled onto the economy, aren’t a higher immediate priority than the VSE. I do in fact make that argument, but it is a hard one to sell. . . .
— Donald
Oops, I could have phrased that better: I do in fact make the argument that the VSE should be one of our highest national priorities, but the results of Mr. Bush’s actions have made that idea a very hard sell.
— Donald