One of the less-obvious impacts of NASA’s plan to cancel Constellation is on the US military. NASA is the largest customer for solid rocket motors (SRMs), subsidizing to a considerable degree the costs needed to produce SRMs for a variety of missiles. However, with the shuttle scheduled for retirement at the end of this year, NASA’s plans to end development of the Ares 1 and 5 rockets means it will no longer be that anchor customer. Costs for the military will thus go up, but by how much?
Sen. David Vitter (R-LA), a critic of the new NASA plan, fears the military’s costs will double, as Defense News reports. However, at a hearing yesterday of the strategic forces subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Rear Admiral Stephen E. Johnson, director of strategic systems programs for the Navy, expects a much smaller increase: on the order of 10 to 20 percent. Vitter was skeptical of that claim, wondering why the loss of the biggest customer—NASA—wouldn’t cause a bigger increase. Johnson replied that NASA’s requirements are so different than what’s needed for even ballistic missiles that it may be possible to control costs by shutting down shuttle-specific production facilities. “It’s a very valid concern. There’s no doubt costs are going to go up,” Johnson said. “I don’t think they’ll double.”
So the real question is how much is a 20 percent increase in all DoD solid fuel costs? If is is more than maintaining the Shuttle or continuing Ares perhaps we shouldn’t cancel them.
John wrote @ March 18th, 2010 at 7:33 am
It will be less then 20 percent and far less then maintaining the SRB’s.
the death panels are meeting
Robert G. Oler
Why? If its important to have these missiles, from a national security standpoint, lets fund em out of the DOD budget, not the NASA budget
So the real question is how much is a 20 percent increase in all DoD solid fuel costs? If is is more than maintaining the Shuttle or continuing Ares perhaps we shouldn’t cancel them.
How could that possibly be?
What brilliant economics: have NASA spend billions of taxpayer dollars on solid rockets it doesn’t need so that the DoD can save a few tens of millions of taxpayer dollars on solid rockets it needs.
I’m so happy that the money they’re taking out of my paycheck is so wisely spent.
Does anyone seriously believe that the defense department, with a budget of more than 30 times NASA’s budget, has any concerns about the affordability of solid rocket motors? And if they are concerned, perhaps they should spend a little less in Iraq and Afganistan and a bit more on solid rocket motors. I suspect they waste more in rounding errors than NASA’s entire budget (I realize that is hyperbole but I think you get the point)!
Curtis Quick
I think I have figured out how this is going to go…I had breakfast with a classmate (Mark has met him, he was COS to a Texas Senator at the time)…who is now a lobbiest…and …
If Obama gets his health care bill (and its 52-48 …that he gets it).
I am told:
1. There is no real support outside the space districts for continuing to fly the shuttle, build a Shuttle derived LV…there is no real opposition to doing any of those things either…human spaceflight right now is seen as either a non issue or something that unless you are in a space district you just dont go back home and say “I saved the shuttle”.
2. There is almost no belief in any cost figure for a NASA project anymore particularly in human spaceflight, even among the space politicians. One of the things that is hurting the “JUPITER” “or DIRECT people is the handwaving they do saying “this wont be that expensive”…there is just no belief in those statements.
3. Number 1 and 2 coupled together have doomed a massive exploration project. As my friend told me “You want to go to the 5/10 dinner in Hearne and tell farmers who are hurting “I saved astronauts returning to the Moon”.
4. None of the companies EXCEPT ATK are lobbying really hard for Ares. Boeing and Lockmart want to sale their vehicles. Lockmart thinks that it can have Orion survive in some form as a crew vehicle to the station and transfer to any Geo work…
5. The concept of heavy lift is slowly but surely evolving (grin) into some evolution of existing launch vehicles.
6. Apparently the “Maneuvering” now that is going on is not “save the program” it is how to divide up what comes next….
One little neat sideshow (and why I dont use my friends name)…When the concept of Ares 1X was pushed for the first time, Ralph Hall R TX-4 was furious that it was not going to at least “put some damn thing in orbit”. He apparently had some fairly sharp words with the NASA administrator over the issue telling him that if the effort did not result in “some pictures from space”…it would be hard to save the program with a new President.
If accurate (and I trust my friend pretty well)…Hall’s words are entertaining.
My take is that Obama is going to more or less get his program…particularly if his health care bill passes. Nelson might get his one final shuttle flight…thats about it
Robert G. Oler
Curtis Quick wrote @ March 18th, 2010 at 12:27 pm
Does anyone seriously believe that the defense department, with a budget of more than 30 times NASA’s budget, has any concerns about the affordability of solid rocket motors? …
only the “graspers” the folks who are drowning trying to save Ares/SDHL or something other then the new program. They are grasping at any straw.
Robert G. Oler
If it is 20 percent of ever solid fuel rocket DoD buys that could be a lot of money.
“My take is that Obama is going to more or less get his program…particularly if his health care bill passes. Nelson might get his one final shuttle flight…thats about it”
Obama doesn’t give hoot about this. He just want to have something that can be spun to sound cool it the ignorant and doesn’t cost much. It is political genius (a lot better than his health plan in political terms) that the commerial aspect has a tempting appeal to the unsophisicated conservative. My guess is what ever the committees do will pass Congress.
Any progress in space beyond LEO is on hold for at least three years.
All the naysayers of Flexible Path should realize that it’s the best we’re going to do in getting humans out and beyond LEO. As Robert Oler pointed out, anything more (e.g., POR, Mars First) doesn’t have any legs in terms of political or public support. Given Newt Gingrich’s suprisingly enthusiastic endorsement of Obama’s space policy, the future course for NASA is set, and this is it, regardless of what happens in 2010, 2012 and beyond.
If it is 20 percent of ever solid fuel rocket DoD buys that could be a lot of money.
It can’t possibly be as much as Shuttle or Ares would cost. At least, if that twenty percent is really caused by the shut down of those programs. Think about it.
It is political genius (a lot better than his health plan in political terms) that the commerial aspect has a tempting appeal to the unsophisicated conservative.
It has even more to a sophisticated one.
If the DoD decides to spend money to preserve the ICBM industrial base, targeted activities to that end, particulary in paying the manufacturer to maintain the ability to rapidly scale up production of ammonium perchlorate, would be a substantially less expensive way to achieve that goal than paying for continued SRB production.
John wrote @ March 18th, 2010 at 1:00 pm
If it is 20 percent of ever solid fuel rocket DoD buys that could be a lot of money.
it is not that
“Obama doesn’t give hoot about this” I cannot respond to that yes or no….and I think that you saying it is just your viewpoint and that is it. (Unless you have some connections you are holding on dark background and thats OK too).
Absent the TARP and the Stim, which I think either Obama or McCain would have been stuck with (I would have hoped McCain did the stim differently but I doubt he would have)…there is a line of reasoning in Obama’s programs both foreign and domestic that if intentional is either a clear “give a hoot about” and that includes human spaceflight or it is just another example of a President who has a staff bent on a certain ideology and that is permeating all his programs.
I will say (sigh…grin) a nice thing about Bush. Before 9/11 I think he had a plan (mostly by Condi Rice and his first Treasury Sec) where he was trying to deal with the end of the cold war in foreign policy and NAFTA domestically. 9/11 just threw him completly off course on that.
Obama is trying to deal with the residue of post 9/11 blunders, NAFTA (still) and now a defict that is just going nuts.
I see similar characteristics in each of his programs for instance I can see elements of the health care bill in the space policy. One might (or might not) agree; in health care I prefer single payer (that is the type of health care I’ve had most of my life!) but Obama clearly does not.
As for leaving LEO…I dont see it happening for about a decade…under Obama’s plan. Under Constellation…thirty years.
Robert G. Oler
@Major Tom:
If you read this. See I have no problem with Admiral Johnson’s answer. I had with Payton’s answer. Johnson is obviously not playing Vitter’s game and Vitter is not happy. BUT Johnson is giving a balanced answer to someone who would just love to hear that this WH’s plan for NASA is damaging national security. National security is the last bastion for the Republicans, it seems, where they find refuge against the complacent Democrats. Their last card to play and they don’t even play it well.
FWIW as you would say…
@Robert Oler:
Well, well, well. I can see all the logic behind what you report your friend is saying. I think the chances for a SD-HLV are pertty tenuous. But they exist. I think DIRECT has a chance, slim, but a chance.
However the killers for them are these:
1. Budget figures: As you say.
2. Safety issues: Unproven statements about LAS operability (the astronauts won’t like it, period). I am still waiting for a document that Stephen promised, so…
3. Nobody cares for an HLV, save for a few people.
4. Worsest off the worsest (working my Anglish). Until recent posts, they were going against the commercials whereas this WH said following the Augustine committee they would go for the commercials. Only fools would say that Augustine is wrong like this. Sorry to be harsh but hey come on guys!
LMT will get nothing out of Orion…
Not as a commercial bidder unless deals were cut with the current COTS/CRS and CCDev partners… We shall see.
Oh well…
@John:
“It is political genius (a lot better than his health plan in political terms) that the commerial aspect has a tempting appeal to the unsophisicated conservative”
From someone who does not make any effort for reading the actual plan I find it a little extreme. Newt Gingrich is an unsophisticated conservative in your views? You just set a new standard I guess. And pretty much killed any credibility you might have had before, if any.
Slightly OT, but is the administration willing to throw Bolden and the new plans under the bus for health care?
Rand Simberg wrote @ March 18th, 2010 at 3:02 pm
only if it is true and in fact the leak just confirmed it is not true.
If the leak were accurate and say the votes are cast as indicated THEN the two folks came up for the appointment…
that is the end of the appointment in the confirmation process. One needs to recall who confirms Presidential appointments.
This gambit was tried with Admiral (now Congressman) Joe Sestak. That he was promised this or that job if he didnt run for the Senate in PA. See how that has played out.
anything is possible, but this is as likely as oh finding WMD in Iraq.
lol
Robert G. Oler
I would add this. The reason “Human Events” (a fairly right wing publication) is “leaking” this rumor is how the polls on health care break down.
As long as “the process” is the story the polls (which are rapidly becoming meaningless) show support for the health care bill wains.
When the health care bill alone is the issue…then support grows.
I suspect between now and the vote (Sunday?) there are going to be a lot of right wing sources flooding the airways with all the back room deals that supposdly are being made.
This has about as much validity as Jupiter’s cost numbers.
Robert G. Oler
“Slightly OT, but is the administration willing to throw Bolden and the new plans under the bus for health care?”
I sure don’t knoww but I sure would. Healthcare OR NASA? Without healthcare correctly (the real trick) cared of there will be no NASA to speak of in a few years. So…
But I also think that this is just rumors to stay polite…
Robert, is your typical lunacy about “right wingers” the only argument you have (i.e., you don’t have one)?
Rand Simberg wrote @ March 18th, 2010 at 3:25 pm
actually in this case “right wing” was descriptive.
it wasnt an argument.
an argument would be “the only folks who believe that Hillary clinton killed vince foster or BHO is born in Kenya are people whose right wing ideology demands it.”
Robert G. Oler
It was an argument against the veracity of the rumor. But it was a laughable one.
Brad wrote:
“So the real question is how much is a 20 percent increase in all DoD solid fuel costs? If is is more than maintaining the Shuttle or continuing Ares perhaps we shouldn’t cancel them.”
Careful with your brush and painting every solid rocket motor with the term “all”.
We are talking about ATK and LARGE solid rocket motors. If NASA cancels SRB’s the price of a hellfire fired from a predator drone is going to go up 20%? I believe the last contract for them totaled 14million, the motors were roughly 30 percent of the cost. So the military will be paying about 800k more for motors. … I can see why spending 40 billion more on Ares I and 50 billion to build Ares V at NASA so the military can save chump change is a real bargin then.
Why will ATK’s loss of a single contract for extremely large rocket motors, that are used nowhere else, effect any other rocket motor contractor that supplies the military?
Does anyone believe it’s beneath the Obama Administration to sell the Nasa Administrator’s title for a vote on HC? Given all the vote buying to date, it’s tough to give Obama the benefit of the doubt on this one.
Since a rumor of vote buying can’t be disproved easily, the damage to Gordon is done. No way he gets Bolden’s job as the Senate will filibuster.
As for Bolden, is he a lame duck or not? Does Obama really care about any plan for Nasa? Hurts Bolden. Nice hardball politics at work in the nation’s capitol.
Note that Gibbs continues to refuse to answer whether or not the White House tried to buy off Sestak to not run against Specter. So the rumor may or may not be true, but it’s perfectly believable.
richardb wrote @ March 18th, 2010 at 3:55 pm
Does anyone believe it’s beneath the Obama Administration to sell the Nasa Administrator’s title for a vote on HC? Given all the vote buying to date, it’s tough to give Obama the benefit of the doubt on this one. ..
yes I do. they are smarter then that politically…as I noted no pol could get confirmed by the Senate after having the rumor of such a deal out…
what is trying to be done is to tar Obama on the process of getting the bill.
What I find funny is all the anti Obama people who jump on this (I dont include RS in this he is I htink just passing on the stuff).
I bet a little searching will find, however that Mark Whittington is lapping in up…
Robert G. Oler
Rand Simberg wrote @ March 18th, 2010 at 4:01 pm
Note that Gibbs continues to refuse to answer whether or not the White House tried to buy off Sestak to not run against Specter. So the rumor may or may not be true, but it’s perfectly believable…
this is like speculation on massa…you were wrong there.
I have no doubt that TWW has used a lot of arm twisting on Joe..and that is a different thing then a vote…I think it was a nice ploy by Joe…
Robert G. Oler
they are smarter then that politically
[laughing]
this is like speculation on massa…you were wrong there.
We don’t know whether or not I was wrong there. The timing remains quite suspect.
“Slightly OT, but is the administration willing to throw Bolden and the new plans under the bus for health care?”
I don’t pretend to have insight into backroom, political horsetrading deals between the members of congress and the White House. But the Gordon for NASA Administrator schtick is a recycled rumor that’s almost a year old now:
spacepolitics.com/2009/04/07/more-fodder-for-the-nasa-administrator-rumor-mill/
Given that this rumor has already come around once and been discredited, I would tend to discount it now.
FWIW…
Given that this rumor has already come around once and been discredited, I would tend to discount it now.
If that’s the case, I would agree. But I wouldn’t necessarily discount it to zero. Actually, my biggest reason for skepticism would be that it doesn’t seem like exactly a plum position…
Massa was crazy like a fox. He crapped all over everyones theory of why he left office by acting, well crazy.
After HC, win or lose, I don’t see Obama having much clout with Congress. He’s spent alot of it already, plus seriously jeopardized his party at the polls. Then comes the November tsunami and his likely repudiation at the polls. I really don’t think he’ll spend any of his remaining political capitol on Nasa in 2010. He’ll go with the flow however Congress directs it. Shuttle extension or Constellation revival are just as likely as the Obama proposals at this point.
Well Gordon just changed his former “no” vote to a “yes.” So what was his price?
What is it about the President’s behavior would lead one to believe that he knows how to be politically smart. Mind, I think he more than capable of offering Bart Gordon NASA administrator; it is not all that important to him. Obama is also capable of reneging that promise. What is Gordon going to do, “He offered me a bribe and refused to pay up?”
In the end, this President will wind up stabbing everyone in the back.
“In the end, this President will wind up stabbing everyone in the back.”
Do you mean in the same way that GWB offered the VSE in grand fanfare and never lived up to his vision? That way? Pretty lame arguments will get you nowhere.
“So the real question is how much is a 20 percent increase in all DoD solid fuel costs? If is is more than maintaining the Shuttle or continuing Ares perhaps we shouldn’t cancel them.”
“If it is 20 percent of ever solid fuel rocket DoD buys that could be a lot of money.”
20 percent of the cost of refurbishing every U.S. nuclear missile is a small fraction (1-10%) of the costs of extending Shuttle one year or finishing Ares I/Orion development.
A typical ICBM or SLBM motor refurbishment contract is measured in the low hundreds of millions of dollars for dozens of missile motors.
Here’s one that refurbishes all three stages on 75 Minuteman IIIs for $225 million:
defenseindustrydaily.com/2252m-to-remanufacture-minuteman-iii-rocket-motors-02760/
There are 450 Minuteman IIIs in the U.S. ICBM arsenal, and it’s our only ICBM. So all the rocket motors for the entire U.S. ICBM arsenal could be refurbished for something in the neighborhood of $1.4 billion.
Similarly, there are 14 Ohio-class submarines carrying 24 Trident IIs each, or 336 Trident IIs total, and it’s our only SLBM. Assuming Minuteman III and Trident II motor refurbishment costs are comparable (like the Minuteman III, the Trident II has three solid motor stages), all the rocket motors for the entire U.S. SLBM arsenal could be refurbished for something in the neighborhood of $1 billion.
Combining the two figures gives a total of $2.4 billion (call it $3 billion) to refurbish all the solid-rocket motors for the entire U.S. nuclear missile arsenal. 20% of that would be $300 million.
The program manager for Space Shuttle has quoted a cost of $170-240 million per month to keep the Space Shuttle team together. That’s $2-3 billion per year. Spending $2-3 billion (with a “B”) for one lousy year of Shuttle extension to avoid a $300 million (with an “M”) cost to the U.S. taxpayer for increased nuclear missile motor costs would be boneheaded. That’s an order of magnitude difference in costs over savings.
The costs to finish Ares I/Orion range from over $30 billion (various NASA managers) to nearly $50 billion (GAO estimates). Spending $30-50 billion (with a “B”) to avoid a $300 million (with an “M”) cost to the U.S. taxpayer for increased nuclear missile motor costs would be boneheaded in the extreme. That’s two orders of magnitude difference in costs over savings.
Dumb, dumb, dumb…
richardb wrote @ March 18th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
Massa was crazy like a fox. He crapped all over everyones theory of why he left office by acting, well crazy…
no fox there Massa just had a good time plugging everyone as he went out the door…the hour on Glenn Becks’ face was well worth every minute. One nut with another.
“After HC, win or lose, I don’t see Obama having much clout with Congress.”
be careful. That analysis is not very sophisticated.
Congress was disliked in 2008 with Dem leadership but the party that got swamped was the GOP…why? Bush the last was simply disliked and well the people were very angry at him (as a group, Whittington was still giving hugs but…)…Today Congress is at about those levels…but a few things are different. Both the GOP and Dems are disliked in similar margins, oddly the health care fiasco is blamed on both parties…and well Obama is breaking even, riding just slightly below 50.
Lose Obama is in serious trouble. The bank got heavily used to get the HC bill this far…so to lose is to flounder. I dont think he will. had this been a month or two ago and the bill been where it was then, I would have said that the Dems might sail alone on this…but the bill just breaks even in the latest NBC poll (which Charlie Cook who is a smart numbers person says agrees with his polling)…
I’m impressed Obama came back to the HC debate because after Scott Brown I thought it was toast…and if he gets it, then he gets some wind in his legislative sails.
Obama and the Dems are not liked, but the only answer (so far) from the GOP is “we dont like any real change” (and that is their position all their health care proposals are inept)…if the only thing that they come up with is “elect us and we repeal health insurance” then thats not going to work. They are to in the pocket of big corporations to come up with much else.
andin any even for human spaceflight I dont see them picking up the ball of Bush the last exploration to the Moon, which is not very popular in the country…and running with that.
My guess is about like charlie cooks (grin)…we are headed for an orgy of budget deficit discussions. “Lowering the deficit” with health care (as an example) polls well…
never count chickens before they hatch…wait until August to figure out where the 2010’s are going.
Robert G. Oler
Mark R. Whittington wrote @ March 18th, 2010 at 5:44 pm
well there is nothing wrong with stabbing ones enemies (Political or otherwise) in the back…
so far I see nothing that says the WH political machine will not get its health care vote. that is a big victory.
Robert G. Oler
Fixing error my prior post:
“20% of that would be $600 million [not $300 million].”
FWIW…
Don’t forget, there is a story that Kosmas may sell her vote for some NASA concessions. Contrary to what Oler says, the supporters of Obamaspace may be the ones who get knifed in the back.
Robert, relying on NBC for polling is not very smart. Read more polls and you see consistent shift of independents to the GOP, by significant margins. Among those that are pissed off at both parties, they tend to want to vote GOP. See the recent Public Policy Poll showing these pissed off voters go GOP by 21 points. PPP is no friend of the GOP either.
There is a clear winning message for the GOP in the fall. HC budget horror stories, no jobs, towering deficits, anti-incumbent, corruption in the Democratic party. Every Democratic Congressman is vulnerable on one or more of those attacks. Where are similar vulnerabilities for GOP incumbents? The fact they opposed ObamaCare? So does most of America.
I think the number of angry people will be rather large in November. Don’t you? The incumbents will have Obama to thank for that. To survive they will have to run from Obama starting the second HC passes into law.
“What is it about the President’s behavior would lead one to believe that he knows how to be politically smart.”
This isn’t a cogent sentence. Think before you post.
“Mind, I think he more than capable of offering Bart Gordon NASA administrator; it is not all that important to him.”
It doesn’t matter whether the job is important to the President. It matters whether the job is important to Gordon. And Gordon turned down the post of NASA Administrator almost a year ago.
“In the end, this President will wind up stabbing everyone in the back.”
What’s with the weird, hatred-filled, conspiracy-laden posts? Take your meds before you post.
Ugh…
“Well Gordon just changed his former “no†vote to a “yes.†So what was his price?”
Per the article, probably the deficit reduction in the new Pelosi bill. Whether the deficit reduction becomes real or is a fig leaf is another question, but being able to say that the bill reduces the deficit makes it much easier for blue dogs to sign on.
FWIW…
“Well Gordon just changed his former “no†vote to a “yes.†So what was his price?â€
WH Press Secretary Gibbs has already squashed the Gordon NASA Administrator rumor.
http://nasawatch.com/archives/2010/03/todays-gratuito.html#comments
Gordon may have had a price (beyond deficit reduction) but NASA Administrator wasn’t it.
FWIW…
Per the article, probably the deficit reduction in the new Pelosi bill.
That seems unlikely, since the “deficit reduction” is trivial and laughable. There is some reporting that he got a Medicaid dispensation for Tennessee.
But I hope that we’ve at least put this idiocy about how we have to keep NASA/Constellation going to save the Air Force a few hundred million bucks has been put to bed.
Newt Gingrich is an unsophisticated conservative in your views?
Gingrich isn’t unsophisticated as a conservative. He is an expert on American histroy and government. He is very good at economics. But, he has no really expertise in space technology. Fall for this Obama plan really shows it. Obama waves “free market” and “private sector” in front of him and he bites. Don’t forget he fell of the global warming BS too.
John wrote @ March 18th, 2010 at 8:29 pm
…
Ouch.
John, I won’t debate the questionable content, but proof read before posting, OK?
Regardless, the image of Newt as a trout is amusing.
richardb wrote @ March 18th, 2010 at 6:51 pm
Robert, relying on NBC for polling is not very smart.
sure it is. the NBC Wall Street Journal poll is one of the best that there is.
But I read about six polls…even Rasmussen
Where “independents” go is useless until one puts a candidate choice into the mix. Generic Dem/Rep is useless.
“There is a clear winning message for the GOP in the fall.'” maybe maybe not. The GOP is viewed as the folks who got us where we are. The Dems are not viewed well right now…but Obama is still at the break even mark.
Are people angry? Yes but they are angry at both parties.
EVERY INCUMBENT is vunerable to a good challenger.
Wait until Aug to see where we are.
Robert G. Oler
Mark R. Whittington wrote @ March 18th, 2010 at 6:44 pm
Don’t forget, there is a story that Kosmas may sell her vote for some NASA concessions…
sure and there was a story that Massa was being forced out over health care, and you leaped off the pier on the Gordon story…there is a right wing nut story for every crazy conspiracy.
in the end I bet you Obama gets his space policy…and in the policy field you have been batting goose egg since VSE.
Robert G. Oler
I didn’t know it was NASAs job to subsidize one of the single most expensive parts of government. Frankly it should be the other way around.
The counter move
Dear Sen. David Vitter,
I want to bring to your attention the following:
At NASA we are using BrandX paperclips, you know, the simple rusty metal type. The DoD is using BrandX paperclips as well, in huge amounts, as you can imagine.
However, now the DoD wants to reform the paperwork and one of the pillars will be the introduction of rust free titanium staples of BrandZ, to keep the pages guaranteed rustfree and together.
Our accountmanager fears that the price of our BrandX paperclips will at least double when DoD will stop using them, since the DoD is the anchor customer.
Please, can you use your influence to stop DoD from doing this? The increase of money needed to finance our paperclips would seriously jeopardize our operations.
Yours sincerely,
Worried Clerk
MAJOR TOM: The costs to finish Ares I/Orion range from over $30 billion (various NASA managers) to nearly $50 billion (GAO estimates). Spending $30-50 billion (with a “Bâ€) to avoid a $(6)00 million (with an “Mâ€) cost to the U.S. taxpayer for increased nuclear missile motor costs would be boneheaded in the extreme. That’s two orders of magnitude difference in costs over savings.
Dumb, dumb, dumb…
Tom,
Thanks very much for the substantive analysis on the potential cost increase impacts of shutting down NASA’s purchase of large SRBs. I think your facts, and thus your argument, are compelling.
ATK probably would not like these facts to be shared widely.
I encourage others to share these facts.
FWIW,
– Al
“Gingrich isn’t unsophisticated as a conservative. He is an expert on American histroy and government. He is very good at economics. But, he has no really expertise in space technology. Fall for this Obama plan really shows it. Obama waves “free market†and “private sector†in front of him and he bites. Don’t forget he fell of the global warming BS too.”
According to you Global Warming is BS. I cannot know what your expertise is in that domain, GW that is, but if you’re not a climatologist and most of them say it is happening then what does that say about your opinion? Are you more or better informed than Newt Gingrich? Don’t you think he might get better information than you do? See if I listen to you you hold the truth for Space Exploration and Global Warming. And so far at least to me you have demonstrated expertise in neither. So?
Robert G,
Generic Dem/Rep does make a difference, it has foreshadowed shifts in party power for many years. Polls like this motivate challengers to incumbents and the flow of money to challengers. The shocking thing about these trends is how hated the GOP was in 2008, yet here we are Dems sinking down to the GOP levels. Now more than ever Independents will write the story in 2010 and they are loudly singing GOP/Tea Party music at the moment.
NBC/WSJ is one poll and we all know that is never enough to understand the sense of the country. But NBC has a credibility problem. The parent of NBC is GE and they got over 100 billion in bailout monies from the USG.
Money talks.
At any rate, many polls have trended down for Dems over the last 12 months and it seems all major polls are now showing disapproval for Obama and Dems. Trends require an inflection point to change direction.
What is likely to be an inflection point between now and November?
A major improvement in the new hiring across country. Not likely at all.
Cheaper HC for all? Laughable.
Cap and Tax? Sure just what the voters are demanding.
How about laying off 10’s of thousands of Nasa employees, contractors and suppliers?
This alone could accelerate Democratic Party disapprovals in the affected states. So I’ll go way out on a limb and suggest that on this issue Congressional Democrats will believe Obama is on a suicide mission.
Congress already has two programs of record, Shuttle and Constellation. They will fund them for 2011 to keep the employment picture from getting worse and Democratic prospects for re-election worse. Just as Congress has extended other POR’s such as C-17 and JSF alternate engine they will extend the POR’s Shuttle and Constellation. I initially thought Congress would go along with Obama on cancellation, no more, for the reason above.
Congress already has two programs of record, Shuttle and Constellation. They will fund them for 2011 to keep the employment picture from getting worse and Democratic prospects for re-election worse.
If so, that’s another lost year, and further billions wasted on a dead-end program.
richardb wrote @ March 20th, 2010 at 3:01 pm
well maybe but I doubt it
what you dont seem to grasp is that THE GOP IS STILL PRETTY MUCH DISLIKED.
MOST of the people blame the GOP and the current GOP leadership for the mess we are in. they are not clear as to where it is going right now…but there are signs that Obama and his “Plans” are gaining support…ie the break right now on the health care bill.
The GOP would, in my view be on the way to a pretty good sweep if it was not for the anchor of the far right and in particular the tea party people. The latter have started to cross the line into serious “nutty” and the far right really is percieved as having no answers.
Generic polls only are useful if there is a generic dislike of one side and a “like” of the other…and the other side has a unified message.
You are free to think what you want, but I kind of sense your bias since you lay into the NBC poll. The other half of that is THE WSJ which is owned by well go look it u p…and the poll is done for them by a group which is about the best in the business. It is the gold standard of professional polling.
I dont look at them exclusively, but to claim “its bought” as you did is pretty lame.
As for space…we will see. again I disagree. but a lot of it depends on Obama getting his health care…he does that. he is bullet proof in the Congress
he will get what he wants he will have put together a pretty solid working majority
Robert G. Oler
Robert G, ya didn’t read what I said did you? I said this ” The shocking thing about these trends is how hated the GOP was in 2008, yet here we are Dems sinking down to the GOP levels.”
Yes the GOP does suck. But the Dems have double downed on the GOP, haven’t they?
About that NBC poll, what if some entity that gets billions from the USG, some entity like GM, put out a poll claiming that most people think the bailout of GM was a good thing. Would you be skeptical of that poll? I would. The fact NBC received over 100 BILLION from the USG in the form of bailout funds to its parent forces me to be skeptical. Plus many other polls with excellent track records show the trends against Obama and the Dems. You seem comfortable with polls from companies bought and paid for by the USG. I’m not.
As for the Space angle, Obama will be a deeply wounded president either way this HC works out. If it fails, he looks like a fool. If it passes he looks like the bill. Full of dirty deals, expensive beyond imagination with the entire summer for the mess to be exposed. Congress then has to deal with other Obama initiatives such as Nasa. Killing jobs is a loser in Congress. Those folks will want to distance themselves from Obama and Nasa is a cheap way to start.
Rand, do you really believe Shuttle is a dead end program? It might be the only thing keeping the ISS in stable orbit a year from now. Things break on orbit.
As for Constellation, it could be a sink hole of funds. But so could SpaceX and others. SpaceX has established a record of over promising and being late. Like most aerospace primes over the past 2 or 3 decades.
Rober G, I’m curious why you think the Dems will be fine if the HC passes given the billions in payoffs for votes. Given the phony accounting to justify it such as excluding the Doc Fix and the states higher expenses for Medicad costs the feds are pushing down to them. Isn’t under estimating the costs one of the prime failures of Nasa? Yet the HC fiasco will be 2 or 3 orders of magnitude more costly than anything Nasa has pulled.
richardb wrote @ March 20th, 2010 at 9:40 pm
three points (and try and end on space)
First the NBC/WSJ poll is one of the best in the business. The fact of bailout money eetc doesnt have a thing to do with the validity of the poll…and what that poll is saying tracks almost all other polls.
Second. The GOP really hosed themselves in this debate…it is a product of the Fox News echo room. The folks who were already against the bill were “alarmed” at the process; they dont know history, they dont understand that this is the calling card of legislation in The Republic dating back to the 1st Congress…
Process means little once the bill passes. What the GOP should have argued (and it is a valid concern) is “how much it cost”. With this vote we will be well on the road to single payer and that is going to change the dynamics of taxation in The Republic (ie they are going up) …but the flip side is that these programs are extremely popular in all the countries that have them. The GOP used the same language against social security and medicare/caid and those are very popular programs now…the GOP would not even think of repealling them.
If they want to campaign in 10 on “repeal the bill” go ahead. They would have no chance to even if they owned the Senate/House (they wont have a override majority) AND the Dems with any smart campaigning can cruicify them (“You want to repeal the law that says ‘no preexisting conditions’?”)
The GOP has no plan for America to go into this century and reform its institutions…none all it has is a very loud (and large) minority of older white very angry voters that are turning off the “middle” of American politics and almost every minority block in site.
That includes human spaceflight. If (and I now think he will) Obama wins this, he is going to have a working majority in both houses of Congress who are attached to him at the hip…ie they need him to survive…and that will include the votes on the (nationally) trivial issues of human spaceflight.
Obama will hammer the “new economy” part of human spaceflight and the American people and the non pork space Congress will be fine with that.
Very shortly the “exploration” crowd is going to be old.
Robert G. Oler
As for Constellation, it could be a sink hole of funds. But so could SpaceX and others. SpaceX has established a record of over promising and being late. Like most aerospace primes over the past 2 or 3 decades.
Let’s see…
Ares/Orion have consumed almost ten billion bucks so far, and all they have to show for it is a test flight that cost about as much as all of SpaceX’ development costs to date (about five percent of that amount), and they have a vehicle on the pad, and a prototype capsule ready to laounch in a few weeks.
So what’s that again…?
If the DOD decides that solid rockets need refurbishing, why would they rely on NASA to bring the project in on budget and schedule (or even at all…since this isn’t really in their best interest?) NASA’s Project Managers have been left to free range for too long. The fact that we are even having a discussion about extending Shuttle in 2010 shows you how far off the range the Shuttle PM has wandered. With all of his contractors ready to start back up production, it makes one wonder what he has been spending the Shuttle retirement money on.
And requiring Constellation to develop a heavy lift vehicle that is capable of going beyond LEO, but constrained to using much of Shuttle existing technology, is kind of like taking a 1970s VW bus and trying to make a 2010 Escalade. NASA needs new technology, and it won’t be developed if it is stuck gluing together old Shuttle parts. Unfortunately, none of this will matter if the PMs continue to be held to a much lower set of standards than say your average NASA employee. Today’s NASA senior managers lack the essential leadership qualities that are required to successfully manage projects of this magnitude; most notable is the lack of integrity.
[…] Another question is the claim in the report that propulsion systems costs “could increase from 40 to 100 percent” because of Constellation’s cancellation. The HASC report cites unnamed “defense officials”, but back in March Rear Admiral Stephen E. Johnson, director of strategic systems programs for the Navy, told a Senate committee that he expected DOD costs to increase by only 10-20 percent. […]
“they have a vehicle on the pad, and a prototype capsule ready to laounch in a few weeks.”
Clusters last stand? You have to be joking. It is about as real as the AresI test flight. At least they have tested the escape system for Orion. The “dragon” does not even have one yet. And you can’t pull a system like that out of your butt. Falcon will never put a human being in orbit- and it will be lucky to even put satellites up before going into chapter 11. It is a joke.
“a heavy lift vehicle that is capable of going beyond LEO, but constrained to using much of Shuttle existing technology, is kind of like taking a 1970s VW bus and trying to make a 2010 Escalade.”
You are wrong; chemicals only produce so much energy and alloys only take so much heat. It is why steam turbines do not put out any more power than they did a century ago. The SSME’s and SRB’s are awesome machines with no competitors today or in the near future. The RS-68 is pretty awesome- cheap and expendable, but it has an inferior ISP to the SSME.