Yesterday’s Texas primaries contained few surprises, despite an usually large number of challengers for incumbents. Ralph Hall, the ranking member of the House Science and Technology Committee, defeated five challengers in the Republican primary, getting 57% of the vote. And in perhaps the most widely-watched race, incumbent Gov. Rick Perry defeated Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican primary for governor, getting just over 50% in the three-person race and thus avoiding a runoff with Hutchison.
This raises the question of how much longer Hutchison, one of the more active space advocates in the Senate, will remain in office. During the primary campaign she had originally planned to resign from the Senate to focus full-time on her gubernatorial campaign, then backtracked and decided to remain in office through the primary campaign in order to stay focused on issues like health care reform. She had suggested that she would resign from the Senate later this year regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s race, even though her term in the Senate runs through 2012. Will she remain in office long enough to, for example, work on NASA-specific legislation like the one discussed at a Washington event in January that would extend the shuttle and support development of crewed commercial vehicles to ensure access to the ISS?
(note I support Mayor White for Gov…have contributed to his campaign and will do so in the future)
KBH’s chances for GOV were hurt badly when (as I noted at the time) Mayor White entered the race. Texas is red but swinging purple…as it becomes more urban then rural and as the right wing of the party goes more and more nuts (the 10th amendment people). As the GOP base goes “more right” the rest of the state is drifting toward the center…
Her future in the Senate is to my mind related to who wins the election in 10 for the Gov…if Perry wins then she wont run (in my view) because the state will have swung hard right (he is very unpopular among the non GOP primary voters for a variety of reason…”toll road Rick”) and if White wins the GOV and does well..then she will face a substantive Dem opponent in 12 …
Add into this mix the national situation …ie where does the Obama administration sit in 12. Hard to believe but by this time next year the Presidential campaign will be in its formative stages. Will Obama have so blown the Dem base that he gets a challenger from it? Or will his policies have started to work and he starts shaping up as bullet proof? Will the GOP go with a corporate candidate like Romney or nutty like Palin or someone “unknown”?
Here is the thing to ponder however. Perry hit KBH hard on her pork spending.And how the federal government had gotten completly out of control in terms of spending.
I find it very unlikely that KBH will proffer or be a part of a “large NASA” increase…and suspect that her loss does nothing but solidify the Constellation demise.
I do know that Bill White is working on a space policy.
BTW A dream ticket for 2012…Dean/White.. thats not my only one!.just thinking
Robert G. Oler
A caveat here – I previously supported Nick Lampson and volunteered in two of his campaigns…
Looking at this from Kay Bailey’s point of view – do you give up the prestige of your Senate seat, just to retire to Texas? Do you surrender the influence? She must be tired of Washington, but she really does not have to do much – no one is gonna recall her! She will stay in the Senate – but she might do more from Dallas than DC.
How much she will do remains the question.
The better in Texas is that Kay will find a way to violate that promise in order to “stand up to Obama’s radical agenda.” Since she is a popular Senator, she will get away with it and will be reelected easily in 2012 if she chooses to run again.
Oler’s analysis (see above) is just plain nuts and is so divorced from objective reality that it is like a fever dream. Texas is not “going purple” nor did Kay’s support for NASA even come up during the governor’s race.
A Dean/White ticket would be a hoot, though. The demented joined with the deadly dull.
I’m more than a little amused by someone who calls me an extremist for agreeing with the people who wrote the Constitution, and calls others extremists for supporting the whole Bill of Rights, is a Howard Dean supporter.
Yeeeaaaaarrrrrrghhhh!
By the way, a Bill White space policy would be entertaining. Does he support the President even if it means deep sixing the economy of Clear Lake City or does he defy the President and oppose it?
One suspects that Perry will define White as someone willing to do the former.
CharlesTheSpaceGuy wrote @ March 3rd, 2010 at 11:16 am
Looking at this from Kay Bailey’s point of view – do you give up the prestige of your Senate seat, just to retire to Texas? Do you surrender the influence?..
Kay is not going to resign. ONe has to understand why she ran for Gov.
Rick Perry is the Harry Reid of Texas…he is doomed in the general unless the other side nominates someone completly idiotic (and I dont know about NV but Bill White is not that person). Perry has so botched his time as Gov that he is made the party leaders in the state (mostly Daddy Bush but some others) concerned that the party is on the way to being the party of the “creator fearing rural uneducated” but that is about all. As it stands now Perry has an approval rating near the low 40’s…even in a red state Rasmussen poll he doesnt get above 50 polling against a virtually unknown Bill White. Perry is the Sarah Palin of the state.
What KBH could not imagine is that she could not put together a campaign which would pull enough of the city moderates and left leaners (the major population centers went blue a long time ago) to beat a nut like Perry…what she did not count on is White getting into the Gov race…20 years ago (sigh) bush the last appeared on the scene with the same politics that Rick Perry is (unless something happens…) in my view going to get his hat handed to him.
Texas is going purple because 1) the population centers are going tha way and 2) the state is going more urban and 3) the GOP is trending nutty.
KBH would have normally appealed to that “moderate” block, but again there was White.
Kay ran for Gov in my view to try and moderate the state GOP and in large part because she is tired of the nuts who monopolize GOP politics in the capital. I do not expect her to resign as Senator. As I noted earlier her running for another term depends on a few things…
Robert G. Oler
Mark R. Whittington wrote @ March 3rd, 2010 at 1:20 pm
By the way, a Bill White space policy would be entertaining. Does he support the President even if it means deep sixing the economy of Clear Lake City or does he defy the President and oppose it?..
goofy on all respects.
First the Clear Lake economy. I live in Clear Lake (well it is one of my residences…lol) and know about the local economy then you can even imagine. this is not the Clear lake of Apollo days. The big employeers in Clear Lake are 1) medical care and manufactoring, 2) oil/gas/energy and 3) environmental or commutting to jobs in Houston proper or space…(which order those fall in depends on which study one believes). Sometime ago (and it has only gotten better since) when “Freedom” looked like it was going to be canceled with nothing in its place “Claydef” (Clear Lake economic development foundation) did a study and found that the cancellation would affect only 1 or 2 in 10 households (depending again on how you count).
I was surprised to find out that the Army and the “drone” programs are some of the major employers in the area.
the end of Constellation will have some impact, but “deep sixing” is another one of your hyperbolic statements like “rutan hates”….goofy
As for White. He will carry Houston and by large numbers. I’d love to see Perry try and ditz spaceX near Waco!
I doubt space or human spaceflight will be an issue in the campaign…and I imagine White is hoping the best Perry can do is try and drag Obama into it. That would ensure Perry is out in Nov.
Robert G. Oler
Rand Simberg wrote @ March 3rd, 2010 at 1:10 pm
I’m more than a little amused by someone who calls me an extremist for agreeing with the people who wrote the Constitution, ..
that is so funny
Robert G. Oler
Oler, what is even more amusing is someone who thinks Howard Dean is sane and Sarah Palin is not.
Perry will almost certainly win a third term hands down. Texas is an relatively good shape (compared to, say, California or Michigan) and there is no reason to fire him, as Kay found out last night. Bill White is unknown outside Houston, but will shortly be known as a Barack Obama Democrat, whether that is fair or not.
Space will only be an issue in the general if Bill White is foolish enough to support the Obama plan.
Q: What next for Hutchison?
A: There are rumors she shall introduce an alternate plan for NASA, later today.
Mark R. Whittington wrote @ March 3rd, 2010 at 3:37 pm
Oler, what is even more amusing is someone who thinks Howard Dean is sane and Sarah Palin is not.
Perry will almost certainly win a third term hands down…
oh both of those are as goofy as your statement on Clear Lake. devoid of facts.
Perry could win, anything is possible in politics but “hands down” LOL right now he cannot even break 50 in a poll and thats a red poll (Rasmussen..he peaks at 47) in other polls he is riding at Fortyish percent. Perry is going to be stuck trying to clue together a coalition of the bible bangers, the nutty righters (play that tape about succession), and those who are really gung ho for his Trans Texas Corridor…
White is at 41 percent against Perry (in Rasmussen) and that is with White a relative unknown as you admit outside of Houston.
I have no doubt he is going to try and hang Obama around Perry, because that is all Perry has to run on, he cannot run on what he has done (the state is now in debt)…but White is to smart of a person to do that. There is going to be a race to define White…and White will probably do what he did in Houston…crush the people who try and define him.
We will see…you are the person who knew how Constellation was going to work in 05 and made all the goofy predictions about Iraq…and we know how well those turned out.
as for Dean. His chances in 12 are of course tied directly to where Obama stands in another year or 18 months…and where the GOP thinks it is going.
Palin ah Sister Sarah…..everytime she opens her mouth her approval rating rises among the goofy people but the rest of the country finds her more and more incompetent to be President. But my guess is that the Obama folks are longing for her to be the nominee because at that point the bar for their reelection just got lowered a lot.
To be fair, the currents are in national politics muddied right now. Incumbents of both parties are pretty well hated; the GOP is in complete flux as to where the mass lies in terms of which direction the “foundation” of the party wants to go…and we still have about a year of Obama “pouring concrete” before the final verdict is in on where he stands GOING INTO the presidential numbers.
The question is going to be where both parties “mass out” in terms of the 12 election.
Howard Dean. Dean is a serious politician and has far more gravitas on the issues then Palin can in her wildest dreams imagine. The health care debate illustrates that…at least he knows that “death panels” are not in any bill or proposal “there”. Palin is still making stuff up as she goes.
Robert G. Oler
Bill White…hasnt that already occurred or was that a bogus one? Sorry been a little busy with the flying thing Robert G. Oler
I have no doubt he is going to try and hang Obama around Perry..
obviously that should be “…around White” the editor regrets the error
Robert G. Oler
Last week Rob Coppinger posted excerpts from a draft version and Chris Bergin at nasaspaceflight dot com posted the entire draft.
Word is its been modified to be more NewSpace friendly (one interpretation) and is now being formally introduced. Florida Today story link:
http://flametrench.flatoday.net/2010/03/in-senate-hutchison-echoes-kosmasposey.html
Oler –
“Howard Dean. Dean is a serious politician and has far more gravitas on the issues then Palin can in her wildest dreams imagine.”
And yet she is not a screamer.
Bill White – Looks like Kay means to stay in the Senate for a while.
I am a little “surprised” at the KBH position above. Pretty much she says we should do every thing. I am sure she know it cannot be done. I see no mention of a budget to support the article either. Some political dance knowing full well she’ll get nowhere? Weird.
Mark R. Whittington wrote @ March 3rd, 2010 at 4:47 pm
And yet she is not a screamer…
neither is Howard Dean, unless you are going to take one incident and apply it to his entire life. By that logic then Nixon’s bitter statement “you wont have Nixon to kick around anymore” or any ONE statement that anyone makes becomes the defining measure of their life.
are you that shallow?
Palin is not one event…she is a consistent “book” of goofy statement after another. She is not a dull person, but a person who you have met worked with her on the 08 campaign and his statement about her (and you know he is a player in the GOP) is “she wont do her homework”…
I pushed Palin on the McCain blog before you even knew who she was…what I had no idea of is that she was not willing to do the hard work to be a serious player on the national stage. That fact is now obvious.
Robert G. Oler
Bill White wrote @ March 3rd, 2010 at 4:39 pm
interesting…I saw the earlier drafts and full bill…and talked to some folks in DC about them.
The devil is in the actual wording, details, and funding…but it seems as though this is good news for commercial space
Robert G. Oler
Rand Simberg wrote @ March 3rd, 2010 at 1:10 pm
I’m more than a little amused by someone who calls me an extremist for agreeing with the people who wrote the Constitution…
begin sarcasm:
Don’t you know the people who wrote the Constitution were extremists? I mean, they were a group of people who believed that rights were something that each individual was born with as opposed to granted (or taken away) by some benevolent dictat, err, I mean government. Talk about batty.
You know what they say, one man’s constitution is another man’s toilet paper.
end sarcasm
If I had to guess, and since I don’t live in TX anymore it is just that, Perry may have trouble if the state is in debt as Oler stated above. Not many of the fiscally conservative types will want to vote for someone like that. I can tell you that’s one of the main reasons why Ritter (D) isn’t running for re-election here in CO (that he hasn’t done jack &@#^ in 4 years). His only hope may be to convince the independants that the alternative is worse than he is. Again, since I don’t live there anymore I’ll decline to comment further. It’s for those who live in TX to figure out who their next gov will be.
Ditto for whether or not KBH will stay in the senate. I have no idea, but I do know that the average age for a senator is 63 and there’s a 93 year old (Frank Lautenberg) running for re-election this year and Robert Byrd is even older than that. If she’s younger then them then she’s still a “spring chicken”.
2 cents…
“I am a little ‘surprised’ at the KBH position above. Pretty much she says we should do every thing.”
Yes and no.
On the yes side, the bill extends Shuttle operations, confirms commercial cargo and crew as the preferred solution to meeting NASA’s ETO needs, confirms ISS extension, asks NASA to study HLV acceleration, and asks NASA to articulate a “National Space Transportation System” (but really just a NASA human space transportation) plan.
On the no side, the bill provides no support for Constellation unless NASA determines that Ares I/Orion have a “cost-effective” and “operationally effective” role to play in the “National Space Transportation System” plan. NASA is obviously not going make such a determination under the current NASA Administrator and White House.
Passage of any authorization bill is always an iffy proposition since they’re not required to pass a federal budget and keep the government operating. And even if this bill becomes law, the appropriators would have to provide additional funding, which they almost never do, to make the Shuttle extension the bill supports reality. So it’s a low probability that the Shuttle extension in the bill would become reality.
That said, more important than passage is the message this bill sends to the appropriators (who actually do have to pass a budget to keep the government operating). Sen. Mikulski (chair of NASA’s Senate appropriations subcommittee) sent a letter to Sen. Nelson (chair of NASA’s Senate authorization subcommittee) asking for the authorizers’ inputs. If this is their input, then it’s a vote for commercial crew and cargo and an early HLV over Ares I/Orion. The appropriators are unlikely to come up with the extra billions for Shuttle extension, but within the President’s budget request they have to work within, they’re getting a clear signal from the authorizers to terminate Ares I/Orion and push the basics (commercial crew, HLV, ISS extension) of NASA’s new budget plan forward.
FWIW…
[…] incumbents fared well in Tuesday’s primary elections in Texas, as noted here yesterday, there was one interesting result in the Democratic primary in the 22nd district, currently […]
@Major Tom:
I did not see that in the article, i.e. cost effective and operationally effective. If such then I agree and I think my statement holds about political dance. As for Shuttle it will not go, every one knows that. It should have been a clue as to what KBH is doing. I am sure she is a lot smarter than that.
“On the no side, the bill provides no support for Constellation unless NASA determines that Ares I/Orion have a “cost-effective†and “operationally effective†role to play in the “National Space Transportation System†plan. NASA is obviously not going make such a determination under the current NASA Administrator and White House.”
@Major Tom:
Okay got it in the thread above… LOL if I may, Constellation will not go forward.
[…] of her current term, backing off from an earlier plan to resign at some point this year. Hutchison, who lost the Republican primary for Texas governor earlier this month, had previously indicated that she would step down after the primary regardless of how it turned […]