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Space Politics

Because sometimes the most important orbit is the Beltway…

Archive for November, 2010

Who will be the new leadership of the House Science Committee?

The retirement of Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN), the outgoing chairman of the House Science and Technology Committee, creates a vacancy in the Democratic leadership of the committee. Yesterday one member, Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-TX), formally declared her interest in being ranking member of the committee in the new Congress. “I would fight to ensure that our aviation industry and, NASA specifically, remains strong, and able to undertake each and every new mission that draws them further away from our planet and into depths of scientific discovery,” she said as part of her statement of interest in the position. Her announcement came the same day as another member, Rep. Jerry Costello (D-IL), said he was not interested in being ranking member, preferring to focus his attention on the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

On the newly-majority Republican side, current ranking member Rep. Ralph Hall (R-TX) has already shown an interest in the committee chairmanship. However, two other members are reportedly interested in the post: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) and Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R-WI). Recall that Sensenbrenner served as chairman of the science committee from 1997-2001, and under House GOP rules would have two more years of eligibility as committee chairman.

US and India in space (and space solar power?)

President Obama is currently in India, where he is expected to formally announce on Monday the removal of the Indian space agency ISRO from a US list that restricts exports of some sensitive technologies. The Entity List, as it is formally known, specifies additional requirements for items beyond what’s already required under export control regulations. Currently ISRO and four organizations within it are on the list, requiring a “case-by-case review” for any item on the Commerce Control List for export to those organizations. That restriction dates back to sanctions placed on India and Pakistan for their nuclear tests in the late 1990s.

That move isn’t unexpected: it had been anticipated for weeks in both the US and India. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed on Thursday, former deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage, writing with another former State Department official, R. Nicholas Burns, called on both the White House and Congress to “liberalize U.S. export controls that have an impact on India, including by removing the Indian Space Research Organization (the Indian equivalent to NASA) from the U.S. ‘Entity List.’” However, that appears to be the limit of space-related progress in the president’s visit: Indian media reported last week that it’s unlikely a commercial satellite launch agreement will be completed in time. Such an agreement would make it easier for US-built commercial satellites, or satellites with US-built components, to be launched on Indian vehicles.

A few people, though, are seeking much grander visions of US-Indian cooperation in space. At a press conference in Washington on Thursday, American and Indian officials announced the creation of Kalam-NSS Energy Initiative to promote the development of space-based solar power (SBSP) in the two nations. The near-term goal of the initiative is to arrange a bilateral meeting of Indian and American experts on the topic in May in Huntsville, Alabama, in conjunction with the International Space Development Conference (ISDC), the annual conference of the National Space Society (NSS).

The effort might be dismissed as a minor effort of a few people to promote what’s widely considered a fringe topic, but it does have the backing of a prominent individual on the Indian side: former president A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, who participated in Thursday’s press conference by phone from India. Kalam spoke of the need to increase energy production to meet the needs of a modernizing India, without going into details about how the two countries might cooperation in SBSP beyond holding a joint meeting. Asked if the topic might come up in the meeting between President Obama and Indian Prime Minister Singh in New Delhi, Kalam suggested that it should instead be presented at a future meeting of G8 or G20 nations.

Also unclear is what India would bring to the table in terms of its role in developing a SBSP system. Asked what unique capabilities India could offer, Kalam discussed the development of what he called a “hyperplane”, a reusable spaceplane concept, something he said India could cooperate with the US and other nations on. (Given the difficulties any nation has had in developing RLVs, and the challenges India has faced in even building a cryogenic upper stage for its GSLV expendable rocket, jumping ahead to a “hyperplane” may seem a bit of a stretch.) T.K. Alex, director of the ISRO Satellite Centre and the Indian lead of the Kalam-NSS Energy Initiative, said later at the press conference that India could also contribute in the development of high-efficiency and lightweight solar cells. NSS CEO Mark Hopkins suggested a different role for India, saying that “a combination of American technology and the ability of India to do a lot of low-cost manufacturing” could be essential to any future success of SBSP.

Giffords wins reelection

It took three days, but late Friday Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) declared victory in her fight for reelection to Arizona’s 8th district, narrowly defeating Republican Jesse Kelly, who conceded the race in a statement. Giffords, who had been the chair of the House Science and Technology Committee’s space subcommittee, will now be, at best, ranking member of that committee in the new Congress with the Republican takeover of the House.

Meanwhile, in the neighboring 7th district, self-identified “rocket scientist” Ruth McClung lost her bid to oust Rep. Raúl Grijalva, with the Democratic congressman declaring victory Thursday night. However, McClung told the AP that she would not formally concede until remaining outstanding ballots were counted, even as Grijalva’s lead widened.

Fox News examines (briefly) the future of NASA funding

A brief segment on Fox News this morning features a congressman and a space advocate talking (although not debating) what the Republican takeover of the House means for NASA:

Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL) (an odd choice, given that he doesn’t play a major role in space issues, although he does sit on the full House Science and Technology Committee) claims that NASA is a “national security issue” and that the Obama Administration “cut back on spending” for NASA. “I think space is a necessity,” he said, suggesting he would seek to protect the agency’s budget from potential cuts. Berin Szoka of the Space Frontier Foundation played up the commercial aspects of the administration’s plan. “In the short term, quite frankly, it doesn’t matter whether we’re sending astronauts up into orbit,” he said. “What matters is, is NASA going to build a commercial sector that can make our presence in space sustainable?” Unfortunately, there was no opportunity in the brief segment for the two to debate their viewpoints.

Future budget battles

Another aspect of the election outcome is a new focus on budgets and spending. A major concern is the new Republican leadership would seek to make sharp cuts in spending across the board, including for NASA. Back in September the House GOP leadership proposed rolling back spending to FY2008 levels in its “Pledge to America”, which would trim NASA’s budget from the $19 billion proposed for FY2011 by nearly $2 billion. Such cuts would put additional stresses on the budget that some believe is already to small to carry out everything NASA is tasked to do in the new authorization bill on its current schedule.

Can NASA escape those cuts, if they are in fact pushed through Congress? In an Florida Today editorial Thursday, the paper made a plea to spare the agency. Budget cuts “should be done responsibly and not at the expense of investments that advance America’s leadership in science and technology,” they argue. “That’s precisely what NASA is all about and why possible GOP-led cuts to its budget would be ruinous.” The paper made a particular request to Rep.-elect Sandy Adams (R-FL), who defeated Democrat Suzanne Kosmas to represent the district that includes KSC, and Sen.-elect Marco Rubio (R-FL), to protect NASA’s budget.

In Huntsville, officials are hopeful that Republicans will spare NASA. “Republicans have already taken on the president’s space policy and beat him,” local attorney Mark McDaniel, claimed in comments to the Huntsville Times. “The space policy we have now is a Republican-driven policy.” (That’s an odd claim, since the policy passed by Congress started in the Senate with strong cooperation among both Republican and Democratic members.) That, McDaniel argues, will keep NASA out of the “budget-cutting bulls-eye”.

Others are more skeptical. “A key question is whether the new Congress will view NASA as an investment in the nation’s future or a drain on the economy,” Bill Adkins, principal at the Center for Space Strategic Studies, told Space News. “Support for most NASA programs is pretty strong, but that strength has not been tested in the kind of environment we seem to be heading into.” Some budget cuts, he added, could actually be useful, as they “may actually provide clarity to the choices the agency faces and hasten the process of focusing on solutions.” Provided, of course, that the cuts don’t go too far.

Marcia Smith, in a commentary on SpacePolicyOnline.com, concludes that budget cuts of some kind for the space agency are inevitable. “If Barack Obama wants to get reelected two years from now, he will have to join the bandwagon to cut federal spending,” she argues. The administration’s proposal to increase NASA’s budget by $6 billion over five years “was always just a proposal and it is difficult to believe that it can survive the current economic and political climate.”

Of course, it was clear for some time that the next Congress would be more fiscally conservative than the current one, given the concerns about trillion-dollar budget deficits, and the administration was planning accordingly. Recall that back in June, a joint memo by then-OMB director Peter Orszag and then-White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel asked federal agencies to volunteer “lowest impact” programs to be cut to obtain a five-percent overall budget cut in the FY2012 budget submissions. The outcome of the election makes it only more likely that there will be budget cuts of some kind.

However, what form those cuts will take, including their magnitude and whether NASA will be either protected or particularly victimized by them remains unclear. While Republicans have control of the House now, Democrats remain in charge of the Senate, with the chair and ranking member of the Senate appropriations subcommittee whose jurisdiction includes NASA, Sens. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) and Richard Shelby (R-AL), easily winning reelection. That may make it more difficult for House Republicans to get sharp budget cuts through; however, Democrats eager to retain their now narrower majority in the Senate may be willing to go along with some cuts. Also, how those cuts will affect specific NASA programs remains to be seen: outgoing House Science Committee chairman Bart Gordon (D-TN) told Florida Today that it would be “hard to move forward with this new commercial track” should NASA spending be reduced.

One near-term milestone for the agency, and federal spending in general, is what Congress does with the FY2011 appropriations bills still not passed when it returns in mid-November for a lame duck session. Rep. Donna Edwards (D-MD) told Florida Today that it’s “hard to see how we would move through new spending package” during the session. That suggests that at least some parts of the government may continue under continuing resolution funding into 2011, when Republicans then take over and could make an initial, early effort to trim federal spending.

Laying claim to committee posts

With the Republicans retaking control of the House, the race is underway to seek seats on various committees as well as their chairmanships. Ralph Hall (R-TX), the current ranking member of the House Science and Technology Committee, is in line to chair the committee in January, and this week issued a press release that made it sound like he was staking him claim on the chairmanship. “I look forward to working with current members on the Science and Technology Committee, as well as hearing from our new members, to formulate and advance an agenda that keeps our nation moving forward,” he said in the statement. He cited several “key areas” that the committee should conduct oversight of, none of which is directly related to space policy: “climate change, scientific integrity, energy research and development (R&D), cybersecurity, and science education.” It’s unclear yet if any other member, such as Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), will challenge Hall for the committee chairmanship.

Mo Brooks, the Republican who won Alabama’s 5th District in Tuesday’s election, vowed he would “shield NASA”, along with defense and law enforcement, from budget cuts. Interestingly, though, he did not indicate he was seeking a position on the House Appropriations Committee, where he could play a role in stopping such cuts. Instead, he said he was seeking posts on two to three committees, including the Science and Technology Committee.

Oberstar loses

Of interest to NewSpace advocates: longtime Congressman Jim Oberstar (D-MN) lost to Republican newcomer Chip Cravaack in the early morning hours today. Oberstar was going for a 19th term in the House. He is best known in space circles for leading the opposition six years ago to the Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act (CSLAA) in the House, citing concerns about enabling a “tombstone mentality” for commercial spaceflight. In 2005 he introduced legislation to try and roll back some of the provisions of the CSLAA, but that legislation went no where and he had since not been actively involved in commercial spaceflight legislation or regulation. There had been some concerns two years ago that he would have another shot to take action on the industry, had he so desired, as Secretary of Transportation, but he decided to remain in Congress. Few commercial spaceflight advocates, though, will likely be mourning his defeat.

Brooks wins, Giffords with a narrow lead

Republican Mo Brooks won the race for Alabama’s 5th district, which includes NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, defeating Democrat Steve Raby 58-42 percent. Brooks, during a debate with Raby last month, claimed that he would named “to at least two key Congressional Committees that would have a major say in steering funding toward NASA”; as previously noted, it’s not clear what he meant, since only appropriators “steer funding” to NASA or other agencies. Brooks succeeds Parker Griffith, the one-term Democrat-turned-Republican who lost to Brooks in the Republican primary.

In Arizona’s 8th district, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) has a narrow lead over Republican challenger Jesse Kelly: less than 2,500 votes out of nearly 250,000 cast. Even if she wins, though, she will lose her chairmanship of the House Science and Technology Committee’s space subcommittee as Republicans take control of the House. In the neighboring 7th district, meanwhile, incumbent Raúl Grijalva (D) also has a narrow lead over “rocket scientist” Ruth McClung (R), although with far fewer votes cast overall.

Grayson, Kosmas losing

Two of the space-related House races to watch are not going well for the incumbents: according to Florida’s Division of Elections, Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL24) is well behind Sandy Adams (R) and Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL8) is also trailing Daniel Webster (R).

Update 8:55pm: the AP has called the FL-24 race for Adams over Kosmas, while Grayson has conceded to Webster.

Four races to watch tonight

Today is election day, and by late tonight Congress may have a very different look if projections of major Republican gains in the House and Senate hold up. For space policy watchers, there are a handful of races to take note of as the results roll in:

Florida 24th District: one of the few places in the country where space policy is a major campaign issue, thanks to the presence of the Kennedy Space Center, Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D) is in danger of losing to Republican challenger Sandy Adams (the New York Times’s FiveThirtyEight gives Kosmas only an 18% chance of winning reelection today.) Kosmas has been a supporter of the agency’s new direction as defined in the NASA authorization bill passed this fall, while Adams has been more vague on the subject, pushing for a shuttle extension that is highly problematic, at best, at this late stage, as they discussed in recent interviews in the Daytona Beach News-Journal.

Alabama 5th District: Mo Brooks (R) and Steve Raby (D) are running to succeed Parker Griffith, the Democrat-turned-Republican who lost to Brooks in the Republican primary for the district that includes the Marshall Space Flight Center. [The original version of this post incorrectly identified the current representative of the district.] In a recent debate the two candidates took questionable stands on space issues, with Brooks claiming he would be named to at least two key committees that govern NASA funding (only the appropriations committee handles this) while Raby said he would seek to extend the shuttle program (and, on his web site, vowing to defeat the proposal to end Constellation, which has been effectively ended by the new authorization bill). FiveThirtyEight suggests that Brooks is heavily favored to win.

Arizona 8th District: while not a “space” district, it is home to Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), current chair of the space subcommittee of the House Science and Technology committee. Giffords is in a tight race for reelection against Republican Jesse Kelly; projections have Giffords with a narrow but growing lead. However, even if Giffords wins reelection, it looks likely she will lose her chairmanship of the subcommittee with Republicans expected to take control of the House.

Florida 8th District: Rep. Alan Grayson (D) does sit on the House Science and Technology Committee and has become famous (or infamous, depending on your point of view) for critical questioning of NASA administrator Charles Bolden in one hearing and for colorful rhetoric (calling the commercial crew development program in the NASA budget proposal “the epitome of socialism and corporate welfare”). Grayson is behind in the polls to his Republican challenger, Daniel Webster, although space policy hasn’t played a noticeable role.

Many other races that involve key House and Senate members on space issues aren’t nearly as competitive. For example, in the Senate, Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), chair of the CJS subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee; Richard Shelby (R-AL), ranking member of that subcommittee; and David Vitter (R-LA), ranking member of the space subcommittee of the Senate Commerce Committee, are all up for reelection today, but all are expected to win easily (FiveThirtyEight, for example, gives Mikulski and Shelby 100% chances to win, while Vitter is given 99.5% odds of winning.)

In the House, Reps. Ralph Hall (R-TX) and Pete Olson (R-TX), the ranking members of the full House Science and Technology Committee and its space subcommittee, respectively, are expected to win easily, and would be in line to chair those committees assuming Republicans to gain control of the House tonight.

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